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[Caixin Futures: Copper and Aluminum Fluctuate, Zinc Fluctuates with a Slight Weakness, Precious Metals Fluctuate, Lithium Carbonate Fluctuates with a Slight Strength] ⑴ Shanghai Copper: Geopolitically, negotiations between Iran and the United States in Islamabad, Pakistan, concluded without reaching a consensus. According to Iranian media reports, excessive demands from the United States hindered the formation of a common framework and agreement. The initial US-Iran talks failed to achieve substantial progress, and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remained limited. The US March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, the highest level since June 2024, and rose 0.9% month-on-month, the largest increase since July 2022. Fundamentals have improved somewhat; although downstream demand is only maintaining essential purchases, overall demand remains resilient. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. ⑵ Shanghai Aluminum: Geopolitically, negotiations between the US and Iran failed to reach a consensus, and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remained limited. The US March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month. Fundamentally, directly impacted by geopolitical conflicts, Middle Eastern electrolytic aluminum companies reduced production, the global electrolytic aluminum supply gap is expected to widen, and concerns about overseas supply continue to escalate. Future prices are expected to fluctuate widely. (3) Zinc: Geopolitically, the US-Iran negotiations failed to reach a consensus, limiting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The US March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month. Fundamentally, domestic inventory continues to accumulate, and overall consumption is below expectations; prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. (4) Precious Metals: Geopolitically, Trump announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the interception of oil revenues related to Iran, and threatened to clear Iranian mines. While Iran allowed non-military vessels to pass, it resisted the US's three demands, including "equal distribution of interests in the Strait." Diplomatic ties remain open, but Iran claims the US changed its terms just before an agreement was reached. Coupled with Israel's preparation for another military action against Iran, market concerns about the Iranian situation have increased, leading to a weaker performance in precious metals prices today. The market focus remains on geopolitical tensions, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. (5) Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices rose, with the 2609 contract seeing an increase of 26,000 lots in open interest, raising expectations of a stronger market outlook. However, the futures premium over the spot price is too high; buy on dips. On the supply side: Reports indicate that Chinese-funded enterprises in Zimbabwe have obtained export qualifications, and quotas are expected to ease. These enterprises account for 9% of global supply, and their inventories are expected to gradually decrease after exports are liberalized. However, transportation restrictions may lead to increased supply in the second half of the year. Australian lithium mines account for 23% of global supply, relying on diesel fuel. The impact of blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually becoming apparent; if the conflict continues into May, the risk of production disruptions will increase. Domestically, four mines in Yichun have completed mining rights assessments and may enter a period of production suspension and license renewal in May. This involves approximately 70,000 tons of annual lithium production (LCE), with a six-month impact of about 30,000 tons and a quarterly impact exceeding 10,000 tons. While there is room for short-term speculation, the overall impact on the absolute supply is limited. The overall supply pattern presents a mix of "overseas increases + domestic disruptions," with both easing and risks present.