Oil prices plunge 18%! US-Iran ceasefire succeeds amid impeachment storm.
2026-04-08 20:32:42
On Wednesday (April 8), during the European and American trading sessions, international oil prices fell sharply due to the gradual opening of the Taiwan Strait and the impact of the 15-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, which made the war longer than expected. WTI crude oil futures fell 17.88% and are currently trading at $92.84 per barrel.
Meanwhile, influenced by the Sitalini bombing report, which stated that there were no torpedoes in the Holmes Strait and that navigation flexibility could be greatly affected, the market still began to quickly price in and quickly recover to the situation of navigation even though there was no obvious navigation in reality.
Meanwhile, in addition to facing Iran's fearless resistance, the United States' actions have also triggered a strong political backlash at home. Defense Secretary Hergace and President Trump have both faced impeachment calls, domestic anti-war pressure has continued to rise, and the unease brought about by the war has continued to spread.
This is also one of the important reasons for the sharp drop in oil prices and the rebound in gold prices as global risk sentiment cooled.
Arizona Democratic Representative Yasamin Ansari has announced that he will submit a war crimes impeachment bill against Defense Secretary Pete Hegses.
As a descendant of Iranian immigrants, she directly accused Trump of deliberately escalating illegal warfare by targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure such as bridges, desalination facilities, and power plants. She argued that Trump's statements had crossed the line, and that Hegses, as a key executor, was culpable.
Since the U.S. launched its military strikes on February 28, U.S. forces have bombed the Minabu Girls' School and the Kharg Island oil export hub. Iran has also accused the U.S. of attacking a desalination facility on Qeshm Island. Ansari emphasized that the power to declare war rests with Congress, and that Hergesse's actions—disregarding the safety of U.S. military personnel and deliberately attacking civilian facilities—constitute the legal grounds for impeachment and removal from office. She also called on the Trump administration to invoke the Twenty-Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
In fact, Michigan Democratic Representative Sherry Tannedal submitted articles of impeachment against Hergace last December, and several other lawmakers, including Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy, have also pointed out that attacking Iranian civilian facilities constitutes a war crime.
Despite facing accusations of violating international law, Hegses publicly expressed his firm support for Trump's strike plan.
Ansari also stated bluntly that Trump and his staff have a serious lack of understanding of the historical and political context of foreign policy toward Iran. He argued that US-led military intervention and regime change would only lead to disastrous strategic mistakes, and that the Iranian people need unrestricted internet access and external support for the release of political prisoners.
Trump's extreme rhetoric against Iran has further ignited a domestic political crisis.
Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly criticized Trump's statement that "a civilization will perish tonight" as a tactic that could not be used to exert pressure in negotiations.
This statement not only violates the core principles that the United States has upheld for nearly 250 years and damages the reputation of the United States as a global symbol of freedom, but also directly threatens the safety of American citizens both at home and abroad.
After Trump made a strong threat to "eliminate Iranian civilization," congressional Democrats quickly escalated their countermeasures.
Currently, 65 House Democrats have jointly called for Trump's impeachment or removal from office through the 25th Amendment, and the calls for the president's removal are growing louder.
Data from ship tracking agency Kpler shows that as of Tuesday, approximately 187 fully loaded oil tankers were stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, carrying 172 million barrels of crude oil and refined products. Li Daizhen, global head of research at Fertmax FZCO, said that even under normal conditions, clearing the backlog could take more than two weeks, and the 14-day window is simply insufficient to restore the confidence levels needed to completely eliminate the uncertainty premium.
Jacob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at the shipping association Bimco, said the industry is waiting for technical details from both the US and Iran, and leaving the Gulf without prior coordination would be riskier and undesirable.
Two shipbrokers said shipowners are likely to remain on the sidelines until vessels are allowed into the Gulf, but inquiries for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) carrying Middle Eastern crude to Asia jumped on Wednesday, with several Asian refiners, including Reliance Industries, Indian Oil Corporation, and CNOOC, as well as traders such as Glencore and Total Energy, all looking for capacity.
Maersk stated that a ceasefire might create opportunities for ships to pass, but has not yet provided sufficient maritime security guarantees. The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is coordinating with Iran to ensure the safe passage of the two oil tankers, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs hopes that all parties will work together to promote the early restoration of normal trade across the Taiwan Strait.
