March 26th Financial Breakfast: Markets assess signs of easing tensions in the Middle East; gold prices face a crucial decision at the $4500 level; oil prices await further statements from Iran.
2026-03-26 07:25:02
On Thursday (March 26, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,500 per ounce. Despite the continued uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, the narrowing gains in oil prices provided support, easing inflation concerns and curbing expectations of interest rate hikes. US crude oil was trading around $90.93 per barrel. Although the Iranian foreign minister stated that he had no intention of holding negotiations to end the conflict, the market was assessing signs of easing tensions in the Middle East.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, mainly supported by lower oil prices and investor hopes for a possible easing of tensions in the Middle East. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.66%, the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.77%.
Despite ongoing disagreements between Iran and the United States regarding a ceasefire agreement, any signs of communication boosted market sentiment. The energy sector underperformed, while materials and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains. In terms of individual stocks, Arm surged 16.4% on expectations of a new AI chip, aerospace stocks generally rose on news of SpaceX's potential IPO, and airline and cruise stocks benefited from falling oil prices. Trading was active, but volatility is expected to remain high.
Gold prices rose on Wednesday, with spot gold briefly touching above $4,600 an ounce, mainly supported by falling oil prices easing inflation concerns and dampening expectations of interest rate hikes, despite lingering uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.
Analysts pointed out that gold prices showed a technical rebound, while optimism that related hostile actions by Iran might ease also provided support. If inflation concerns ease further, gold prices are expected to rise back to $5,000. However, news that the Pentagon plans to send more airborne troops to the Gulf region still added uncertainty to the situation, and spot silver, platinum and palladium showed mixed results.
Oil prices rose more than 3% on Wednesday, with US crude returning above $90 a barrel, as the market assessed signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. Investors focused on Iran's review of a US proposal to end the Gulf War, while Iran's foreign minister stated that he had no intention of negotiating an end to the conflict.
A senior Iranian political and security official stated that Iran will end the war at its own discretion and once its proposed conditions are met, and will not allow US President Trump to dictate when the war will end.
The dollar strengthened against major currencies on Wednesday, with the dollar index rising 0.44% to 99.62, as markets remained skeptical about a potential easing of tensions between the US and Iran, and traders weighed global inflation trends and remained cautious. Despite Iran considering a US proposal to end the Gulf conflict, Iran's negative response and denial of direct negotiations unsettled investors.
U.S. import prices saw their biggest increase in nearly four years in February, further confirming accumulating inflationary pressures. Federal funds futures indicate that market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December have risen, while a week ago the market expected a rate cut.
Among major currencies, the euro fell 0.39% to $1.1562, the pound fell 0.37% to $1.3362, the dollar rose 0.49% to 159.46 yen, and the Australian dollar fell 0.63% to $0.6949.
The US and Israel temporarily removed the Iranian parliament speaker and foreign minister from their purge list.
The United States and Israel have temporarily removed two senior Iranian officials, Foreign Minister Araqchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, from their purge lists for four to five days. Washington is exploring possible ceasefire negotiations. Sources say Trump has opened the door to talks to end the war.
Airport security lines in the US hit record highs; funding shortages leave TSA facing labor shortages.
The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) warned that weeks of funding shutdowns by the Secretary of Homeland Security have led to staff shortages, long passenger queues, and escalating unrest across the country, putting severe pressure on airport security. "This has resulted in the longest wait times in TSA history, with queues exceeding 4.5 hours in some cases," Acting TSA Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill told lawmakers Wednesday. She added that the agency has lost more than 480 security screening employees during the funding disruption.
Iranian Foreign Minister: There are currently no negotiations with the United States at all.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that the US talking about negotiations now is itself an admission of defeat; didn't they previously claim unconditional surrender? So why are they now mobilizing senior officials for negotiations? He added that there are currently no negotiations with the US at all; the US is merely sending messages through various mediators, and sending messages through mediators is not the same as negotiating.
