Download App

[Caixin Futures: Crude Oil Shows Strong Performance, Methanol Rises Significantly] ⑴ Crude Oil: US-Iran negotiations have reached a critical point. Trump stated that if an agreement is not reached by 8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 7th (8:00 AM Beijing Time on April 8th), the US military may destroy bridges, power plants, and energy facilities in Iran. Geopolitical tensions have escalated again, and energy and chemical products are expected to perform strongly in the short term. However, political risks will increase market uncertainty. It is recommended to buy on dips and avoid blindly chasing long or short positions. ⑵ Fuel Oil: During the war, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, leading to production cuts by oil-producing countries. China has a high dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil, with Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil accounting for 20% of domestic imports. The supply gap is unlikely to be filled in the short term. Trump's remarks exacerbated geopolitical tensions, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. ⑶ Glass: Recently, float glass production lines have increased their output, with the industry's daily output slightly recovering to 145,500 tons. Overall, shipments from factories in North China are average, with low-priced goods mainly being traded in the Shahe market. Deep processing plants' orders remain weak, supply remains low, and rising energy costs provide some support for prices. However, demand expectations are weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. (4) Soda Ash: The domestic soda ash market is trending towards stability with minimal price fluctuations. Some companies have increased their operating rates, resulting in a slight increase in supply. Downstream demand is moderate, and transactions have increased after futures prices fell. Total soda ash inventory is 1.8861 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons from Monday, with total social inventory exceeding 340,000 tons. Soda ash capacity utilization is 78.52%. Downstream cold repairs are accelerating, and medium-term supply is ample, suggesting a slightly weak and volatile outlook. (5) Caustic Soda: Low-degree soda ash prices in Shandong are generally stable, with some companies experiencing price corrections due to warehouse receipts. The national liquid soda ash sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.94% month-on-month, with an average capacity utilization rate of 85.7%. Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and plant operating rate reductions are less than expected. Caustic soda prices are expected to fluctuate more sharply, with a slightly weak and volatile outlook. (6) Methanol: Taicang spot price was 3635 yuan, up 220 yuan; Inner Mongolia North Line price was 2695 yuan, up 65 yuan. The domestic methanol futures and spot markets saw a strong overall rise, with the Middle East geopolitical situation escalating again, and futures prices hitting a new high during the day. Methanol port sample inventory was 1.034 million tons, a decrease of 121,500 tons from the previous period, a significant reduction. Israel's attack on Iran's largest petrochemical facility and the Strait of Hormuz blockade are unlikely to ease in the short term, continuing to pose a risk of import shortages, maintaining a tight supply and demand situation.