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[Caixin Futures: Steel Prices Fluctuate, Iron Ore Slightly Weak, Coking Coal Remains on the Wait-and-See Approach, Coke Prices Fluctuate with a Slightly Stronger Bias, Manganese Silicon Fluctuates with a Slightly Weak Bias] ⑴ Steel: Supply and demand are both increasing, inventory continues to decline, but real contradictions are still accumulating. In terms of funds, the main rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts are rolling over to the next month. The top 20 long and short positions in the rebar 10 contract both increased, with short positions increasing slightly more. Long positions in the hot-rolled coil 10 contract increased slightly more. Technically, the rebar 10 contract is suppressed by the moving average group. The upper resistance level to watch is 3110-3125, and the lower support level is around 3070-3085. In summary, the continued increase in hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts is suppressing the near-month contract, coupled with the continued increase in pig iron production bringing supply concerns. In the short term, steel prices will fluctuate with costs. The peak demand during the peak season has yet to be verified, but the valuation is at a neutral to slightly low level, and the downside is also limited. ⑵ Iron Ore: Negotiations between China Mineral Resources and BHP may have eased somewhat. Supply pressure is disturbing market sentiment. Iron ore is currently in a stable supply and increasing demand pattern. In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top 20 holders of the 09 contract increased, with short positions increasing slightly more, indicating intense competition among funds. Technically, the 09 contract remains under pressure from the 60-day moving average and may fluctuate around the 750-780 range in the short term. Overall, pig iron production has not yet peaked, and steel mills' restocking expectations persist, but the medium-term outlook is leaning towards easing due to crude steel regulation, and the iron ore market's strong reality and weak expectations remain unchanged. A short-term strategy of consolidation is recommended, while a medium-term strategy is to wait for a rebound before shorting opportunities. ⑶ Coking Coal: Supply changes at production sites are limited, and Mongolian coal clearance remains high. On the demand side, downstream procurement remains cautious, and coal prices are generally stable; pig iron production is running at high levels, coupled with pre-holiday restocking expectations, providing support for spot prices. In terms of funding, the main contract is in the rollover phase, with both long and short positions in the top 20 holders of the 09 contract increasing, with roughly equal increases in open interest, indicating continued competition among funds. Technically, the coking coal 09 contract is suppressed by the 5-day moving average, with support at 1185-1195 and resistance at 1230-1250. Overall, although the near-month contract is suppressed by potential delivery pressure, the market has already reacted, and with the basis narrowing, it may shift to a consolidation phase in the short term. (4) Coke: Driven by profits, coke producers maintain high operating rates; pig iron production continues to increase, strengthening support for coke, and daily consumption has significantly improved, with a second round of price increases expected. In terms of valuation, the 05 contract is trading at a discount for nearly two rounds, and the relatively low valuation provides support for the near-month contract. Overall, downside potential is limited, and short-term trends will mainly follow raw coal. (5) Manganese silicon: From its own fundamentals, ferromanganese producers maintain low operating rates, cost pressures remain high, and expectations of production cuts persist. Downstream procurement remains on an as-needed basis, and the supply and demand situation is acceptable. Technically, the manganese silicon 05 contract is suppressed by the 5-day moving average, with support likely at the 60-day moving average. It may fluctuate between 6070-6260 in the short term. In terms of funding, both long and short positions among the top 20 holders of the May contract decreased, with short positions seeing a larger reduction.