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2026-04-07 08:59:56
[IMF Managing Director: Middle East War Will Lead to Slower Global Growth and Increased Inflation] 1. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that the Middle East war has already reduced global oil supply by 13%, which will push up inflation and drag down economic growth. Even if the conflict is resolved quickly, the IMF will still lower its economic growth forecast and raise its inflation forecast. Next week's IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings will focus on this war. 2. Without the war, the IMF originally expected to slightly raise its global economic growth forecast (January forecasts for 2026 and 2027 growth were 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively). Georgieva stated that all trends now point to rising prices and slower growth. If the war drags on, the impact on inflation and growth will be even greater. 3. Poor and vulnerable countries will be hit hardest, with many countries having little fiscal space to cope with rising prices, increasing the risk of social unrest. Widespread energy subsidies are not the solution, and subsidy measures that could exacerbate inflation should be avoided. 4. The impact is asymmetrical: energy-importing countries are hit hardest, but exporting countries like Qatar are also affected by damaged facilities, and it is estimated that it will take three to five years to restore 17% of their natural gas production. "Even if the war ended today, it would have lasting negative effects on the rest of the world."
