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2026-04-07 19:50:11
[GC Opens Weak at 3.67%, $44 Billion Cash Injection Combined with Safe-Haven Demand, Overnight Rate May Fall Below Midpoint of Interest Rate Corridor] ⑴ Due to the inflow of $44 billion in cash into the system from Treasury bill settlements, GC opened 2 basis points weaker at 3.67% bid. The additional cash, coupled with funds generated by safe-haven strategies, may push overnight rates below the midpoint of the 3.50% to 3.75% interest rate corridor. ⑵ Institutions point out that the overnight collateral market is a safe haven in the current environment, so a sharp drop in GC should not be surprising. Federal funds futures price a 3% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the June FOMC meeting, and 0x3 OIS prices a 6% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike within the next 90 days. ⑶ From a psychological perspective, the market is waiting for a ceasefire agreement to emerge at 8 PM Beijing time on Tuesday. SOFR futures are fluctuating between a 0.5 basis point decline and a 1 basis point increase. If no agreement is reached before the deadline, safe-haven funds will further flow into the overnight collateral market, pushing GC and repurchase rates lower.
