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2026-04-08 23:59:46
Nick Timiraos of “The New Fed Watch” argues that a sustained ceasefire reduces tail risks for the Fed in two ways, but the effect may be asymmetrical: it blocks the tail risk of a collapse in demand that could have forced the Fed to cut rates in the short term, and this is more significant than the upside risk of inflation it mitigates—due to the high floor in energy prices, coupled with the lingering effects of previous supply disruptions.
