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[Caixin Futures: Steel Prices Weak and Iron Ore Bearish in the Medium Term] ⑴ Steel: Supply growth outpaces demand, supply pressure looms. The rebar 10 contract is suppressed by the 40-day moving average, continuing its weak and volatile pullback trend. Support is expected around 3080-3100. The hot-rolled coil 10 contract has broken below the 40-day moving average, and may continue its short-term adjustment. Demand growth is narrowing, and inventory pressure remains a concern. Short-term prices may decline as costs fall, but peak demand has not yet materialized, the basis has recovered somewhat, and the downside potential may be limited. ⑵ Iron Ore: With the impact of the Australian cyclone receding, global iron ore shipments have increased significantly month-on-month, and pig iron production has increased more than expected. However, steel mills are purchasing only as needed, and port inventories have increased again, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand. The 09 contract is weak and volatile, testing the 770 support level again. A breakout from the 770-800 range is expected. With limited real-world contradictions, the near-month 05 contract may maintain high-level volatility. The medium-term easing expectation remains unchanged, and the 09 contract can still be used as a short position in the industry chain. (3) Coking Coal: Production at some coal mines is limited due to accidents or relocation of working faces, and Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, leading to a continued cooling of market sentiment. The May contract is suppressed by the moving average, with short-term upward pressure shifting to the 1125-1140 level. Weakening demand and potential delivery pressure are suppressing the near-month contract, but power plants may start restocking around mid-month, which may limit the downside potential of coal prices. The recommended strategy is to sell on rallies and avoid chasing short positions. (4) Coke: The cost of coal used in furnaces has decreased, coke producers' profits have recovered, and production is stable; pig iron production has rebounded more than expected, resulting in a tight supply-demand balance in the short term. After continuous declines, the May contract is trading at a discount for more than one round, and there is still an expectation of a second round of price increases for coke. Valuation advantages provide support for the near-month contract, and short-term trends mainly follow raw coal. (5) Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore shipments have declined for two consecutive weeks, and ferrosilicon manganese producers are operating at low levels, providing support for the market. However, after the market rebound, factories' hedging intentions have increased. The manganese silicon 05 contract saw a decrease in open interest and a decline, maintaining an overall high-level fluctuation. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the 6347-6600 fluctuation range.