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2026-04-06 08:41:30
[Private Lending: A Teacup Storm or a New Crisis?] (1) Some investors believe that private lending is just a storm in a teacup, while others believe it will trigger a new financial crisis. Both views may be correct from different time perspectives. (2) Since the middle of last year, undercurrents have been swirling in the private lending sector: redemption requests have accelerated, business development companies (BDCs) such as Blue Owl have begun to restrict redemptions, bank loan rates have risen, and historically high returns have shrunk. Most institutions believe this is an industry recalibration rather than a crisis. (3) Concerns about the increased risks of artificial intelligence—AI may disrupt the software companies invested in by private lending, leading to a doubling of default rates; more alarmingly, insurance companies hold a large amount of private lending assets, and losses could erode retirement security, creating a risk transmission channel different from the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.
