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2026-04-08 09:17:33
[Barrenjoey, Sydney-based financial services firm: High oil prices eliminate tail risks of rate cuts, but exacerbate inflation] Andrew Lilley, chief interest rate strategist at the firm, believes there is still a long way to go to return to pre-conflict levels. The current market concern is the uncertainty surrounding whether oil prices can return to $75. We are currently at a delicate tipping point: oil is still practically flowing, no one is facing a shortage, but prices are hovering around an equilibrium level of $90, which effectively eliminates the tail risks of central bank rate cuts. This situation will lead to persistently high yields, as infrastructure damage and persistently high oil prices in the coming months mean that inflation will further intensify.
