The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations caused the US dollar index to rise above the 99 mark and maintain its strength.
2026-04-13 09:42:34
The US dollar index maintained its overall strength, although gains narrowed somewhat during the session, it remained stable near key levels. The current dollar performance is supported by both safe-haven demand and interest rate expectations, a market logic that is significantly stronger than before.
In the context of this event, the renewed escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran has become the focus of the market. The approximately 21 hours of negotiations over the weekend failed to reach an agreement, rapidly cooling previous market expectations for a de-escalation. US Vice President Vance confirmed the failure of the negotiations, a result that directly contributed to a decline in global market risk appetite.
Following this, the United States announced it would impose blockade measures on key shipping lanes. President Trump stated that restrictions would be placed on all vessels entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. Central Command confirmed that it would formally launch operations targeting related maritime traffic on Monday. This move triggered market concerns about energy supply disruptions and simultaneously strengthened demand for safe-haven assets.
From a market performance perspective, the US dollar index remained around 99.00 during the Asian session, generally trading in positive territory. Although some profit-taking narrowed the gains, safe-haven inflows continued to support the dollar. Against the backdrop of rising global uncertainty, the dollar's liquidity advantage as a major reserve currency has once again become prominent.
Meanwhile, US macroeconomic data further solidified the fundamental support for the US dollar. Data showed that the US CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in March, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.4% , and increased by 0.9% month-on-month; core CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and increased by 0.2% month-on-month. The rebound in inflation data strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain its high-interest-rate policy.
On the policy front, statements from Federal Reserve officials have further solidified this expectation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that if inflation remains high, the Fed will maintain current interest rates until its price stability goal is achieved. However, she also noted that a rate cut is still possible if the situation in the Middle East eases rapidly and oil prices fall. This statement reflects the current policy path's high dependence on external risks and inflation trends.
From a global market perspective, a stronger US dollar is putting some pressure on other assets. Non-US currencies are generally under pressure, especially emerging market currencies facing capital outflows. At the same time, a stronger dollar coupled with a high-interest-rate environment is also suppressing non-interest-bearing assets such as gold, while rising energy prices further exacerbate global inflation uncertainty.
In terms of market sentiment, investors are reassessing the risk-return structure. Previous optimism about interest rate cuts has gradually cooled, replaced by a repricing of "higher interest rates for a longer period." At the same time, rising geopolitical risks are also causing funds to flow more into dollar assets, strengthening their safe-haven characteristics.
The key variables currently attracting investor attention include: whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate further, whether oil prices will remain high, and whether the Federal Reserve will release clearer policy signals. These factors will directly determine the future direction of the US dollar index.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the US dollar index is generally in a range-bound but slightly bullish pattern, having stabilized after a previous pullback. The key support level is currently around 98.20 , while resistance is concentrated at the 100.00 psychological level and the previous high area. In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD is gradually turning into a golden cross, and the RSI has risen to the mid-to-high range, indicating a recovery in bullish momentum.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, the US dollar index maintains a short-term upward trend with fluctuations, repeatedly testing the 99.50 area but failing to break through effectively. If it can hold above this level, it may further test the 100 mark ; conversely, if it breaks below the 98.50 support, it may pull back to around 98.00 for consolidation. Overall, the short-term trend remains bullish, but the risk of high-level consolidation should be noted.
Editor's Summary <br/>Overall, the current strength of the US dollar index is mainly driven by two factors: firstly, increased safe-haven demand due to escalating tensions in the Middle East; and secondly, stronger US inflation data reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates. This dual support of "safe-haven demand + interest rates" gives the dollar strong resilience in the short term. Looking ahead, if geopolitical risks continue to escalate and oil prices remain high, the dollar may strengthen further and test the 100 level; however, if the situation eases or inflation declines, the dollar's upward momentum may weaken. Risks include increased volatility due to changes in market expectations, while opportunities lie in the dollar's continued investment value in a high-interest-rate environment.
In the context of this event, the renewed escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran has become the focus of the market. The approximately 21 hours of negotiations over the weekend failed to reach an agreement, rapidly cooling previous market expectations for a de-escalation. US Vice President Vance confirmed the failure of the negotiations, a result that directly contributed to a decline in global market risk appetite.
Following this, the United States announced it would impose blockade measures on key shipping lanes. President Trump stated that restrictions would be placed on all vessels entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. Central Command confirmed that it would formally launch operations targeting related maritime traffic on Monday. This move triggered market concerns about energy supply disruptions and simultaneously strengthened demand for safe-haven assets.
From a market performance perspective, the US dollar index remained around 99.00 during the Asian session, generally trading in positive territory. Although some profit-taking narrowed the gains, safe-haven inflows continued to support the dollar. Against the backdrop of rising global uncertainty, the dollar's liquidity advantage as a major reserve currency has once again become prominent.
Meanwhile, US macroeconomic data further solidified the fundamental support for the US dollar. Data showed that the US CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in March, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.4% , and increased by 0.9% month-on-month; core CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and increased by 0.2% month-on-month. The rebound in inflation data strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain its high-interest-rate policy.
On the policy front, statements from Federal Reserve officials have further solidified this expectation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that if inflation remains high, the Fed will maintain current interest rates until its price stability goal is achieved. However, she also noted that a rate cut is still possible if the situation in the Middle East eases rapidly and oil prices fall. This statement reflects the current policy path's high dependence on external risks and inflation trends.
From a global market perspective, a stronger US dollar is putting some pressure on other assets. Non-US currencies are generally under pressure, especially emerging market currencies facing capital outflows. At the same time, a stronger dollar coupled with a high-interest-rate environment is also suppressing non-interest-bearing assets such as gold, while rising energy prices further exacerbate global inflation uncertainty.
In terms of market sentiment, investors are reassessing the risk-return structure. Previous optimism about interest rate cuts has gradually cooled, replaced by a repricing of "higher interest rates for a longer period." At the same time, rising geopolitical risks are also causing funds to flow more into dollar assets, strengthening their safe-haven characteristics.
The key variables currently attracting investor attention include: whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate further, whether oil prices will remain high, and whether the Federal Reserve will release clearer policy signals. These factors will directly determine the future direction of the US dollar index.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the US dollar index is generally in a range-bound but slightly bullish pattern, having stabilized after a previous pullback. The key support level is currently around 98.20 , while resistance is concentrated at the 100.00 psychological level and the previous high area. In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD is gradually turning into a golden cross, and the RSI has risen to the mid-to-high range, indicating a recovery in bullish momentum.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, the US dollar index maintains a short-term upward trend with fluctuations, repeatedly testing the 99.50 area but failing to break through effectively. If it can hold above this level, it may further test the 100 mark ; conversely, if it breaks below the 98.50 support, it may pull back to around 98.00 for consolidation. Overall, the short-term trend remains bullish, but the risk of high-level consolidation should be noted.
Editor's Summary <br/>Overall, the current strength of the US dollar index is mainly driven by two factors: firstly, increased safe-haven demand due to escalating tensions in the Middle East; and secondly, stronger US inflation data reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates. This dual support of "safe-haven demand + interest rates" gives the dollar strong resilience in the short term. Looking ahead, if geopolitical risks continue to escalate and oil prices remain high, the dollar may strengthen further and test the 100 level; however, if the situation eases or inflation declines, the dollar's upward momentum may weaken. Risks include increased volatility due to changes in market expectations, while opportunities lie in the dollar's continued investment value in a high-interest-rate environment.
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