US President Trump said on social media that the United States will work closely with Iran, adding that Iran has entered a new phase that will be very productive.
Trump stated that Iran would be prohibited from engaging in uranium enrichment activities, and that the United States would cooperate with Iran to excavate and remove all deeply buried nuclear-related materials, facilities that have been under strict satellite surveillance by the Space Force since the attack.
The United States is and will continue to discuss tariff and sanctions relief with Iran, and several aspects of the 15-point plan have been agreed upon.
This statement goes a step further than the previous ceasefire agreement, involving long-term control arrangements for Iran's nuclear activities. If subsequent sanctions relief is substantially implemented, it may have a medium-term suppressive effect on the global energy supply pattern and oil prices.
The focus going forward will be on the specific timetable and scope of sanctions relief, as well as the international community's response to this new phase, which will determine whether the Middle East geopolitical risk premium can decline further.
With the Secretary of Defense and the President himself embroiled in impeachment proceedings, opposition to the war against Iran continues to rise in the United States, and anti-war sentiment is accumulating.
Radical military plans and extreme rhetoric have exacerbated domestic anti-war sentiment, hindering the United States from continuing military operations.
As Dalio stated, the anti-war sentiment ahead of the domestic midterm elections has cast doubt on its long-term combat capability.
Political divisions and security concerns are intertwined, creating a prominent dilemma facing the United States. These domestic political backlashes, along with the 15-day ceasefire agreement, have helped de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East, leading to a rebound in risk assets, including gold, while oil prices have fallen sharply.
However, even if the war eventually ends, in the short term, oil prices still need to rebound after forming a double bottom within the day. One reason is that it is currently difficult for actual air traffic to return to around 140 per day, given Iran's charges, risk aversion, and increased insurance premiums.
At the same time, whether the major players are still buying or preparing to sell, this trend has a need for a rebound. The major players need oil prices to rise later to buy, while the major players need oil prices to rebound to sell, thus creating a bullish trend. Currently, the bullish trend has not been completely broken.
(WTI crude oil futures daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 20:29 Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures contracts are currently trading at $94.08 per barrel.
Meanwhile, influenced by the Sitalini bombing report, which stated that there were no torpedoes in the Holmes Strait and that navigation flexibility could be greatly affected, the market still began to quickly price in and quickly recover to the situation of navigation even though there was no obvious navigation in reality.
Meanwhile, in addition to facing Iran's fearless resistance, the United States' actions have also triggered a strong political backlash at home. Defense Secretary Hergace and President Trump have both faced impeachment calls, domestic anti-war pressure has continued to rise, and the unease brought about by the war has continued to spread.
This is also one of the important reasons for the sharp drop in oil prices and the rebound in gold prices as global risk sentiment cooled.
Arizona Democratic Representative Yasamin Ansari has announced that he will submit a war crimes impeachment bill against Defense Secretary Pete Hegses.
As a descendant of Iranian immigrants, she directly accused Trump of deliberately escalating illegal warfare by targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure such as bridges, desalination facilities, and power plants. She argued that Trump's statements had crossed the line, and that Hegses, as a key executor, was culpable.
Since the U.S. launched its military strikes on February 28, U.S. forces have bombed the Minabu Girls' School and the Kharg Island oil export hub. Iran has also accused the U.S. of attacking a desalination facility on Qeshm Island. Ansari emphasized that the power to declare war rests with Congress, and that Hergesse's actions—disregarding the safety of U.S. military personnel and deliberately attacking civilian facilities—constitute the legal grounds for impeachment and removal from office. She also called on the Trump administration to invoke the Twenty-Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
In fact, Michigan Democratic Representative Sherry Tannedal submitted articles of impeachment against Hergace last December, and several other lawmakers, including Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy, have also pointed out that attacking Iranian civilian facilities constitutes a war crime.
Despite facing accusations of violating international law, Hegses publicly expressed his firm support for Trump's strike plan.
Ansari also stated bluntly that Trump and his staff have a serious lack of understanding of the historical and political context of foreign policy toward Iran. He argued that US-led military intervention and regime change would only lead to disastrous strategic mistakes, and that the Iranian people need unrestricted internet access and external support for the release of political prisoners.