The Prime Minister ordered the destruction of as many Iranian military industrial facilities as possible within 48 hours.
According to a report by The New York Times on the 25th, citing a senior Israeli official, and given the increasing possibility of negotiations between the United States and Iran, and concerns that US President Trump might abruptly end the war, Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered on the 24th to destroy as many Iranian military industrial facilities as possible within the next 48 hours. (Xinhua)
Netanyahu vows to "dismantle Hezbollah".
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on the 25th that Israel is establishing a larger buffer zone in Lebanon to counter the threat of Hezbollah anti-tank missiles. Netanyahu believes that the threat posed by Hezbollah to northern Israel "no longer exists," and the focus now is on "dismantling Hezbollah." (CCTV News)
US media: The White House plans to meet in Pakistan this weekend to discuss a ceasefire plan.
Two senior U.S. government officials disclosed to the media on the 25th that the U.S. is trying to arrange a meeting in Pakistan this weekend to discuss a "withdrawal plan" to end the U.S. war with Iran. CNN, citing these two officials as sources, reported that according to current plans, U.S. Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan, and other senior government officials may accompany him. However, the specific time, location, and list of participants are still uncertain. The meeting may also be held in Turkey. The report did not mention whether Iran might send representatives to the ceasefire negotiations. (Xinhua)
Iranian military sources: Iran may open other fronts if provoked.
On the 25th local time, an Iranian military source stated that Iran is continuously monitoring and understanding the movements and changes on the enemy's front lines. If the enemy attempts to conduct ground operations on Iranian islands or other territories, or increases Iran's defense costs through maritime activities in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, Iran will respond by opening additional fronts. The source said that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the world's most important strategic straits, and Iran has both the will and the capability to pose a threat to it. He stated that if the United States attempts to find a solution to the Strait of Hormuz issue through "foolish actions," it should be wary of allowing another strait to become its new predicament. The source also emphasized that Iran is fully prepared for further escalation of the situation. (CCTV News)
Iran reiterates that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal.
A spokesperson for the Iranian Armed Forces stated: "The situation in the Straits is irreversible. When to take action is up to us. We have revised the rules of passage. The enemy and its related forces have no right to pass. The decision to issue passage permits is in our hands. The more you try to avoid escalating the war, the stronger the will of our people and the strength of our armed forces will become."
US House Speaker: US military "will not conduct ground combat" in Iran
On March 25 local time, it was learned that US House Speaker Boris Johnson stated that the war with Iran is "nearing its end and its objectives have been achieved," while emphasizing that the US troop buildup in the Middle East is a warning to Iran, and stating that "there will be no ground combat." The Trump administration has recently been reported to be sending additional ground troops to the Middle East. The 31st and 11th Marine Expeditionary Units, comprising several thousand troops, are already en route, and combat units under the Army's 82nd Airborne Division are also preparing to go to the Middle East. (CCTV News)
Iran says it will not allow Trump to decide the timing of the ceasefire.
Iran's Press TV reported today (March 25), citing an unnamed senior Iranian political and security official, that Iran will end the war at its own discretion, once its proposed conditions are met, and will not allow US President Trump to dictate when the war ends. The official stated that Iran's conditions include: the opposing side ceasing its "aggressive" actions; establishing a robust and effective guarantee mechanism to prevent a recurrence of war; clearly defining war losses and ensuring reparations; a complete cessation of military operations on all fronts, including a halt to strikes against various "resistance forces"; and recognition of Iran's legitimate right to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV International News)
my country is accelerating the establishment of a long-term care insurance system to cover all citizens.
On March 25, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Establishment of a Long-Term Care Insurance System," clarifying the establishment of a long-term care insurance system that is adapted to my country's basic national conditions, covers the entire population, integrates urban and rural areas, is fair and unified, safe and standardized, and sustainable. The long-term care insurance system is a social insurance system that provides services or financial guarantees for the basic living care and closely related medical care of disabled persons. It is an important component of my country's social security system and a crucial part of implementing the national strategy of actively addressing population aging. The Opinions make arrangements from aspects such as establishing a policy system that integrates urban and rural areas, establishing a stable and sustainable financing mechanism, implementing fair and appropriate benefit guarantees, and establishing a scientific and standardized management and operation mechanism. (Xinhua News Agency)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, mainly supported by lower oil prices and investor hopes for a possible easing of tensions in the Middle East. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.66%, the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.77%.
