On Thursday (April 2), WTI crude oil futures contracts continued to rise after Trump delivered a vague speech, currently up more than 9%, as the US and Israel continue to challenge Iran's bottom line in attacks.

The joint US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran have entered their fifth week. On Wednesday evening local time, Kamal Kharrazi, former Iranian foreign minister and chairman of the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations, was seriously injured in an airstrike at his home in Tehran. His wife was killed in the attack.

This suspected targeted assassination of a high-ranking Iranian official has further exacerbated the already tense situation in the Middle East.

Several major Iranian media outlets confirmed on Thursday that Kharrazi had been rushed to the hospital in critical condition. The attack had a clear target, but the specific motive remains undetermined.

Airstrikes hit multiple parts of Iran, severely damaging century-old research institutions.

In addition to the assassination attempt against Kharrazi, multiple locations in Iran were simultaneously hit by airstrikes on Thursday, with fighting breaking out in key cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz. Four people were killed in the attack in the southern city of Larestan.

The Pasteur Institute of Iran, founded in 1920, was also attacked, with its facilities severely damaged.

A spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Health stated that the attack on this century-old global health hub was a blatant provocation against the international health security system.

The Iranian military has issued a strong statement indicating it will escalate its military counterattack until the enemy surrenders.

A spokesman for the Joint Command of the Iranian Armed Forces issued a strong statement through the semi-official Tasnim News Agency, saying that Tehran will continue to advance the war in the Middle East until the United States and Israel are permanently strategically disadvantaged and eventually surrender.

The spokesperson pointed out that the US and Israel have seriously misjudged Iran's military strength, and that Iran will comprehensively escalate its military operations, launching more impactful, wider-ranging, and more destructive precision strikes against its adversaries.

Casualty figures continue to rise in the fierce clashes between the US and Iran.

Since the US and Israel launched joint airstrikes against Iraq on February 28, the number of casualties in this round of conflict has continued to rise.

As of now, the death toll in Iran has exceeded 2,000; Israel reports 24 deaths, and the US military in the Middle East reports 13 soldiers killed.

Late Wednesday night, Iran launched a missile strike on Israel, injuring at least four Israeli civilians in the Bunnebulak area east of Tel Aviv. The Israeli Civil Defense issued multiple rocket warnings on Thursday, urging residents to immediately seek shelter in air-raid shelters.

Diplomatic mediation space continues to narrow; trust in US-Iran negotiations has completely broken down.

On the diplomatic front, Iran's negotiating attitude has clearly deteriorated.

Last week, Kharrazi stated that Iran had not completely closed the channels of negotiation and was still willing to engage in indirect dialogue with the United States. However, in an interview with CNN last month, he made it clear that there was no room for diplomatic maneuvering with the United States.

He also bluntly stated that Trump has always been untrustworthy, and that Iran had twice suffered sudden military strikes from the US during the negotiation process, which completely destroyed the trust in the negotiations.

Attacks on high-ranking officials have escalated tensions and raised the risk of spillover effects from the conflict.

As a key figure in Iranian diplomacy and a former core advisor to the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the attack on Kharrazi has triggered high geopolitical tensions. To date, neither the United States nor Israel has taken responsibility for the incident.

Iran has issued a clear warning that if similar assassinations occur again within its borders, it will retaliate against the United States' core interests in the Middle East, focusing on targeting technology and artificial intelligence companies and related infrastructure that provide technical support for targeted assassinations.

In addition, during this round of military conflict, the US-Israeli coalition has continued to carry out elimination operations against key Iranian personnel, resulting in the deaths of several Iranian nuclear scientists and senior government officials. The risk of spillover from the conflict in the Middle East is constantly rising.

Summary and Technical Analysis:

Technically, WTI crude oil rose by more than 9%, but in a continuous upward trend, a sharp acceleration in the price action usually indicates a sharp increase in market concerns and represents a concentrated realization of gains in oil prices. This is a situation that bulls need to be wary of. Although Trump's speech was vague and lacked focus, it expressed the general direction of the United States shifting blame to Europe and its willingness to withdraw troops.

The current rise in oil prices may be a sign that bulls are preparing to exit, as it is difficult for them to exit during a decline, while a rise provides better liquidity and is more suitable for withdrawal. For bulls, this acceleration may actually be a signal to retreat. As you can see from my previous articles, I previously reminded that a sharp drop in oil prices due to negative news was a good buying opportunity. Although the situation is reversed this time, it may actually be a signal to take profits.


(WTI crude oil futures daily chart, source: EasyForex)

At 20:09 Beijing time, WIT crude oil futures were trading at $110 per barrel.