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2026-04-07 19:23:49
[Trump's Options on Iran: Airstrikes Most Probable, Ceasefire Hopes Diminished] ⑴ Bloomberg Economics listed four possible outcomes before Trump's deadline: a ceasefire is unlikely due to the vast differences in US and Iranian positions; an extension is moderately likely, but Trump has indicated he is unwilling to postpone again; limited to widespread airstrikes are the most probable path; and a large-scale escalation involving ground troops or attacks on key facilities such as Kharg Island is unlikely. ⑵ From a trading psychology perspective, the market had already partially priced in the "extension" scenario, but the fact that limited military action is listed as the highest probability means that the geopolitical risk premium will not only not subside, but will instead expand from the known risk of "blocking the Strait of Hormuz" to a new dimension of direct attacks on Iran's inland energy and infrastructure targets. ⑶ Institutional bottom-line assessments indicate that limited airstrikes are considered the most likely next step, meaning that any signal of no agreement before the deadline will trigger an instant repricing of crude oil, Treasury bonds, and safe-haven currencies, while positions previously betting on de-escalation of the conflict will face concentrated liquidation pressure.
