With shipping in the Strait of Hormuz completely halted, major Asian economies have begun snapping up spot crude oil at any cost to make up for the supply gap caused by the disruption of energy transport routes.

Currently, global seaborne crude oil supply remains relatively stable, with core supply sources concentrated in Russian and Iranian crude oil, which are subject to international sanctions. These two sources have effectively buffered energy shocks and slowed the runaway surge in oil prices. However, reserves of these special sources are limited and lack long-term safety net capabilities. Once existing reserves are gradually depleted, the hidden risks in the energy market will quickly become apparent, and a new round of widespread supply shocks is rapidly approaching.

Following the US and Israel's military strikes on the Strait of Hormuz on February 28th of this year, Iran immediately announced the closure of all shipping lanes in the strait. The closure of the waterway completely disrupted international oil tanker traffic, resulting in fragmented and unstable shipping schedules, directly pushing international oil prices above $100 per barrel. Meanwhile, progress in regional ceasefire negotiations and peace agreement consultations largely suppressed the upward potential of oil prices, preventing a complete short-term loss of control in the energy market. However, the continued deterioration of regional energy fundamentals and the exacerbation of the supply-demand imbalance further stimulated a surge in global demand for crude oil and natural gas.

Asian countries show clear divergences, with weaker economies bearing the brunt of the pressure first.

Amid the energy crisis, the resilience of Asian countries has diverged significantly, with developing countries in Asia, particularly those with weaker economies, being the first to find themselves in a passive position. Limited by insufficient fiscal resources, these countries have long been unable to establish large-scale strategic oil reserve systems, and now, facing a sudden energy crisis, they lack the reserves to deploy in emergencies. Currently, several Southeast Asian countries have implemented energy control policies, with the Philippines officially declaring a national energy emergency and implementing various cost-saving measures to alleviate energy shortages.

Among the many energy-importing countries in Asia, major Asian powers and Japan have particularly prominent advantages in resisting risks.

Over the past year, major Asian countries have steadily expanded their strategic oil reserves, consistently purchasing Russian and Iranian crude oil, which offer price advantages. Compared to the Brent crude benchmark price, sanctioned crude oil has a significant discount. Ample reserves mean that the country does not need to passively seek alternative sources at high prices in the short term, greatly improving the stability of its energy supply.

Japan suffers from severe energy scarcity and has long relied heavily on imports, thus establishing a world-leading oil reserve system. The Japanese authorities swiftly introduced a reserve release plan while simultaneously signaling their willingness to share energy reserves with neighboring countries to prevent a regional economic collapse.

The lack of alternative supply and the escalation of sanctions have exacerbated market contradictions.

To alleviate the Middle East oil supply crisis, US crude oil has become a key alternative source considered by many countries. US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum stated that economies such as Japan and South Korea have clearly indicated their plans to increase their purchases of US crude oil to fill the supply gap in the Middle East. However, US crude oil production capacity has a significant ceiling and cannot fully cover the huge shortfall caused by Middle East production cuts. Furthermore, the equipment at Asian refineries is not compatible with the specifications of US light crude oil, making it difficult to fully implement alternative solutions.

Previously, to alleviate global energy tensions, the United States temporarily eased some energy sanctions, promoting the concentrated trading of sanctioned crude oil in the market and briefly improving the supply situation. However, due to the limited total amount of crude oil and the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz, daily crude oil production in the Middle East has decreased significantly, and the scale of production cuts is still trending towards expansion. Subsequently, the United States adjusted its sanctions policy, retaining only sanctions exemptions for Russian crude oil and ending preferential treatment for Iranian crude oil, further disrupting the energy procurement layout in Asia. The Indian market is about to see a sharp rise in fuel prices, and even though a long-term gas and oil supply agreement has been reached with Iran, frequent attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to hinder the normal delivery of goods.

Low inventories coupled with geopolitical stalemate are putting pressure on the global economy.

Faced with upward pressure from imported inflation, South Korean authorities have finalized a relief package exceeding $17 billion to help individuals and businesses withstand the impact of rising energy prices. While the Asian power has repeatedly called for the restoration of normal shipping order in the Strait of Hormuz, no substantial progress has been made so far. However, the country's energy resilience is ensured by its crude oil reserves exceeding one billion barrels.

Goldman Sachs points out that global crude oil inventories continue to decline and are about to reach historic lows. This inventory shortage will further amplify oil price volatility and continue to increase pressure on the global economy. The geopolitical standoff in the Middle East has not eased, and there is no clear timetable for ending the conflict, forcing a prolonged period for the full recovery of Middle Eastern crude oil production capacity.

Overall , the current energy crisis has a global impact, with high oil prices creating a chain reaction along the industrial chain, impacting the production of various chemical raw materials and manufacturing industries. In the long term, the high energy price situation may continue to suppress global economic growth, while also having a sustained negative impact on people's livelihoods, consumption, and industrial development.