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2026-04-14 21:01:14
[IMF's Three Scenarios for Middle East War: Baseline Global Growth 3.1%, Extreme Scenario Only 2.0%] ⑴ The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released three scenarios on Tuesday for global GDP growth in 2026 and 2027 under the backdrop of a Middle East war. The baseline reference forecast assumes a short-lived conflict and a relatively rapid decline in energy price volatility. ⑵ In the reference scenario, global GDP growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, with average annual oil prices of $82 and $75 respectively, and overall inflation rates of 4.4% and 3.7%. ⑶ In the adverse scenario, global GDP growth is projected to fall to 2.5% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, with average annual oil prices rising to $100 and $75 respectively, and inflation rates reaching 5.4% and 3.9%. ⑷ In the extreme scenario, global GDP growth is projected to be only 2.0% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, with average annual oil prices reaching $110 and $125 respectively, and inflation rates of 5.8% and 6.1% respectively.
