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2026-04-04 20:53:57
Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," wrote that March saw 178,000 new jobs, reversing the sharp decline in February, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. However, some details were less than ideal: wage growth for ordinary workers slowed, with the year-on-year growth rate falling to its lowest level in five years since the pandemic recovery. Averaging the data from these two volatile months reveals a clearer underlying trend: an average of only 22,500 new jobs per month. Two years ago, 22,500 new jobs per month would have caused concern; but now, this level may still be considered acceptable. Federal Reserve officials are still trying to interpret this change. San Francisco Fed President Daly wrote on Friday, "It's not easy to make the public understand that an economy with zero job growth still aligns with full employment." This situation is particularly vulnerable in the event of a new supply shock. If the war with Iran continues, high fuel costs or commodity shortages could squeeze businesses and consumers, leaving the labor market lacking the buffer to cope with shocks. At the same time, concerns about inflation could reduce the certainty of interest rate cuts, further limiting the Fed's policy maneuvering space.
