April 13th Financial Breakfast: US-Iran talks break down, US announces blockade of Iranian ports, gold prices battle for the $4650 mark, oil prices surge over 8%.
2026-04-13 06:58:54
On Monday (April 13, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold opened down more than 2%, trading around $4,652 per ounce. Talks between the US and Iran on Saturday failed to reach any agreement, mainly due to three major sticking points: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment, and the unfreezing of Iranian overseas assets. Following the setback, both sides reiterated their hardline stances, with the US announcing a blockade of Iranian ports starting on the 13th, and Trump considering limited strikes against Iran. The renewed geopolitical tensions weakened expectations of a Fed rate cut, with the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in April at 98.4%. US crude oil opened higher, rising by 8%, briefly surpassing $105.50 per barrel, and is currently trading around $104.60 per barrel, potentially testing whether it can hold above $105 per barrel during the day.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.56%, the S&P 500 down 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.35%. However, all three major indexes posted their biggest weekly gains since November. Investors remained cautious ahead of the weekend, closely watching developments in Middle East peace talks.
On the economic data front, the CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in March, in line with expectations, but recorded its largest monthly increase in nearly four years due to soaring energy prices; the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low.
Among individual stocks, CoreWeave rose 10.9% due to its partnership with Anthropic, while Broadcom and Nvidia led the technology sector with gains of 4.7% and 2.6% respectively, while the financial and consumer staples sectors lagged behind. The market is focused on the upcoming earnings season, with S&P 500 earnings expected to grow by 13.9% year-over-year.
Key Focus Today
OPEC will release its monthly oil market report (the exact release time is to be determined, but it is generally released around 6-9 PM Beijing time); the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank will hold their spring meetings; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will visit the United States from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and International Monetary and Financial Committee meetings.
Gold prices held steady at $4,761.79 an ounce on Friday, having risen nearly 2% for the week, but U.S. gold futures closed down 0.6% at $4,787.40. Market focus was on the sustainability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement; although the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked and the conflict in Lebanon put the ceasefire to the test, a weaker dollar provided support for gold prices.
Data showed that U.S. consumer prices rose by the largest month-on-month increase in nearly four years in March, in line with expectations. In other precious metals, spot silver rose 1.6% to $76.26, platinum fell 2.3%, and palladium fell 1.9%, but all three are poised for weekly gains.
International oil prices closed lower on Friday, with Brent crude futures falling 0.8% to $95.20 a barrel and WTI crude futures falling 1.3% to $96.57 a barrel. For the week, Brent and WTI crude fell 12.7% and 13.4% respectively, marking their largest weekly declines since 2022. The sell-off occurred on the eve of negotiations between Iran and the United States aimed at reaching a permanent ceasefire agreement, despite severe restrictions on oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz and the attacks already reducing Saudi oil production by 600,000 barrels per day.
Analysts point out that the key to the oil market lies in whether shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz can resume. Furthermore, the U.S. Energy Information Administration stated that Middle Eastern oil-producing countries cut production by approximately 7.5 million barrels per day in March, and the reduction is expected to widen further in April; meanwhile, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas drilling rigs last week, down about 7% compared to the same period last year.
The dollar index fell on Friday, marking its biggest weekly drop since January, as investors unwound safe-haven positions and bet that a ceasefire in the Gulf would restore oil shipments.
The euro traded at $1.173, up 1.8% last week; the pound traded at $1.347, up 2%; and the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars rose nearly 3% against the dollar last week. Despite signs of a breakdown in the ceasefire agreement appearing on Friday, the market remains generally optimistic.
Data showed that US consumer prices rose at their highest level in nearly four years in March, but this was in line with expectations. The market is more focused on the outcome of the peace talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad this weekend. Analysts say that positive progress in the talks would be detrimental to the dollar, while a negative outcome could quickly reverse the trend. The yen fell to 159.255 against the dollar.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 98.4%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by June has dropped to 0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 1.8%.
Negotiations failed, and the US and Iran again took a hard line on the Strait of Hormuz.
Negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad ended on the 12th without any agreement. Iran stated that the negotiations were conducted in an "atmosphere of distrust and suspicion," with disagreements remaining on two or three key issues. The US stated that it had clearly stated its "red lines," but Iran did not accept its conditions. Trump indicated that the US would immediately initiate a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing any ships attempting to enter or leave the strait. The Iranian military emphasized that all maritime activity in the Strait of Hormuz is currently under the close monitoring and complete control of the Iranian armed forces, and any misstep would inflict serious losses on the enemy. (CCTV News)
After negotiations broke down, Trump considered a limited strike against Iran.
Following the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks led by Vice President Vance, Trump is considering restarting limited military strikes while simultaneously closing the Strait of Hormuz. According to multiple officials and sources, Trump might also restart a full-scale bombing campaign, but this is less likely given the potential to further escalate regional instability and his reluctance to engage in a protracted military conflict. He could also opt for a temporary blockade while pressuring allies to assume responsibility for long-term military escort missions in the Strait. After the breakdown of US-Iran talks in Pakistan, Trump spent most of Sunday at his private resort in Dorra, a suburb of Miami, Florida, participating in a Fox News program, playing golf, and communicating with advisors. Aides say that despite announcing a blockade and again threatening to strike Iranian infrastructure, he remains open to resolving the issue through diplomatic means. Trump stated on Fox News, "I don't want to do this, but their waters, their desalination facilities, their power plants—these targets are very vulnerable." (CCTV)
British media: Britain will not participate in blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Several British media outlets reported on the 12th that Britain will not participate in any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Sky News quoted a government spokesperson as saying that Britain will continue to support the restoration of the Strait of Hormuz to open water, and that it should not become a toll-filled passage. Britain is currently working with France and other countries to form an alliance on this matter. Earlier that day, Trump threatened on social media that the US Navy would immediately begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz, given Iran's refusal to compromise on the crucial issue of its nuclear program. (Xinhua)
The U.S. Central Command stated that it began blockading Iranian ports on the 13th.
U.S. Central Command: In accordance with a presidential proclamation, U.S. Central Command forces will begin imposing a blockade on all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on April 13 (22:00 Beijing Time). This blockade will apply equally to all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports located in the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Central Command forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports. Further information will be provided to merchant seafarers through formal notification prior to the start of the blockade. All seafarers are advised to closely monitor Notices to Navigators (NONA) broadcasts while navigating in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, and to contact the U.S. Navy via Channel 16. (Xinhua)
Iranian Revolutionary Guard: Non-military vessels are permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
On April 12 local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued Announcement No. 59, stating that non-military vessels are permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided they adhere to specific navigational guidelines. The statement indicated that any military vessel from any country, regardless of its name or pretext, attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement and will face a severe and forceful response from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. (CCTV News)
The South Korean government will maintain "emergency mode" after the US-Iran negotiations failed.
The South Korean presidential office, Cheong Wa Dae, said on the 12th that due to the failure of negotiations between the United States and Iran to reach any agreement, the South Korean government will maintain its current "emergency response mode" to address the impact of the Middle East situation on the country's economy. Cheong Wa Dae held a meeting that afternoon, where relevant departments coordinated response plans to the Middle East situation. Cheong Wa Dae Deputy Spokesperson Jeon Eun-soo said that participants unanimously agreed that given the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations and the current international situation, the South Korean economy still faces uncertainty. Even if the US and Iran reach an agreement, the restoration of normal international oil transportation and the repair of Middle Eastern energy production facilities will take a considerable amount of time. Jeon Eun-soo said that considering these factors, until the US-Israel-Iran conflict is completely over, the South Korean government has decided to continue "strictly implementing the current emergency response posture," with President Lee Jae-myung continuing to chair emergency economic meetings, and the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister responsible for coordinating emergency response measures. (Xinhua)
US media reports three main sticking points in US-Iran negotiations.
