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2026-04-07 21:45:33
[Rising Confidence Hides High Costs: US Farmers Bet on Land Prices and Policy Direction] ⑴ The Purdue University/CME Group Agricultural Economic Barometer shows that the farmer sentiment index rose to 127 in March from 116 in February. The current conditions index rose 6 points, and the future expectations index rose sharply by 14 points, but the latter is still 12 points lower than in December and 16 points lower than in March of last year. ⑵ Despite improved sentiment, the proportion of respondents citing high input costs as their biggest concern rose from 44% to 46%. Approximately 18% of farmers reported that their business was better than a year ago. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 18% expect their financial performance to worsen, while 20% expect it to improve. ⑶ The agricultural capital investment index rose slightly by 3 points to 53, but only 4% of respondents planned to increase agricultural machinery purchases in the coming year, indicating that the willingness to expand remains weak. (4) Regarding inflation expectations, approximately 39% of farmers expect consumer inflation to be above 3% over the next 12 months. Regarding the U.S. prime interest rate, 34% of respondents believe it will fall in a year, while 16% believe it will rise. (5) In the past six months, 12% of producers have discussed leasing their farmland for solar power generation. Leasing rates varied significantly, with approximately 21% of offers exceeding $1,500 per acre. 56% of contracts included annual increase clauses, with the most common annual increase being 2% to 3%. Overall, 5% of respondents indicated they had signed solar leases. (6) The short-term farmland value expectation index rose from 123 to 125, and the long-term index jumped from 150 to 159. The proportion of farmers who believe the U.S. is on the "right track" rose from 59% to 65%, but only 37% expect a positive agricultural outlook over the next five years, a decrease of 12 percentage points from March of last year. The gap in expectations between crop and livestock producers remains significant.
