Next week (April 6-10), the US will release several key data points related to economic growth and inflation. Coupled with expectations of a US-Iran agreement, the OPEC+ meeting, and policy moves by central banks in various countries, the interplay of geopolitical events and major economic indicators could easily trigger significant market volatility. From crude oil inventories and global inflation data to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, every piece of key information will influence asset pricing. Investors need to closely monitor these key moments and prepare for potential market uncertainties.

Geopolitical agreements reach a key point, with data released simultaneously at the beginning of the week.

Global capital markets were closed on Monday (April 6), but there were still three key points to watch: the White House stated that it hoped to reach an agreement with Iran by April 6; Saudi Aramco announced its official selling price last Sunday; and OPEC and oil-producing countries held a meeting.

In addition, the US will release the March ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the global March supply chain stress index.

Asia-Pacific reserve data released; US inflation expectations draw attention.

On Tuesday (April 7), China released its foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves, while the United States released its March inflation forecast for New York and its gold price increase forecast, providing a reference for the market to judge the trend of precious metals and inflation.

Crude oil inventory data released, central bank policy decision and European consumption data unveiled.

On Wednesday (April 8), the U.S. will release API and EIA crude oil inventory data; Chicago Fed President Goolsby, a 2027 FOMC voting member, will speak on monetary policy.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its latest interest rate decision, after keeping the rate unchanged at 2.25% in February.

On the same day, the Eurozone released its February retail sales data.

US growth and inflation data released simultaneously; Fed minutes release policy signals

On Thursday (April 9), the US will announce the latest tranche of 10-year Treasury bonds, which can be used to observe the market's attitude towards inflation and economic growth.

The US fourth-quarter GDP, PCE, and core PCE price index, which were delayed due to the government shutdown, were released on the same day, simultaneously monitoring the US growth and inflation levels.

The US will also release initial and continuing jobless claims figures, and the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting early this morning, explaining why it kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in March.

Inflation data from multiple countries has been released, and consumer confidence is guiding market sentiment.

On Friday (April 10), China released its March CPI and PPI, followed by data on social financing and M2 supply; Germany released its March CPI.

The United States released its March CPI and core CPI data, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations for April.

Risk Warning

In addition to core economic data, investors should also pay close attention to three potential risks: First, progress on the US-Iran agreement and changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation may boost risk aversion, which would benefit assets such as gold and crude oil; second, if speeches and meeting minutes by Federal Reserve officials release signals of a policy shift, it will quickly correct market interest rate expectations; third, inflation data from Germany and the Eurozone may fall short of expectations, which could suppress the euro's performance; and fourth, significant fluctuations in crude oil inventories may trigger sharp short-term volatility in international oil prices.