The New York Times reported on the 12th, citing two knowledgeable Iranian officials, that three main sticking points exist in the US-Iran negotiations: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the issue of enriched uranium, and the unfreezing of Iranian overseas assets. The report stated that the US had demanded Iran immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, allowing all maritime traffic. The two officials said, "Iran refuses to relinquish control of this vital waterway," and indicated that it would only do so after a final peace agreement is reached. Iranian officials said that Iran is demanding compensation from the US for damage caused by the airstrikes and the unfreezing of frozen oil revenues in Iraq, Luxembourg, Bahrain, Japan, Qatar, Turkey, and Germany for reconstruction purposes. However, the US has rejected these demands. The report also stated that another issue is US President Trump's demand that Iran "hand over or sell all of its near-weapon-grade enriched uranium stockpiles." Officials indicated that Iran has submitted a counter-proposal, but the two sides have failed to reach a compromise. (Xinhua)
The US and UK are concerned that AI will expose vulnerabilities in the financial industry.
Anthropic released a preview version of its AI model, Mythos, prompting the US government to convene an emergency meeting with bank executives to discuss related issues. Anthropic claims that the Mythos model can identify and exploit vulnerabilities in "all major operating systems and all major web browsers," significantly outperforming traditional manual processes in both speed and scale. Due to cybersecurity concerns, the company has not widely rolled out the model. Sources indicate that following the model's release, US Treasury Secretary Bessant and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell quickly convened an emergency meeting with executives from several banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, to ensure that banks understand the potential risks of the Mythos model and similar models and take measures to protect their systems. Furthermore, reports suggest that the UK banking sector is also closely monitoring the Mythos model, and the Bank of England will discuss related issues with the Treasury and other institutions at an upcoming meeting. (CCTV Finance)
Israeli citizens held demonstrations calling on the Israeli government to immediately cease fire.
On November 11 local time, thousands of Israelis held an anti-war demonstration in Tel Aviv, condemning the Israeli government's continued military operations abroad and demanding that the government immediately cease hostilities and resolve regional disputes through dialogue and negotiation. (CCTV News)
my country successfully develops key components for reusable spacecraft
The China Academy of Space Technology (CAST), a subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), announced on April 11 that its 5-meter-diameter composite material power module, developed by the academy, has officially rolled off the production line. This is the largest integral composite material module for reusable launch vehicles in China's aerospace field, and its successful development marks a major breakthrough in my country's large-size aerospace composite material structure manufacturing technology.
Over 87% of Chinese students studying abroad choose to return to China for their careers.
According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Education, from 1978 to 2025, a total of 9.46 million Chinese students studied abroad. 8.01 million completed their studies, of whom 6.98 million returned to China, with over 87% choosing to return to China for their careers. (CCTV News)
stock market
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.56%, the S&P 500 down 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.35%. However, all three major indexes posted their biggest weekly gains since November. Investors remained cautious ahead of the weekend, closely watching developments in Middle East peace talks.
On the economic data front, the CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in March, in line with expectations, but recorded its largest monthly increase in nearly four years due to soaring energy prices; the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low.
Among individual stocks, CoreWeave rose 10.9% due to its partnership with Anthropic, while Broadcom and Nvidia led the technology sector with gains of 4.7% and 2.6% respectively, while the financial and consumer staples sectors lagged behind. The market is focused on the upcoming earnings season, with S&P 500 earnings expected to grow by 13.9% year-over-year.
Key Focus Today
OPEC will release its monthly oil market report (the exact release time is to be determined, but it is generally released around 6-9 PM Beijing time); the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank will hold their spring meetings; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will visit the United States from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and International Monetary and Financial Committee meetings.
Gold Market
Gold prices held steady at $4,761.79 an ounce on Friday, having risen nearly 2% for the week, but U.S. gold futures closed down 0.6% at $4,787.40. Market focus was on the sustainability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement; although the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked and the conflict in Lebanon put the ceasefire to the test, a weaker dollar provided support for gold prices.
Data showed that U.S. consumer prices rose by the largest month-on-month increase in nearly four years in March, in line with expectations. In other precious metals, spot silver rose 1.6% to $76.26, platinum fell 2.3%, and palladium fell 1.9%, but all three are poised for weekly gains.
oil market
International oil prices closed lower on Friday, with Brent crude futures falling 0.8% to $95.20 a barrel and WTI crude futures falling 1.3% to $96.57 a barrel. For the week, Brent and WTI crude fell 12.7% and 13.4% respectively, marking their largest weekly declines since 2022. The sell-off occurred on the eve of negotiations between Iran and the United States aimed at reaching a permanent ceasefire agreement, despite severe restrictions on oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz and the attacks already reducing Saudi oil production by 600,000 barrels per day.
