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2026-04-06 10:07:40
[The resilience of the US job market faces a new test from the Iran war] (1) The March jobs report showed 178,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, once again proving that the US labor market can always regain its footing after experiencing interest rate hikes, banking crises and tariff shocks; however, the current impact of the Iran war on energy and supply chains will test its resilience limits. (2) The average monthly increase in February and March data was only 22,500 jobs, but due to the sharp decline in immigration and the increase in retirements, the number of new jobs needed to maintain employment stability is far less than in the past; economists had hoped that the slowdown would end, but after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, "no one talks about a renewed acceleration." (3) The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: it has repeatedly claimed that inflation is temporary, but the new shock makes this claim unsustainable; in an optimistic scenario, the war temporarily limits the damage to hiring, while in a pessimistic scenario, a prolonged conflict pushes up costs and squeezes consumption and employment. The labor market is "resilient but weak," and whether it can withstand another shock depends on how long the war lasts.
