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2026-04-07 17:01:48
[As Iran's deadline approaches, bond markets hold their breath, while oil prices remain high] ⑴ Eurozone government bond yields rose on Tuesday, with the benchmark German 10-year bond yield at 3.0131%, up 1.8 basis points, due to continued uncertainty surrounding the Iran war and market concerns fueled by Trump's tariff comments. ⑵ The Iranian president refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and accept a ceasefire agreement. Trump set Tuesday evening as the deadline, demanding Iran accept his demands or face "annihilation." Markets are still oscillating between fears of escalating conflict and hopes for a ceasefire. ⑶ Commerzbank interest rate strategists said that although the conflict did not escalate further during the Easter long weekend, the market may have felt some relief, but whether Trump will extend the deadline remains uncertain. Oil prices remain above $110 per barrel, and even minor announcements could cause significant fluctuations in yields and spreads. ⑷ Since the outbreak of war on February 28, soaring energy prices have pushed up inflation expectations, putting pressure on global government bond prices and causing yields to rise sharply. Last week, Eurozone government bond yields recorded their first weekly decline since the outbreak of the conflict. (5) The market currently widely expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates at least twice before the end of this year, with a high probability of a third rate hike. This is largely in line with expectations before the long weekend. The yield on German two-year government bonds was 2.6546%, up 3.1 basis points, and the yield on Italian 10-year government bonds was 3.8964%, up 2.7 basis points.
