Next week (April 11-17), the first round of talks between the US and Iran will kick off a geopolitical game, with representatives from many countries gathering in Islamabad for high-level consultations. The outcome of the talks may be announced this week.

Meanwhile, the world will be releasing a flurry of important economic data and central bank policy signals, from China's first-quarter GDP to inflation data in Europe and the US, from statements by central bank officials to international financial summits—each development could trigger significant market volatility. Investors need to plan ahead to mitigate potential risks and opportunities.

Geopolitical negotiations begin, with consultations focusing on multiple countries.

The first round of talks between Iran and the United States began on Saturday (April 11) in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, and representatives from many countries will hold high-level geopolitical consultations there this weekend.

Sources say the direct talks may "last only two or three days at most due to security concerns, and the outcome will be announced next week."

US and Japanese data unveiled, Global Financial Summit kicks off

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank will hold their spring meetings on Monday (April 13), and financial professionals from around the world will gather until April 17 to discuss global economic issues.

On the same day, the US released its March existing home sales data, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gave a speech. Warren Buffett's recent large-scale issuance of Japanese government bonds may also have hinted at an imminent interest rate hike in Japan.

Later today, OPEC will release its monthly oil market report, which will provide a key reference for the supply and demand pattern of the oil market.

Data from China and abroad are coming in quick succession, with a flurry of crude oil reports.

On Tuesday (April 14), China released its import and export data for March. As an effective leading indicator of the profitability of domestic enterprises, its performance will draw market attention to the resilience of the Chinese economy.

The release of the US March PPI data allows us to observe corporate production costs. If the PPI is mainly driven by oil prices, it serves as a leading indicator for CPI data over the next 1-3 months.

On the same day, the IMF released its World Economic Outlook report, and the IEA simultaneously released its oil market report.

Meanwhile, there should be major news about the US-Iran negotiations at the latest. Although the negotiation time should not exceed 14 days in theory, a 3-day meeting is already a relatively extreme physical constraint.

Crude oil inventory data revealed; central banks issue statements.

On Wednesday (April 15), the United States will release crude oil inventory data from the EIA and API, which will directly reflect changes in global crude oil supply and demand.

The policy front is packed with important announcements, including speeches from the Governor of the Bank of England and the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, as well as several regional Federal Reserve presidents in the United States. The market needs to pay close attention to the signals from the monetary policy moves of various countries.

China's GDP leads the way, while Europe and the US engage in a data game.

On Thursday (April 16), China will release its first-quarter GDP, March retail sales of consumer goods, and industrial value-added of enterprises above a designated size. These three core data will comprehensively demonstrate the performance of my country's economy at the start of the year.

Europe will release its March CPI, while the US will release its Philadelphia Manufacturing Index and initial and continuing jobless claims for the week. Inflation and employment data will influence the policy decisions of central banks in Europe and the US.

The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book, which reflects growth and inflation across the country, and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech providing an official interpretation of the U.S. economic situation.

Eurozone trade season concludes, with emerging industries taking center stage.

The Eurozone will release its February trade data on Friday (April 17), which will reflect the state of the Eurozone's external trade and economic relations.

The 2026 China Humanoid Robot Ecosystem Conference was held in Shanghai on the same day. As an important indicator of emerging industries, it may attract more attention from related sectors.

Position data released; institutional trends referenced

On Saturday (April 18), the CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report. You can observe the changes in institutional positions this Tuesday and use this information as a reference for trading in forex and other instruments.

Risk warning: Geopolitical and policy variables require close attention.

In addition to core economic data, investors should also be wary of three potential risks: First, the progress of the US-Iran negotiations may fall short of expectations or break down, which could trigger an escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, boosting risk aversion and benefiting safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar.

Second, signals from central banks such as the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations and the Federal Reserve's policy direction may quickly correct market expectations, triggering sharp short-term fluctuations in exchange rates and bond markets.

Third, if China's economic data deviates from market expectations, or if international trade frictions escalate again, it will suppress global risk asset sentiment.

Fourth, unexpected changes in crude oil inventories, coupled with geopolitical factors, may lead to significant fluctuations in commodity prices.