A report released by the United Nations Development Programme on April 13 during the IMF Spring Meetings 2026 pointed out that the protracted war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has not only severely damaged development and people's livelihoods in the Middle East, but its spillover effects are also having a lasting impact on the global economy, triggering a "triple shock" of energy market turmoil, rising food prices, and sluggish economic growth, with a pessimistic outlook.

Economists estimate that this conflict, which originated in the Middle East, has become the core trigger for global economic risks, and its impact continues to expand in both depth and breadth.

Energy crisis triggers: Asia-Pacific economies suffer hundreds of billions in losses

After the US-Iran peace talks failed to restart shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the Trump administration announced a blockade of this crucial waterway, directly cutting off a vital global energy transport artery.

As the worst oil crisis in history, crude oil and natural gas prices surged, significantly dragging down global economic growth expectations (Economic Information Daily).

The United Nations Development Programme estimates that military escalation in the Middle East will cause a loss of $97 billion to $299 billion in output in the Asia-Pacific region by driving up transportation and electricity costs, equivalent to 0.3% to 0.8% of the region's GDP.

Globally, 32 million people will fall into poverty due to war, including 8.8 million in the Asia-Pacific region.

As a major importer of Middle Eastern energy, Asia is particularly sensitive to the impact of supply shortages.

South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and other key U.S. allies rely on Middle Eastern energy supplies that are nearly exhausted, and they are making every effort to save their economies. Canni Wignarajja, the U.S. Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific, said: "This is a huge shock that came on suddenly, with economic activity coming to a complete standstill and reserves being forced to be used."

If countries adjust quickly, the regional GDP loss will be approximately $97 billion to $100 billion; if many countries deplete their reserves and have no backup support, the losses will triple.

It is worth noting that Asia, as the world's most populous continent and home to half of the world's manufacturing industry, has seen its economic turmoil generate significant global spillover effects.

The report presents three scenario projections regarding the impact of the conflict. The worst-case scenario involves a severe disruption to oil and gas production for six weeks and high living costs for eight months, with some net energy importers facing the most direct impact. The latest calculations by the Asian Development Bank show that, due to disruptions in Middle Eastern commodity supplies, Asia-Pacific economic growth will slow from 5.4% to 5.1% in 2026-2027, while regional inflation will rise from 3% to 3.6%. ADB Chief Economist Park Jung-hyun stated bluntly: "A prolonged conflict in the Middle East is the single biggest risk to the Asia-Pacific economy, which will push up energy and food prices and tighten financial conditions."

Food security in crisis: the world may face catastrophic shortages.

The chain reaction of the energy crisis has quickly spread to the agricultural sector.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has repeatedly warned that if the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues for a long time, it could evolve into a global food disaster. The key reason is that about half of the world's food production depends on fertilizers, and one-third of the world's fertilizer trade used to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the outbreak of the conflict, the strait has been basically closed, resulting in 21 cargo ships carrying 980,000 tons of fertilizer being stranded in the Persian Gulf, triggering a surge of more than 20% in global fertilizer prices in a single week.

FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero pointed out that if the global fertilizer shortage continues into early summer, the yield of major crops may be halved, triggering the most severe round of global food inflation in recent years. Developed countries will be the most severely impacted, as delays in the supply of key agricultural inputs will disrupt planting plans, rapidly leading to reduced food production and soaring inflation, which in turn will drag down global economic growth. The Deputy Secretary-General of the Russian Security Council has also issued a grim warning that the Middle East crisis will push the global hunger population to a record 673 million.

As the world's largest wheat exporter and a major fertilizer producer, Russia has proposed a solution: establishing joint grain reserves with other BRICS countries and former Soviet neighbors to hedge against global food security risks. However, Russia also faces practical constraints—it no longer has the capacity to significantly increase fertilizer production this year. While the current situation poses risks to Russia's own food security, it also creates long-term opportunities for the country's agricultural producers. Russia stated that it plans to increase agricultural exports by 50% by 2030 and is fully capable of increasing food exports to the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The FAO emphasizes that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, countries need urgent financial assistance to ensure fertilizer supplies for the planting season; otherwise, a global food crisis will be inevitable.

Global Response and Long-Term Dilemma: Difficulty in Returning to Pre-War Normal

Faced with the dual crises of energy and food, governments worldwide have introduced measures such as ensuring supply, suppressing demand, and providing fiscal subsidies to offset the impact. However, the United Nations Development Programme points out that the pressure to control inflation, protect livelihoods, and stabilize public finances will only continue to intensify. Several international institutions have also issued pessimistic forecasts.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will release its latest World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, and is expected to lower its global growth forecast. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva acknowledged, "Without this shock, we would have raised our global growth forecast, but now even in the most optimistic scenario, we need to lower it due to infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, collapsed confidence, and long-term scarring effects."
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Although both the US and Iran have stated that peace talks will continue, and US officials are planning a second face-to-face meeting, analysts generally believe that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would take months for the market to return to normal. Georgieva bluntly stated, "Even in the best-case scenario, it would be difficult to easily return to the pre-war state." The United Nations Development Programme has called on the international community to provide approximately $6 billion in aid to alleviate public pressure through short-term cash transfers and energy subsidies, but given the backdrop of weak global economic growth, the effectiveness of this appeal remains questionable.

This war, which began in the Middle East, has spread its impact globally through the two core industrial chains of energy and food. Neither developed nor underdeveloped economies can remain unaffected. In the short term, the duration of the conflict will directly determine the intensity of the crisis.

In the long run, the global supply chain’s dependence on a single channel has been exposed, and energy structure transformation and food security autonomy may become the core directions for future policy adjustments in various countries.