Despite ongoing disagreements between Iran and the United States regarding a ceasefire agreement, any signs of communication boosted market sentiment. The energy sector underperformed, while materials and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains. In terms of individual stocks, Arm surged 16.4% on expectations of a new AI chip, aerospace stocks generally rose on news of SpaceX's potential IPO, and airline and cruise stocks benefited from falling oil prices. Trading was active, but volatility is expected to remain high.
Gold Market
Gold prices rose on Wednesday, with spot gold briefly touching above $4,600 an ounce, mainly supported by falling oil prices easing inflation concerns and dampening expectations of interest rate hikes, despite lingering uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.
Analysts pointed out that gold prices showed a technical rebound, while optimism that related hostile actions by Iran might ease also provided support. If inflation concerns ease further, gold prices are expected to rise back to $5,000. However, news that the Pentagon plans to send more airborne troops to the Gulf region still added uncertainty to the situation, and spot silver, platinum and palladium showed mixed results.
oil market
Oil prices rose more than 3% on Wednesday, with US crude returning above $90 a barrel, as the market assessed signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. Investors focused on Iran's review of a US proposal to end the Gulf War, while Iran's foreign minister stated that he had no intention of negotiating an end to the conflict.
A senior Iranian political and security official stated that Iran will end the war at its own discretion and once its proposed conditions are met, and will not allow US President Trump to dictate when the war will end.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar strengthened against major currencies on Wednesday, with the dollar index rising 0.44% to 99.62, as markets remained skeptical about a potential easing of tensions between the US and Iran, and traders weighed global inflation trends and remained cautious. Despite Iran considering a US proposal to end the Gulf conflict, Iran's negative response and denial of direct negotiations unsettled investors.
U.S. import prices saw their biggest increase in nearly four years in February, further confirming accumulating inflationary pressures. Federal funds futures indicate that market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December have risen, while a week ago the market expected a rate cut.
Among major currencies, the euro fell 0.39% to $1.1562, the pound fell 0.37% to $1.3362, the dollar rose 0.49% to 159.46 yen, and the Australian dollar fell 0.63% to $0.6949.
International News
The US and Israel temporarily removed the Iranian parliament speaker and foreign minister from their purge list.
The United States and Israel have temporarily removed two senior Iranian officials, Foreign Minister Araqchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, from their purge lists for four to five days. Washington is exploring possible ceasefire negotiations. Sources say Trump has opened the door to talks to end the war.
Airport security lines in the US hit record highs; funding shortages leave TSA facing labor shortages.
The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) warned that weeks of funding shutdowns by the Secretary of Homeland Security have led to staff shortages, long passenger queues, and escalating unrest across the country, putting severe pressure on airport security. "This has resulted in the longest wait times in TSA history, with queues exceeding 4.5 hours in some cases," Acting TSA Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill told lawmakers Wednesday. She added that the agency has lost more than 480 security screening employees during the funding disruption.
Iranian Foreign Minister: There are currently no negotiations with the United States at all.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that the US talking about negotiations now is itself an admission of defeat; didn't they previously claim unconditional surrender? So why are they now mobilizing senior officials for negotiations? He added that there are currently no negotiations with the US at all; the US is merely sending messages through various mediators, and sending messages through mediators is not the same as negotiating.
The Prime Minister ordered the destruction of as many Iranian military industrial facilities as possible within 48 hours.
According to a report by The New York Times on the 25th, citing a senior Israeli official, and given the increasing possibility of negotiations between the United States and Iran, and concerns that US President Trump might abruptly end the war, Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered on the 24th to destroy as many Iranian military industrial facilities as possible within the next 48 hours. (Xinhua)
Netanyahu vows to "dismantle Hezbollah".
