A stabilizing US dollar suppressed short-term rebounds, while silver maintained a slightly bullish trend supported by declining inflation expectations.
2026-04-15 17:07:32
Silver prices fluctuated and declined during Wednesday's European session, falling from around $81 to around $79.50 after encountering resistance. Overall, short-term rebound momentum has weakened, but the medium-term structure remains intact, and the market is in a phase of tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
From a fundamental perspective, the short-term stabilization of the US dollar is the main factor suppressing silver prices. After seven consecutive trading days of decline, the US dollar index rebounded slightly to around 98.10 . Although it is still close to the near seven-week low of 98.00 , the short-term stabilization is putting pressure on precious metals. Since silver is priced in US dollars, a stronger dollar usually reduces its attractiveness, thus suppressing prices.
However, silver's overall trend remains supported by the macroeconomic environment. Market expectations for a de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran continue to rise, with the US indicating a potential permanent ceasefire agreement in the near future. This expectation has pushed oil prices down, thus easing inflationary pressures previously stemming from rising energy prices. Against the backdrop of declining inflation expectations, market bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have clearly decreased.
Data shows that, based on market pricing tools, there is currently about a 65% probability that the Federal Reserve will not adjust interest rates this year. This expectation reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, thus providing support for silver.
Some market analysts point out that the current trend of silver is driven more by "changes in interest rate expectations" than by traditional safe-haven logic.
Logically, a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions usually weakens safe-haven demand, which is unfavorable for precious metals. However, in this round of market movements, its impact on oil prices has been more crucial. As oil prices have fallen and inflation expectations have stabilized again, this has actually been bullish for silver. This "indirect transmission mechanism" has led to a slightly different trend in silver's current price action compared to traditional logic.
From a market structure perspective, silver is currently under the dual pressure of "dollar suppression + interest rate support." On the one hand, the rebound of the dollar limits upside potential; on the other hand, declining interest rate expectations provide bottom support for prices.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, silver remains in an overall upward structure, with prices consistently trading above the 20-day moving average at $75.91 , indicating that the bullish trend has not yet been broken. However, the current price is trading within an ascending triangle pattern, with $81 acting as horizontal resistance, while the lower trendline is gradually rising, forming a converging structure. This typically suggests that the market is accumulating momentum, awaiting a breakout direction.
From the perspective of momentum indicators, the RSI remains oscillating in the 40-60 range , indicating that market volatility is converging and lacks trend momentum, which is consistent with the current oscillating pattern.
On the 4-hour chart, prices retreated after reaching $81, entering a short-term consolidation phase. If prices retrace to the $75.90-$76.00 area and find support, the bullish structure is likely to be maintained; however, key support lies near the trendline area around $74.50 , and a break below this level could trigger a deeper pullback. Conversely, if prices effectively break through the $81 resistance , upside potential could open up the $85 area . Overall, the short-term trend is one of consolidation, while the medium-term structure remains bullish.
Editor's Summary : Silver is currently in a key technical consolidation phase, with neither bullish nor bearish drivers dominating. The short-term rebound of the US dollar is putting downward pressure on prices, but declining inflation expectations and lower interest rate expectations are providing support. Technically, the ascending triangle pattern is gradually converging, and the market is awaiting a breakout signal. The key to future price movements lies in the effectiveness of the $81 resistance and $75 support levels; a breakout could trigger a directional move. Overall, short-term fluctuations are expected, but medium-term upside potential remains.
From a fundamental perspective, the short-term stabilization of the US dollar is the main factor suppressing silver prices. After seven consecutive trading days of decline, the US dollar index rebounded slightly to around 98.10 . Although it is still close to the near seven-week low of 98.00 , the short-term stabilization is putting pressure on precious metals. Since silver is priced in US dollars, a stronger dollar usually reduces its attractiveness, thus suppressing prices.
However, silver's overall trend remains supported by the macroeconomic environment. Market expectations for a de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran continue to rise, with the US indicating a potential permanent ceasefire agreement in the near future. This expectation has pushed oil prices down, thus easing inflationary pressures previously stemming from rising energy prices. Against the backdrop of declining inflation expectations, market bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have clearly decreased.
Data shows that, based on market pricing tools, there is currently about a 65% probability that the Federal Reserve will not adjust interest rates this year. This expectation reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, thus providing support for silver.
Some market analysts point out that the current trend of silver is driven more by "changes in interest rate expectations" than by traditional safe-haven logic.
Logically, a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions usually weakens safe-haven demand, which is unfavorable for precious metals. However, in this round of market movements, its impact on oil prices has been more crucial. As oil prices have fallen and inflation expectations have stabilized again, this has actually been bullish for silver. This "indirect transmission mechanism" has led to a slightly different trend in silver's current price action compared to traditional logic.
From a market structure perspective, silver is currently under the dual pressure of "dollar suppression + interest rate support." On the one hand, the rebound of the dollar limits upside potential; on the other hand, declining interest rate expectations provide bottom support for prices.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, silver remains in an overall upward structure, with prices consistently trading above the 20-day moving average at $75.91 , indicating that the bullish trend has not yet been broken. However, the current price is trading within an ascending triangle pattern, with $81 acting as horizontal resistance, while the lower trendline is gradually rising, forming a converging structure. This typically suggests that the market is accumulating momentum, awaiting a breakout direction.
From the perspective of momentum indicators, the RSI remains oscillating in the 40-60 range , indicating that market volatility is converging and lacks trend momentum, which is consistent with the current oscillating pattern.
On the 4-hour chart, prices retreated after reaching $81, entering a short-term consolidation phase. If prices retrace to the $75.90-$76.00 area and find support, the bullish structure is likely to be maintained; however, key support lies near the trendline area around $74.50 , and a break below this level could trigger a deeper pullback. Conversely, if prices effectively break through the $81 resistance , upside potential could open up the $85 area . Overall, the short-term trend is one of consolidation, while the medium-term structure remains bullish.
Editor's Summary : Silver is currently in a key technical consolidation phase, with neither bullish nor bearish drivers dominating. The short-term rebound of the US dollar is putting downward pressure on prices, but declining inflation expectations and lower interest rate expectations are providing support. Technically, the ascending triangle pattern is gradually converging, and the market is awaiting a breakout signal. The key to future price movements lies in the effectiveness of the $81 resistance and $75 support levels; a breakout could trigger a directional move. Overall, short-term fluctuations are expected, but medium-term upside potential remains.
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