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[Caixin Futures Energy and Chemical Sector Overview: Crude Oil Fluctuates at High Levels, Methanol Shows Strong Volatility] ⑴ Crude Oil: Iran's new leader made a tough statement, saying the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. The Iranian president confirmed Larijani's death and reportedly will increase attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities. The US may also attack Iranian oil export ports. Currently, the US and Iran remain in a standoff, with no signs of easing. The energy and chemical sector is expected to remain highly volatile at high levels. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Attacks on Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities have increased, leading to production cuts by oil-producing countries. China has a high dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil, with Iranian fuel oil imports accounting for 20% of domestic imports. With the Strait of Hormuz not yet open, the supply gap is unlikely to recover in the short term, resulting in high-level, strong volatility in prices. ⑶ Glass: The North China market is mainly stable, with manufacturers reporting acceptable shipments and downstream buyers purchasing on demand. Last week, inventory decreased by 4.76% week-on-week. One production line was started up, and two production lines were operating at reduced capacity, bringing the industry's current daily output to 145,800 tons. With supply remaining low and peak season expectations, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. (4) Soda Ash: The market trend is stabilizing with light trading. Plant operations are stable, supply remains high, and capacity utilization is 85.79%. Inventory decreased by 28,200 tons compared to last Thursday. While energy costs provide some support, high supply in the medium term weakens the driving force, and a wide-range, slightly weak fluctuation is expected. (5) Caustic Soda: Inventory in the Zibo market is low, and prices have risen slightly; prices in the Lunan market have increased due to order support. Tight raw material supply has led to reduced workloads for related companies, coupled with overseas plant shutdowns benefiting exports. Futures prices are at a significant premium; if geopolitical tensions ease, volatility will be greater, and increased fluctuations are expected. (6) Methanol: Domestic market prices generally rose, with spot prices in Taicang reaching 2925 yuan/ton. Futures prices fluctuated with a slight upward bias, and open interest increased significantly. Imported supplies failed to arrive in time, resulting in a decrease of 51,100 tons in port inventory this week. Geopolitical conflicts have caused delays and reductions in imports, leading to a slightly upward-trending methanol market.