Gold prices rose more than 1%, with attention focused on the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and CPI data.
2026-04-10 00:31:23
Gold and silver prices saw modest gains during the US trading session on Thursday (April 9). Earlier US inflation data fell within market expectations, and investors continued to focus on the sustainability of the fragile ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran, as well as the latest consumer price index data. Spot gold rose 1.7% to $4,796.50 per ounce, after hitting a near three-week high in the previous session. Silver prices also edged higher, with the overall precious metals sector receiving support amid improving risk appetite.
US inflation data
The U.S. core PCE price index, released today, rose 0.4% month-over-month in February 2026. This figure, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation, continues the 10-month high reached in the previous two months and is entirely in line with market expectations. Year-over-year, the core PCE price index rose 3%, a slight decrease from 3.1% in the previous month, but still well above the Fed's 2% target. While the inflation data met expectations and did not cause significant market disruption, the persistently high inflationary pressures continue to make investors cautious about the Fed's interest rate path.
Details and uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire agreement
US President Donald Trump announced on the Truth social media platform that he had agreed to a two-week suspension of attacks on Iran, provided that Tehran "immediately, fully and safely opens the Strait of Hormuz." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi responded that, through coordination with the Iranian armed forces, the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz could be ensured during this period. The first round of talks will be held in Islamabad on Friday, focusing on Iran's ten-point peace plan, which Trump called a "workable basis for negotiations."
However, the stability of the ceasefire agreement remains questionable. Israel continues to bomb targets inside Lebanon, Tehran insists that Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire, and there is no indication that Iran has lifted its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Tehran may withdraw from the ceasefire agreement if the attacks on Lebanon continue.
The ceasefire agreement boosted market sentiment.
The ceasefire agreement significantly eased market concerns about a prolonged conflict, boosting risk appetite. Global stock markets generally rose, while the US dollar faced considerable pressure. The dollar index is currently around 98.80 points, down nearly 0.87% from the opening price.
Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJOFutures, noted, "A weaker dollar has helped gold regain its footing, but market participants are still cautiously interpreting the meaning of the ceasefire." He added, "The ceasefire news was very positive for gold, but as cracks appeared, gold prices have retreated from recent highs."
A breakdown in negotiations or an escalation of war could drive up energy costs and inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for an extended period, which would reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding gold. Although gold serves as a traditional inflation hedge, its short-term performance remains supported by both geopolitical easing and a weakening dollar.
Technical Analysis: Range-bound trading with slightly positive momentum.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FX678)
From the daily chart, spot gold is currently trading between major moving averages, with the price below the 50-day simple moving average at $4,927.91 but above the 100-day simple moving average at $4,667.44, indicating a neutral short-term trend. Momentum indicators show the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) near its midpoint, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MAC) indicator is in positive territory, suggesting buyers still have a slight advantage, but the price remains suppressed by the upper trendline.
Short-term resistance lies at the 50-day simple moving average; a decisive break above this level would open up more upside potential. Initial support is near the 100-day simple moving average (approximately $4,667.89); a break below this level could lead to a return to a downtrend. Despite the overall improvement in momentum, investors should remain focused on the progress of the ceasefire agreement and how inflation data will guide Federal Reserve policy.
Overall Outlook
In summary, optimism stemming from the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and a weaker dollar have jointly supported gold prices, but inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties still pose potential risks. Investors will continue to focus on the progress of the Islamabad negotiations on Friday and subsequent economic data to determine the medium-term trend of gold.
US inflation data
The U.S. core PCE price index, released today, rose 0.4% month-over-month in February 2026. This figure, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation, continues the 10-month high reached in the previous two months and is entirely in line with market expectations. Year-over-year, the core PCE price index rose 3%, a slight decrease from 3.1% in the previous month, but still well above the Fed's 2% target. While the inflation data met expectations and did not cause significant market disruption, the persistently high inflationary pressures continue to make investors cautious about the Fed's interest rate path.
Details and uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire agreement
US President Donald Trump announced on the Truth social media platform that he had agreed to a two-week suspension of attacks on Iran, provided that Tehran "immediately, fully and safely opens the Strait of Hormuz." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi responded that, through coordination with the Iranian armed forces, the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz could be ensured during this period. The first round of talks will be held in Islamabad on Friday, focusing on Iran's ten-point peace plan, which Trump called a "workable basis for negotiations."
However, the stability of the ceasefire agreement remains questionable. Israel continues to bomb targets inside Lebanon, Tehran insists that Lebanon must be included in the ceasefire, and there is no indication that Iran has lifted its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Tehran may withdraw from the ceasefire agreement if the attacks on Lebanon continue.
The ceasefire agreement boosted market sentiment.
The ceasefire agreement significantly eased market concerns about a prolonged conflict, boosting risk appetite. Global stock markets generally rose, while the US dollar faced considerable pressure. The dollar index is currently around 98.80 points, down nearly 0.87% from the opening price.
Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJOFutures, noted, "A weaker dollar has helped gold regain its footing, but market participants are still cautiously interpreting the meaning of the ceasefire." He added, "The ceasefire news was very positive for gold, but as cracks appeared, gold prices have retreated from recent highs."
A breakdown in negotiations or an escalation of war could drive up energy costs and inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for an extended period, which would reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding gold. Although gold serves as a traditional inflation hedge, its short-term performance remains supported by both geopolitical easing and a weakening dollar.
Technical Analysis: Range-bound trading with slightly positive momentum.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FX678)
From the daily chart, spot gold is currently trading between major moving averages, with the price below the 50-day simple moving average at $4,927.91 but above the 100-day simple moving average at $4,667.44, indicating a neutral short-term trend. Momentum indicators show the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) near its midpoint, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MAC) indicator is in positive territory, suggesting buyers still have a slight advantage, but the price remains suppressed by the upper trendline.
Short-term resistance lies at the 50-day simple moving average; a decisive break above this level would open up more upside potential. Initial support is near the 100-day simple moving average (approximately $4,667.89); a break below this level could lead to a return to a downtrend. Despite the overall improvement in momentum, investors should remain focused on the progress of the ceasefire agreement and how inflation data will guide Federal Reserve policy.
Overall Outlook
In summary, optimism stemming from the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and a weaker dollar have jointly supported gold prices, but inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties still pose potential risks. Investors will continue to focus on the progress of the Islamabad negotiations on Friday and subsequent economic data to determine the medium-term trend of gold.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
