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2026-04-10 21:10:49
[Energy Commodity Prices Surge 21.3% in Record Month; Trump's Iran War Becomes Midterm Election Focus] ⑴ Market analysts point out that it's easy to imagine the US Democrats using the scale and magnitude of the energy commodity price increase as a major factor in their November midterm election campaign. March saw a 21.3% month-over-month increase in energy commodity prices, the largest monthly increase on record. ⑵ Analysts emphasize that this increase was triggered by Trump's Iran war. It's important to note that energy commodities do not include service prices such as electricity, meaning the actual increase in household energy spending may be underestimated, as the subsequent transmission of electricity prices has not yet been fully priced in. ⑶ Market participants noted that gasoline prices surged 21.2% month-over-month and 18.9% year-over-year. For ordinary households, the sharp rise in fuel costs will directly squeeze disposable income and suppress consumer confidence. These kinds of direct changes in the cost of living are most easily perceived and remembered by voters. ⑷ From a psychological perspective, the political maneuvering in the midterm elections may influence the future direction of energy policy. If the Democrats successfully link high oil prices to specific policies, the market may begin pricing in the risks of changes in the post-election energy regulatory environment. However, before that, the key variables determining energy prices in the short term remain the progress of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the actual speed of recovery of Saudi Arabia's damaged production capacity.