Analysts point out that the key to the oil market lies in whether shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz can resume. Furthermore, the U.S. Energy Information Administration stated that Middle Eastern oil-producing countries cut production by approximately 7.5 million barrels per day in March, and the reduction is expected to widen further in April; meanwhile, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas drilling rigs last week, down about 7% compared to the same period last year.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar index fell on Friday, marking its biggest weekly drop since January, as investors unwound safe-haven positions and bet that a ceasefire in the Gulf would restore oil shipments.
The euro traded at $1.173, up 1.8% last week; the pound traded at $1.347, up 2%; and the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars rose nearly 3% against the dollar last week. Despite signs of a breakdown in the ceasefire agreement appearing on Friday, the market remains generally optimistic.
Data showed that US consumer prices rose at their highest level in nearly four years in March, but this was in line with expectations. The market is more focused on the outcome of the peace talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad this weekend. Analysts say that positive progress in the talks would be detrimental to the dollar, while a negative outcome could quickly reverse the trend. The yen fell to 159.255 against the dollar.
International News
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 98.4%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by June has dropped to 0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 1.8%.
Negotiations failed, and the US and Iran again took a hard line on the Strait of Hormuz.
Negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad ended on the 12th without any agreement. Iran stated that the negotiations were conducted in an "atmosphere of distrust and suspicion," with disagreements remaining on two or three key issues. The US stated that it had clearly stated its "red lines," but Iran did not accept its conditions. Trump indicated that the US would immediately initiate a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing any ships attempting to enter or leave the strait. The Iranian military emphasized that all maritime activity in the Strait of Hormuz is currently under the close monitoring and complete control of the Iranian armed forces, and any misstep would inflict serious losses on the enemy. (CCTV News)
After negotiations broke down, Trump considered a limited strike against Iran.
Following the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks led by Vice President Vance, Trump is considering restarting limited military strikes while simultaneously closing the Strait of Hormuz. According to multiple officials and sources, Trump might also restart a full-scale bombing campaign, but this is less likely given the potential to further escalate regional instability and his reluctance to engage in a protracted military conflict. He could also opt for a temporary blockade while pressuring allies to assume responsibility for long-term military escort missions in the Strait. After the breakdown of US-Iran talks in Pakistan, Trump spent most of Sunday at his private resort in Dorra, a suburb of Miami, Florida, participating in a Fox News program, playing golf, and communicating with advisors. Aides say that despite announcing a blockade and again threatening to strike Iranian infrastructure, he remains open to resolving the issue through diplomatic means. Trump stated on Fox News, "I don't want to do this, but their waters, their desalination facilities, their power plants—these targets are very vulnerable." (CCTV)
British media: Britain will not participate in blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Several British media outlets reported on the 12th that Britain will not participate in any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Sky News quoted a government spokesperson as saying that Britain will continue to support the restoration of the Strait of Hormuz to open water, and that it should not become a toll-filled passage. Britain is currently working with France and other countries to form an alliance on this matter. Earlier that day, Trump threatened on social media that the US Navy would immediately begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz, given Iran's refusal to compromise on the crucial issue of its nuclear program. (Xinhua)
The U.S. Central Command stated that it began blockading Iranian ports on the 13th.
U.S. Central Command: In accordance with a presidential proclamation, U.S. Central Command forces will begin imposing a blockade on all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on April 13 (22:00 Beijing Time). This blockade will apply equally to all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports located in the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Central Command forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports. Further information will be provided to merchant seafarers through formal notification prior to the start of the blockade. All seafarers are advised to closely monitor Notices to Navigators (NONA) broadcasts while navigating in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, and to contact the U.S. Navy via Channel 16. (Xinhua)
Iranian Revolutionary Guard: Non-military vessels are permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
On April 12 local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued Announcement No. 59, stating that non-military vessels are permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided they adhere to specific navigational guidelines. The statement indicated that any military vessel from any country, regardless of its name or pretext, attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement and will face a severe and forceful response from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. (CCTV News)
The South Korean government will maintain "emergency mode" after the US-Iran negotiations failed.
