Expectations for a US-Iran deal are rising, and risk appetite continues to spread.
2026-04-14 19:53:54
As expected, the first face-to-face talks in decades between Iranian and U.S. officials in Pakistan last weekend failed to reach a substantive agreement, but the two-week ceasefire agreement reached on April 8 remains in effect. The core disagreement in these negotiations centered on the Iranian nuclear issue, which was also the direct reason for U.S. President Trump's approval of a 45-day military operation.
In response to the Iranian nuclear issue, the Trump administration decided to impose a strait blockade on all ships originating from or planning to dock at Iranian ports. Most analysts believe this move is purely a negotiating tactic, with the core objective of cutting off Iran's oil revenue stream and forcing it back to the negotiating table for further consultations, adding further uncertainty to an already complex geopolitical situation.
Meanwhile, the United States is attempting to push China, a major importer of oil from Iran, to participate more deeply in the current peace negotiations. It is noteworthy that Russian President Vladimir Putin has clearly stated his willingness to provide assistance in mediating the US-Iran dispute if needed.
Interestingly, US Vice President Vance publicly stated last night that negotiations with Iran have made some progress. Within the camp advocating a hardline stance against Iran, Vance is considered the most likely key figure to push for an agreement, and his position, to some extent, balances the hardline stance repeatedly displayed by the Trump administration. Other reports indicate that US and Iranian officials may hold a new round of face-to-face talks this Thursday or early next week.
The market is experiencing sharp fluctuations, and the battle between bulls and bears is intensifying.
The risk of headlines in the market remains extremely high – within the same trading session, optimistic speculation about an agreement emerged, followed by news of a deadlock in direct communication, a reversal that sparked concerns about another surge in oil prices.
Oil prices are currently hovering below the $100 per barrel mark, with the high of $95.51 per barrel reached on September 28, 2023, temporarily acting as a support level. It's important to note that while positive signals have emerged from geopolitical developments, this doesn't necessarily mean oil prices will immediately fall, as the normalization of oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz could take several months. Reports suggest the International Energy Agency (IEA) may further release oil reserves, an expectation that has somewhat suppressed price increases, but its impact is negligible compared to overall global energy demand.
The US dollar and US stocks have already priced in expectations of a trade agreement.
Market risk appetite has rebounded across the board, with the euro rising to its highest level against the dollar since March 2 (the first trading day after the US-Israel joint action against Iran), almost completely erasing the dollar's gains previously made due to the geopolitical crisis.
Similarly, after Monday's strong stock market rally, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have both recovered the ground lost due to the Middle East crisis, while only the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still about 1.3% lower than its closing price on February 27.
Overall, investors generally believe that a US-Iran agreement may be closer than widely expected—a somewhat surprising market expectation given the repeated tug-of-war in previous negotiations. Therefore, if developments in the coming days fail to meet current market expectations, it could trigger significant market disappointment.
Meanwhile, gold prices remain trapped between the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, about 10% lower than the closing price at the end of February, failing to fully capitalize on the recent support from a weaker dollar. However, the precious metal appears poised to break out of its range, though the direction of the breakout remains uncertain. If concrete positive news emerges from the Middle East situation, gold prices could see a rebound.
Today's financial schedule is busy.
Following the weaker-than-expected March U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a sharp decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, market focus will shift to the March U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)—considered a leading indicator of future CPI inflation. Meanwhile, a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve officials will also be closely watched. At least five Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will speak today, their stances spanning the entire spectrum from hawkish to dovish. In addition, the U.S. banking earnings season continues, with more banks releasing their results; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will also release its World Economic Outlook report today, which, given the current energy crisis, is likely to issue warnings about global economic growth.
In response to the Iranian nuclear issue, the Trump administration decided to impose a strait blockade on all ships originating from or planning to dock at Iranian ports. Most analysts believe this move is purely a negotiating tactic, with the core objective of cutting off Iran's oil revenue stream and forcing it back to the negotiating table for further consultations, adding further uncertainty to an already complex geopolitical situation.
Meanwhile, the United States is attempting to push China, a major importer of oil from Iran, to participate more deeply in the current peace negotiations. It is noteworthy that Russian President Vladimir Putin has clearly stated his willingness to provide assistance in mediating the US-Iran dispute if needed.
Interestingly, US Vice President Vance publicly stated last night that negotiations with Iran have made some progress. Within the camp advocating a hardline stance against Iran, Vance is considered the most likely key figure to push for an agreement, and his position, to some extent, balances the hardline stance repeatedly displayed by the Trump administration. Other reports indicate that US and Iranian officials may hold a new round of face-to-face talks this Thursday or early next week.
The market is experiencing sharp fluctuations, and the battle between bulls and bears is intensifying.
The risk of headlines in the market remains extremely high – within the same trading session, optimistic speculation about an agreement emerged, followed by news of a deadlock in direct communication, a reversal that sparked concerns about another surge in oil prices.
Oil prices are currently hovering below the $100 per barrel mark, with the high of $95.51 per barrel reached on September 28, 2023, temporarily acting as a support level. It's important to note that while positive signals have emerged from geopolitical developments, this doesn't necessarily mean oil prices will immediately fall, as the normalization of oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz could take several months. Reports suggest the International Energy Agency (IEA) may further release oil reserves, an expectation that has somewhat suppressed price increases, but its impact is negligible compared to overall global energy demand.
The US dollar and US stocks have already priced in expectations of a trade agreement.
Market risk appetite has rebounded across the board, with the euro rising to its highest level against the dollar since March 2 (the first trading day after the US-Israel joint action against Iran), almost completely erasing the dollar's gains previously made due to the geopolitical crisis.
Similarly, after Monday's strong stock market rally, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have both recovered the ground lost due to the Middle East crisis, while only the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still about 1.3% lower than its closing price on February 27.
Overall, investors generally believe that a US-Iran agreement may be closer than widely expected—a somewhat surprising market expectation given the repeated tug-of-war in previous negotiations. Therefore, if developments in the coming days fail to meet current market expectations, it could trigger significant market disappointment.
Meanwhile, gold prices remain trapped between the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, about 10% lower than the closing price at the end of February, failing to fully capitalize on the recent support from a weaker dollar. However, the precious metal appears poised to break out of its range, though the direction of the breakout remains uncertain. If concrete positive news emerges from the Middle East situation, gold prices could see a rebound.
Today's financial schedule is busy.
Following the weaker-than-expected March U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a sharp decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, market focus will shift to the March U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)—considered a leading indicator of future CPI inflation. Meanwhile, a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve officials will also be closely watched. At least five Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will speak today, their stances spanning the entire spectrum from hawkish to dovish. In addition, the U.S. banking earnings season continues, with more banks releasing their results; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will also release its World Economic Outlook report today, which, given the current energy crisis, is likely to issue warnings about global economic growth.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
