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2026-04-07 09:22:00
[Middle East Conflict Pushes Up Energy Prices, Philippine Inflation Jumps to 4.1% in March] (1) The Philippines’ overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.1% year-on-year in March, a significant acceleration from 2.4% in February, marking the first inflation data since the Middle East conflict triggered a surge in global energy prices. This figure is higher than the central bank’s forecast range (3.1%-3.9%) and the market expectation of 3.8%. (2) Inflation was mainly driven by three categories of goods: food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and water, electricity, gas and fuel, and transportation. Due to the Philippines’ heavy reliance on Persian Gulf oil imports, domestic fuel prices have risen sharply, with diesel and gasoline prices increasing by about 80% and 50% respectively compared to pre-war levels. The government declared a national energy emergency in March. (3) The average inflation rate in the first quarter was 2.8%, and the core inflation rate rose from 2.9% to 3.2%. The Philippine central bank faces a dilemma: the conflict is both pushing up inflation and dragging down economic growth. The latest CPI data will be crucial to the central bank’s policy decision on April 23.