The South Korean presidential office, Cheong Wa Dae, said on the 12th that due to the failure of negotiations between the United States and Iran to reach any agreement, the South Korean government will maintain its current "emergency response mode" to address the impact of the Middle East situation on the country's economy. Cheong Wa Dae held a meeting that afternoon, where relevant departments coordinated response plans to the Middle East situation. Cheong Wa Dae Deputy Spokesperson Jeon Eun-soo said that participants unanimously agreed that given the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations and the current international situation, the South Korean economy still faces uncertainty. Even if the US and Iran reach an agreement, the restoration of normal international oil transportation and the repair of Middle Eastern energy production facilities will take a considerable amount of time. Jeon Eun-soo said that considering these factors, until the US-Israel-Iran conflict is completely over, the South Korean government has decided to continue "strictly implementing the current emergency response posture," with President Lee Jae-myung continuing to chair emergency economic meetings, and the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister responsible for coordinating emergency response measures. (Xinhua)
US media reports three main sticking points in US-Iran negotiations.
The New York Times reported on the 12th, citing two knowledgeable Iranian officials, that three main sticking points exist in the US-Iran negotiations: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the issue of enriched uranium, and the unfreezing of Iranian overseas assets. The report stated that the US had demanded Iran immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, allowing all maritime traffic. The two officials said, "Iran refuses to relinquish control of this vital waterway," and indicated that it would only do so after a final peace agreement is reached. Iranian officials said that Iran is demanding compensation from the US for damage caused by the airstrikes and the unfreezing of frozen oil revenues in Iraq, Luxembourg, Bahrain, Japan, Qatar, Turkey, and Germany for reconstruction purposes. However, the US has rejected these demands. The report also stated that another issue is US President Trump's demand that Iran "hand over or sell all of its near-weapon-grade enriched uranium stockpiles." Officials indicated that Iran has submitted a counter-proposal, but the two sides have failed to reach a compromise. (Xinhua)
The US and UK are concerned that AI will expose vulnerabilities in the financial industry.
Anthropic released a preview version of its AI model, Mythos, prompting the US government to convene an emergency meeting with bank executives to discuss related issues. Anthropic claims that the Mythos model can identify and exploit vulnerabilities in "all major operating systems and all major web browsers," significantly outperforming traditional manual processes in both speed and scale. Due to cybersecurity concerns, the company has not widely rolled out the model. Sources indicate that following the model's release, US Treasury Secretary Bessant and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell quickly convened an emergency meeting with executives from several banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, to ensure that banks understand the potential risks of the Mythos model and similar models and take measures to protect their systems. Furthermore, reports suggest that the UK banking sector is also closely monitoring the Mythos model, and the Bank of England will discuss related issues with the Treasury and other institutions at an upcoming meeting. (CCTV Finance)
Israeli citizens held demonstrations calling on the Israeli government to immediately cease fire.
On November 11 local time, thousands of Israelis held an anti-war demonstration in Tel Aviv, condemning the Israeli government's continued military operations abroad and demanding that the government immediately cease hostilities and resolve regional disputes through dialogue and negotiation. (CCTV News)
Domestic News
my country successfully develops key components for reusable spacecraft
The China Academy of Space Technology (CAST), a subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), announced on April 11 that its 5-meter-diameter composite material power module, developed by the academy, has officially rolled off the production line. This is the largest integral composite material module for reusable launch vehicles in China's aerospace field, and its successful development marks a major breakthrough in my country's large-size aerospace composite material structure manufacturing technology.
Over 87% of Chinese students studying abroad choose to return to China for their careers.
According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Education, from 1978 to 2025, a total of 9.46 million Chinese students studied abroad. 8.01 million completed their studies, of whom 6.98 million returned to China, with over 87% choosing to return to China for their careers. (CCTV News)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