Extreme rhetoric sparks crisis: 65 lawmakers call for Trump's impeachment.
Trump's extreme rhetoric against Iran has further ignited a domestic political crisis.
Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly criticized Trump's statement that "a civilization will perish tonight" as a tactic that could not be used to exert pressure in negotiations.
This statement not only violates the core principles that the United States has upheld for nearly 250 years and damages the reputation of the United States as a global symbol of freedom, but also directly threatens the safety of American citizens both at home and abroad.
After Trump made a strong threat to "eliminate Iranian civilization," congressional Democrats quickly escalated their countermeasures.
Currently, 65 House Democrats have jointly called for Trump's impeachment or removal from office through the 25th Amendment, and the calls for the president's removal are growing louder.
Institutional Viewpoint:
Data from ship tracking agency Kpler shows that as of Tuesday, approximately 187 fully loaded oil tankers were stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, carrying 172 million barrels of crude oil and refined products. Li Daizhen, global head of research at Fertmax FZCO, said that even under normal conditions, clearing the backlog could take more than two weeks, and the 14-day window is simply insufficient to restore the confidence levels needed to completely eliminate the uncertainty premium.
Jacob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at the shipping association Bimco, said the industry is waiting for technical details from both the US and Iran, and leaving the Gulf without prior coordination would be riskier and undesirable.
Two shipbrokers said shipowners are likely to remain on the sidelines until vessels are allowed into the Gulf, but inquiries for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) carrying Middle Eastern crude to Asia jumped on Wednesday, with several Asian refiners, including Reliance Industries, Indian Oil Corporation, and CNOOC, as well as traders such as Glencore and Total Energy, all looking for capacity.
Maersk stated that a ceasefire might create opportunities for ships to pass, but has not yet provided sufficient maritime security guarantees. The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is coordinating with Iran to ensure the safe passage of the two oil tankers, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs hopes that all parties will work together to promote the early restoration of normal trade across the Taiwan Strait.
The United States is once again signaling a ceasefire:
US President Trump said on social media that the United States will work closely with Iran, adding that Iran has entered a new phase that will be very productive.
Trump stated that Iran would be prohibited from engaging in uranium enrichment activities, and that the United States would cooperate with Iran to excavate and remove all deeply buried nuclear-related materials, facilities that have been under strict satellite surveillance by the Space Force since the attack.
The United States is and will continue to discuss tariff and sanctions relief with Iran, and several aspects of the 15-point plan have been agreed upon.
This statement goes a step further than the previous ceasefire agreement, involving long-term control arrangements for Iran's nuclear activities. If subsequent sanctions relief is substantially implemented, it may have a medium-term suppressive effect on the global energy supply pattern and oil prices.
The focus going forward will be on the specific timetable and scope of sanctions relief, as well as the international community's response to this new phase, which will determine whether the Middle East geopolitical risk premium can decline further.
Summary and Technical Analysis:
With the Secretary of Defense and the President himself embroiled in impeachment proceedings, opposition to the war against Iran continues to rise in the United States, and anti-war sentiment is accumulating.
Radical military plans and extreme rhetoric have exacerbated domestic anti-war sentiment, hindering the United States from continuing military operations.
As Dalio stated, the anti-war sentiment ahead of the domestic midterm elections has cast doubt on its long-term combat capability.
Political divisions and security concerns are intertwined, creating a prominent dilemma facing the United States. These domestic political backlashes, along with the 15-day ceasefire agreement, have helped de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East, leading to a rebound in risk assets, including gold, while oil prices have fallen sharply.
However, even if the war eventually ends, in the short term, oil prices still need to rebound after forming a double bottom within the day. One reason is that it is currently difficult for actual air traffic to return to around 140 per day, given Iran's charges, risk aversion, and increased insurance premiums.
At the same time, whether the major players are still buying or preparing to sell, this trend has a need for a rebound. The major players need oil prices to rise later to buy, while the major players need oil prices to rebound to sell, thus creating a bullish trend. Currently, the bullish trend has not been completely broken.
(WTI crude oil futures daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 20:29 Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures contracts are currently trading at $94.08 per barrel.
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