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2026-04-07 19:31:35
[Trump's Deadline: Airstrikes, Agreement, or Bluffing? A Crossroads is Imminent] ⑴ Trump set a deadline of 8 PM Beijing time on Tuesday, warning that if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he will bomb its critical infrastructure. Based on past behavior, three outcomes are possible: a low probability of backing out, but this would weaken his leverage; a delay with claims of progress in negotiations to maintain pressure; or believing Iran is stalling and launching an immediate or phased airstrike. ⑵ From a trading psychology perspective, the market is currently pricing in all three scenarios simultaneously. However, the "backing out" option has the lowest probability, meaning the geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to subside, while "delay" only provides a brief respite. Once an actual airstrike occurs, crude oil, Treasury bonds, and safe-haven currencies will face instantaneous and drastic repricing. ⑶ Bloomberg Economics research has previously listed limited airstrikes as the most likely path. Indirect negotiations between the US and Iran have stalled, with neither side softening its stance. Whether Trump resorts to pressure, diplomacy, or military action will determine the direction of the global energy market in the coming weeks.
