Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-04-07 19:28:57
[US-Iran Indirect Negotiations Stalled, Ceasefire Prospects Dim] ⑴ Indirect negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing, but progress toward a 45-day ceasefire agreement remains limited. Iran refuses to exchange reopening the Strait of Hormuz or abandoning uranium enrichment for a temporary ceasefire, instead seeking a permanent ceasefire while retaining control of the strait. ⑵ From a psychological perspective, the market may have already partially priced in a compromise of a "temporary ceasefire for navigation," but Iran insists on a permanent ceasefire and demands to share transit fees with Oman. Meanwhile, Tehran doubts that negotiations can prevent US-Israeli attacks, meaning any short-term agreement is unlikely to truly eliminate the risk of supply disruptions. ⑶ Neither side has softened its stance. Officials say negotiations have entered a critical phase, while Trump has warned that if the strait is not reopened, he will immediately strike Iranian infrastructure. The longer the stalemate continues, the more firmly the energy market prices for long-haul routes and high insurance premiums will solidify.
