War threatens OPEC production and supply, causing crude oil futures to jump sharply.
2026-03-07 01:58:05
On Friday (March 6), crude oil prices surged during the US trading session, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil hitting $92, a new high since October 2023; the international benchmark Brent crude oil futures price broke through $94 per barrel.
Although today's oil price rally was not driven by a single sudden event, the price movement indicates that traders' assessment of the impact of the US-Iran conflict is clearly biased towards a "long-term" scenario, meaning that the market expects the war to last more than two weeks.
Oil prices retreated slightly overnight, but this appears to be merely a brief respite for buyers, a period of consolidation before a new round of price increases. This surge occurred just before the opening of the US futures market. Today's price spike stems from bullish traders' expectations that the conflict in the Middle East will spread to other oil-producing countries. Currently, oil production in other OPEC member countries is disrupted, and shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a standstill.
Qatar's Energy Minister: Oil prices could rise to $150 within weeks if tankers are unable to pass.
Oil prices have yet to reach the $100 mark, and reports indicate that Qatar's energy minister stated the conflict could lead Gulf energy exporters to halt all oil shipments to the region within days, with some traders already anticipating higher prices.
Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Qaeda said that if oil tankers are unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices could surge to $150 a barrel within weeks.
Iran's retaliation caught the US off guard, prompting the US to urgently formulate a response plan.
While some U.S. officials are still saying they are considering curbing excessive speculation in the futures market, others are suggesting the conflict could escalate further.
Both developments indicate that the United States was not adequately prepared for the retaliation following Iran's initial bombing last week and can only formulate contingency plans to prevent oil prices from soaring to triple digits and remaining at high levels for an extended period.
Some of the measures taken by the United States to curb the rapid rise in oil prices include:
India has been granted a 30-day exemption, allowing it to resume purchasing Russian oil.
An unnamed White House official told Reuters that the U.S. Treasury Department may intervene in the crude oil futures market to curb soaring energy prices.
Is the market pricing in the present moment, or in the post-price war outlook?
One question that analysts are trying to clarify is whether the market is pricing in the current situation of limited or even near-disruption of Gulf oil supply, or is pricing in the future course of Iran after the war ends.
A break above $84.52 would target $87.63, which would be a key trigger point for a move towards $95.00 and $100.00.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: FX678)
From a technical perspective, this round of gains is a typical example of a strong momentum breakout above previous highs. Not long ago, crude oil prices strongly broke through previous resistance levels of $84.52 and $87.63.
Oil prices may accelerate their upward trend, targeting $95.00, which would be the threshold for reaching $100.00.
Although today's oil price rally was not driven by a single sudden event, the price movement indicates that traders' assessment of the impact of the US-Iran conflict is clearly biased towards a "long-term" scenario, meaning that the market expects the war to last more than two weeks.
Oil prices retreated slightly overnight, but this appears to be merely a brief respite for buyers, a period of consolidation before a new round of price increases. This surge occurred just before the opening of the US futures market. Today's price spike stems from bullish traders' expectations that the conflict in the Middle East will spread to other oil-producing countries. Currently, oil production in other OPEC member countries is disrupted, and shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a standstill.
Qatar's Energy Minister: Oil prices could rise to $150 within weeks if tankers are unable to pass.
Oil prices have yet to reach the $100 mark, and reports indicate that Qatar's energy minister stated the conflict could lead Gulf energy exporters to halt all oil shipments to the region within days, with some traders already anticipating higher prices.
Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Qaeda said that if oil tankers are unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices could surge to $150 a barrel within weeks.
Iran's retaliation caught the US off guard, prompting the US to urgently formulate a response plan.
While some U.S. officials are still saying they are considering curbing excessive speculation in the futures market, others are suggesting the conflict could escalate further.
Both developments indicate that the United States was not adequately prepared for the retaliation following Iran's initial bombing last week and can only formulate contingency plans to prevent oil prices from soaring to triple digits and remaining at high levels for an extended period.
Some of the measures taken by the United States to curb the rapid rise in oil prices include:
India has been granted a 30-day exemption, allowing it to resume purchasing Russian oil.
An unnamed White House official told Reuters that the U.S. Treasury Department may intervene in the crude oil futures market to curb soaring energy prices.
Is the market pricing in the present moment, or in the post-price war outlook?
One question that analysts are trying to clarify is whether the market is pricing in the current situation of limited or even near-disruption of Gulf oil supply, or is pricing in the future course of Iran after the war ends.
A break above $84.52 would target $87.63, which would be a key trigger point for a move towards $95.00 and $100.00.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: FX678)
From a technical perspective, this round of gains is a typical example of a strong momentum breakout above previous highs. Not long ago, crude oil prices strongly broke through previous resistance levels of $84.52 and $87.63.
Oil prices may accelerate their upward trend, targeting $95.00, which would be the threshold for reaching $100.00.
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