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on the 25th that Israel is establishing a larger buffer zone in Lebanon to counter the threat of Hezbollah anti-tank missiles. Netanyahu believes that the threat posed by Hezbollah to northern Israel "no longer exists," and the focus now is on "dismantling Hezbollah." (CCTV News)
US media: The White House plans to meet in Pakistan this weekend to discuss a ceasefire plan.
Two senior U.S. government officials disclosed to the media on the 25th that the U.S. is trying to arrange a meeting in Pakistan this weekend to discuss a "withdrawal plan" to end the U.S. war with Iran. CNN, citing these two officials as sources, reported that according to current plans, U.S. Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan, and other senior government officials may accompany him. However, the specific time, location, and list of participants are still uncertain. The meeting may also be held in Turkey. The report did not mention whether Iran might send representatives to the ceasefire negotiations. (Xinhua)
Iranian military sources: Iran may open other fronts if provoked.
On the 25th local time, an Iranian military source stated that Iran is continuously monitoring and understanding the movements and changes on the enemy's front lines. If the enemy attempts to conduct ground operations on Iranian islands or other territories, or increases Iran's defense costs through maritime activities in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, Iran will respond by opening additional fronts. The source said that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the world's most important strategic straits, and Iran has both the will and the capability to pose a threat to it. He stated that if the United States attempts to find a solution to the Strait of Hormuz issue through "foolish actions," it should be wary of allowing another strait to become its new predicament. The source also emphasized that Iran is fully prepared for further escalation of the situation. (CCTV News)
Iran reiterates that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal.
A spokesperson for the Iranian Armed Forces stated: "The situation in the Straits is irreversible. When to take action is up to us. We have revised the rules of passage. The enemy and its related forces have no right to pass. The decision to issue passage permits is in our hands. The more you try to avoid escalating the war, the stronger the will of our people and the strength of our armed forces will become."
US House Speaker: US military "will not conduct ground combat" in Iran
On March 25 local time, it was learned that US House Speaker Boris Johnson stated that the war with Iran is "nearing its end and its objectives have been achieved," while emphasizing that the US troop buildup in the Middle East is a warning to Iran, and stating that "there will be no ground combat." The Trump administration has recently been reported to be sending additional ground troops to the Middle East. The 31st and 11th Marine Expeditionary Units, comprising several thousand troops, are already en route, and combat units under the Army's 82nd Airborne Division are also preparing to go to the Middle East. (CCTV News)
Iran says it will not allow Trump to decide the timing of the ceasefire.
Iran's Press TV reported today (March 25), citing an unnamed senior Iranian political and security official, that Iran will end the war at its own discretion, once its proposed conditions are met, and will not allow US President Trump to dictate when the war ends. The official stated that Iran's conditions include: the opposing side ceasing its "aggressive" actions; establishing a robust and effective guarantee mechanism to prevent a recurrence of war; clearly defining war losses and ensuring reparations; a complete cessation of military operations on all fronts, including a halt to strikes against various "resistance forces"; and recognition of Iran's legitimate right to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV International News)
Domestic News
my country is accelerating the establishment of a long-term care insurance system to cover all citizens.
On March 25, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Establishment of a Long-Term Care Insurance System," clarifying the establishment of a long-term care insurance system that is adapted to my country's basic national conditions, covers the entire population, integrates urban and rural areas, is fair and unified, safe and standardized, and sustainable. The long-term care insurance system is a social insurance system that provides services or financial guarantees for the basic living care and closely related medical care of disabled persons. It is an important component of my country's social security system and a crucial part of implementing the national strategy of actively addressing population aging. The Opinions make arrangements from aspects such as establishing a policy system that integrates urban and rural areas, establishing a stable and sustainable financing mechanism, implementing fair and appropriate benefit guarantees, and establishing a scientific and standardized management and operation mechanism. (Xinhua News Agency)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
