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[Nordic Electricity Forward Contracts Fall Along with Global Energy Market, But Hydropower Shortages Limit Decline] ⑴ On Wednesday, following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, global energy markets declined, and Nordic forward electricity prices fell accordingly. The agreement stipulated that Iran would suspend its blockade of oil and gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ Nordic quarterly baseload electricity contracts fell €3.30 to €48.30 per megawatt-hour, a drop of 6.4%; annual contracts fell €2.15 to €46.80 per megawatt-hour, a drop of 4.4%. ⑶ Mind Energy analysts pointed out that the sharp decline in related markets is affecting the Nordic region. European forward prices have also fallen sharply due to lower oil and gas prices. The Dutch TTF hub near-month contract fell nearly 17% to a one-month low, with oil prices falling below $100 per barrel. ⑷ However, declining water reserves in the hydropower-dependent Nordic region limited the decline in electricity prices. Mind Energy stated that the Easter weather forecast showed a significantly drier trend, further widening the hydropower deficit. (5) Data shows that Nordic water reserves are 29.49 TWh below normal levels, compared to 27.22 TWh below normal levels on Thursday. Meteorologists say that high pressure will dominate Nordic weather for the next two weeks, with Scandinavia experiencing mainly dry and mild weather. (6) From a trading psychology perspective, the widespread drop in energy prices triggered by the ceasefire news has been transmitted to the Nordic electricity market, but the region's unique hydrological conditions have acted as a buffer. This suggests that investors should consider local supply and demand fundamentals when assessing the impact of the receding geopolitical risks on electricity prices. (7) The focus going forward will be on the actual precipitation in the Nordic region over the next two weeks and the trend in hydropower reserves, which will determine whether electricity prices will receive additional regional support beyond the energy market rebound.