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2026-04-07 19:46:12
[Another Deadline Approaching, Market "Whistling in the Dark," Selling on Rallies is a More Prudent Strategy] ⑴ Institutions point out that the macro market is facing yet another deadline. The market may have become numb due to repeated extensions, seemingly whistling in the dark. However, the positions of the US and Iran are vastly different, and Trump is clearly weighing whether to adopt a scorched-earth strategy. If the Democrats win the House of Representatives, war crimes charges will become the focus. ⑵ Institutions still believe that special forces will enter and control Kharg Island and three other key islands in the Hormuz region. Kharg's military and radar facilities were destroyed in early strikes. Taking these islands will create a scorched-earth threat; destroying power plants and energy infrastructure constitutes a general's move. (3) From a trading psychology perspective, the tactical preference is two-way range trading, but selling during rebounds is more prudent. The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to be between 4.32% and 4.36%. The market may think it is ready to face whatever comes next, but institutions are skeptical. In a scorched earth scenario, crude oil is expected to reach $150, the 30-year US Treasury yield to 5.25%, and the S&P 500 to 5600.
