Download App

[Caixin Futures: Crude Oil Fluctuates at High Levels, Fuel Oil Fluctuates at High Levels, Glass is Weak, Soda Ash is Weak, Caustic Soda is Weak and Fluctuates, Methanol is Fluctuating with a Slightly Stronger Trend] ⑴ Crude Oil: The US "blockade" of Iranian ports has taken effect, and Trump has threatened to destroy Iranian fast attack ships, but many parties are still pushing for renewed negotiations. Considering the relatively muted reaction of domestic energy and chemical products after the opening jump in Brent and WTI crude oil yesterday, short-term fluctuations are expected. ⑵ Fuel Oil: During the war, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, leading to production cuts by oil-producing countries. China has a high dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil, with Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil accounting for 20% of domestic imports. The first round of US-Iran negotiations failed, and the US imposed a blockade on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports, resulting in significant geopolitical shifts. Short-term high-level fluctuations are expected. ⑶ Glass: Factory shipments in the Shahe market remain average, demand remains weak, and there are still expectations of increased supply in the short term. Market participants lack confidence and are mainly buying only for immediate needs, focusing on buying on dips. The current daily industry output is 144,900 tons (supply data revised). However, weekly inventory increased by 2.29% week-on-week and 15.54% year-on-year last week. Overall, the low supply level provides some support for prices, but demand expectations are weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely without any significant drivers. (4) Soda Ash: Today, the domestic soda ash market was stable with prices firm and undergoing narrow adjustments. Some enterprises experienced short-term shutdowns and fluctuating operating rates, but the overall impact was not significant. Downstream demand was lukewarm, mainly for immediate needs, with restocking at low prices. The soda ash capacity utilization rate was 83.39%, with operating rates increasing as maintenance shutdowns ended. Total soda ash inventory increased by 12,200 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday, a rise of 0.65%. Last week, total social inventory remained above 350,000 tons, an increase of over 10,000 tons. (5) Caustic Soda: Today, the price of low-degree soda ash in Shandong was generally stable, with downward pressure in southwestern and southern Shandong. Liquid chlorine in Shandong continued to rise, and the overall market operating rate was high. Weekly data shows that the average utilization rate of caustic soda capacity was 85.9%, up 0.2% week-on-week. The inventory of sample enterprises with a fixed liquid caustic soda capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide was 541,100 tons (wet tons), up 2.45% week-on-week. Fundamentals remain largely unchanged; plant operating rate reductions are less than expected, and inventory remains high. Caustic soda futures are expected to experience increased volatility, with a slightly bearish outlook. (6) Methanol: Today's spot price in Taicang was 3305, down 73; the price in Inner Mongolia North Line was 2637.5, down 12.5. The domestic methanol market showed slight differences today. The main market remained firm and moved upwards, while the inland methanol market declined. Auction transactions at enterprises were acceptable, and the basis in the port methanol market remained firm in the morning, with generally average negotiated transactions. With no significant improvement in the situation in Iran, upstream production areas are not under significant pressure to ship goods. Coupled with the continued contraction of overseas supply in the Middle East and expectations of destocking, market prices have some support, and a slightly bullish outlook is expected in the short term.