US President Trump recently stated that he expects to end the conflict with Iran within two to three weeks, and hinted that the US has essentially completed its main military objectives, after which other countries will be responsible for handling the Strait of Hormuz issue. This statement quickly attracted market attention and led to a slight increase in oil prices.

" I think in two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three weeks, we'll leave because we have no reason to continue doing this, " Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday (March 31).

Trump further pointed out that within this timeframe, Iran could still reach some kind of agreement with the United States, but he emphasized that an agreement with Tehran was not a necessary condition for ending the conflict. He added that the United States would withdraw after ensuring that Iran could not acquire nuclear weapons, and claimed that the current regime was preferable to the pre-war leadership.



Trump stated, "We have now achieved regime change, and regime change was not one of my goals. I had only one goal, and that was that they would not have nuclear weapons, and that goal has been achieved. They will not have nuclear weapons."

The White House announced that Trump will deliver a national address.

On Tuesday evening, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt posted on the social media platform X that Trump would address the nation Wednesday evening to provide an important update on Iran. She did not provide further details.

Oil prices edged higher in early trading following Trump's remarks. Asian stocks also rebounded from their worst monthly performance in over 17 years, with market optimism suggesting the global conflict may be nearing its end.

With the timeline uncertain, the US still retains the option to escalate.

Although Trump has set a two- to three-week timeline, there remains considerable uncertainty as to whether this deadline will be firmly maintained. It has been noted that he has frequently set similar two-week timelines in the past, often exceeding the agreed-upon period. The US has already deployed additional troops to the region, leaving open the possibility of further military escalation.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States has "seen the finish line" on the Iran issue, but added that the administration's overall objectives will not be fully achieved in the next day or two. He also noted that after the conflict with Iran ends, the United States will have to reassess the value of NATO.

Trump again expressed his dissatisfaction with U.S. allies' failure to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway that has been largely closed since the outbreak of conflict. Sources familiar with Trump's thinking revealed that he has shown clear anger towards NATO members and other allies.

Trump stated in the Oval Office: "What about the Strait of Hormuz? We're not going to get involved because those countries will take matters into their own hands, refuel their ships, and solve their own problems. There's no reason for us to do it for them."

Trump continues to waver between diplomacy and military policy.

Trump continues to oscillate between claims of progress in diplomatic negotiations and threats of further escalation of strikes, increasingly insisting on a swift ceasefire. Even on Tuesday, when he signaled an impending withdrawal, he also hinted at potential U.S. strikes against targets such as bridges in Iran to force it back to the negotiating table.

According to another source who requested anonymity, Trump has realized that the current situation is unsustainable in the long term.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran is prepared for any confrontation with the U.S. military. He confirmed direct contact with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, but emphasized that "this does not mean we are negotiating." Araghchi added that Iran has absolutely no trust in Washington and does not expect any substantial results from any negotiations.

The Trump team recently suggested that reopening the Strait of Hormuz (which carries about 20% of global maritime oil transport) may not be a necessary condition for ending the conflict.

The impact of the prospect of troop withdrawal on markets and geopolitics

If the US ultimately withdraws its troops, it may soothe investor sentiment to some extent. However, if the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz is not properly resolved, especially if Tehran insists on maintaining its sovereignty, oil prices and global markets may continue to fluctuate. Since the outbreak of the conflict, Brent crude oil prices have risen by about 60%, and US domestic gasoline prices have exceeded $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022.

These latest developments suggest that the conflict initiated by Trump and Israel is no longer entirely under his control, posing a risk to the Republican Party's ability to maintain control of Congress in the November midterm elections.

White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement that President Trump has made it clear that Operation Epic Fury will cause short-term disruptions, but the long-term economic trajectory of the United States remains solid, and the administration is fully committed to implementing the president’s economic agenda, including tax cuts, deregulation, and ensuring energy abundance.

Critics argue that the United States underestimated the actual disruption the conflict would cause to energy flows.

Trump attempted to separate the military threat posed by Iran from the impact of war on shipping and shift the responsibility for reopening the Straits to countries more reliant on Middle Eastern energy.

Earlier on Tuesday, Trump said the United States had significantly weakened Iran's military capabilities, which could allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen itself. He stated, "They're no longer powerful enough. Let the countries that use the strait open it themselves."

This statement may unsettle Gulf states. Previously, Trump claimed on Fox News that the US would continue to protect its Gulf allies even if it did not remain in Iran. Trump said at the time, "They may want us to stay, and if we don't stay, we'll still protect them."

While the United States could theoretically end its military operations and hand over control of the Strait of Hormuz to other coalition forces, this move would likely significantly weaken Washington's negotiating leverage with Tehran. European and Gulf allies remain primarily focused on the narrow objective of opening the strait, rather than achieving broader strategic objectives through strikes against Iranian assets.

Meanwhile, according to U.S. officials, a third U.S. carrier strike group is en route to the Middle East. The USS George H.W. Bush departed from Norfolk, Virginia, on Tuesday.

In the negotiation phase leading up to the outbreak of conflict, Trump deployed an unprecedented amount of military assets to the Middle East, including fighter jets and multiple carrier strike groups, but ultimately failed to force Iran to make concessions on issues such as its missile program and support for proxy groups.

Currently, the UAE is the only Gulf Arab state that has explicitly expressed its willingness to join the naval force, assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or provide escort services. Bahrain, on the other hand, is pushing for a UN Security Council resolution to authorize the naval task force operation.

In conclusion , Trump's statement that the conflict with Iran would end within two to three weeks has brought some expectation of easing in the ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, the uncertainty of the timeline, the issue of sharing responsibility among allies, and the future direction of the Strait of Hormuz will still have a profound impact on the global energy market and international relations.

Market participants need to pay close attention to Trump's national address on Wednesday evening, as well as the subsequent actions of all parties, in order to more accurately judge the final outcome of the conflict and its impact on the global economy.