The situation in the Middle East is on the verge of spiraling out of control: a key figure in the Iranian negotiations has left the scene, and Israel has issued threats.
2026-04-24 01:57:54
On April 23, a new development emerged in the previously stalled situation between the US and Iran, potentially worsening the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Israel continued to send strong signals of military action against Iran, with the Revolutionary Guard taking the lead in the confrontation. The US wavered between war and peace, and conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy route, was on the verge of erupting. Amidst this complex interplay of factors, the fragile ceasefire agreement teetered on the brink of collapse.
Key figures in Iran's negotiating camp have withdrawn, and the Revolutionary Guard is taking the lead in adopting a hardline approach.
According to Israeli news outlet N12, Iranian parliamentary spokesman Ghalibaf has officially withdrawn from the Tehran negotiating team, marking a key shift in Iran's negotiating stance with the United States.
Ghalibaf recently stated publicly that "in Iran, there are no radicals or moderates; everyone is an 'Iranian' and a 'revolutionary,'" directly pointing to the disintegration of traditional reformists and moderates within Iran. According to sources, Ghalibaf was forced to resign from his negotiating post due to the direct intervention of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, signifying the complete marginalization of forces within Iran advocating for crisis mitigation through diplomatic mediation.
Meanwhile, Iranian news agency Noor reported that air defense systems had been activated in parts of Tehran, though the reason was not disclosed. Combined with the departure of key figures from the negotiating team and the strong leadership of the Revolutionary Guard, Iran is completing a comprehensive "wartime" internal integration, completely abandoning any illusions of compromise with the US, and making all-round preparations to cope with external military strikes.
Israel issues ultimate threat: awaiting US "green light," aiming to destroy Iran's economic foundation.
Israel's ambitions for military action against Iran are now completely undisguised, and Defense Minister Israel Katz's remarks have escalated the confrontation to a new level.
On April 24, Katz issued a recorded statement after completing a situation assessment with senior officials at military headquarters in Tel Aviv, clearly stating that Israel was ready to escalate military action against Iran and was awaiting US approval. His remarks were highly provocative, declaring that "the primary task is to completely end the Khamenei dynasty and, by bombing its main energy and power facilities and destroying the country's economic infrastructure, to send Iran back to the Dark Ages and the Stone Age, which will cause its foundations to crumble."
In fact, Israel's military preparations had already begun. When the US and Iran announced a ceasefire on April 8, Israeli military spokesman Effie Defflin declared that Israel had achieved, or even exceeded, all its objectives in Iran; he also issued a strong statement that if Iran launched an attack in response to Israel's actions in Lebanon, Israel would retaliate forcefully. Currently, the Israel Defense Forces have completed their defensive and offensive deployments, and all targets have been marked, awaiting only US approval.
The United States is caught in a strategic dilemma: it has no intention of starting a war, but negotiations are stalled.
As a key third party in the Middle East situation, the United States' attitude directly determines the course of the conflict, and the Trump administration is currently caught in a dilemma between "avoiding war" and "being forced to participate in war".
Israel's Channel 12, citing US officials, reported that Trump is not in a hurry to reignite the war, but "may have no other choice." This statement precisely exposes the strategic predicament of the United States: on the one hand, the US seeks to re-engage with Iran and reach an agreement to stabilize the situation in the Middle East and avoid getting bogged down in a protracted war; on the other hand, the dominance of hardliners within Iran and continued pressure from Israel have left the US with "no one to talk to," and the diplomatic solution is almost completely cut off.
Previously, the US had pushed for a ceasefire with Iran, attempting to exchange a "delay in strikes" for Iran's opening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, friction continued between the two sides during the ceasefire agreement's validity. Although a US delegation has arrived in Pakistan to prepare for a new round of talks on the Iranian issue, Iran has refused to participate in insincere negotiations, effectively closing the window for US-Iran dialogue. The Trump administration has been unable to persuade Israel to abandon military action, nor has it been able to force Iran to compromise or back down, resulting in a continuous shrinking of its strategic room for maneuver.
Strait of Hormuz becomes the front line of conflict: Iran on high alert
As the world's energy "main artery," the Strait of Hormuz carries nearly one-third of the world's oil shipments and has now become the front line of the confrontation between the United States and Iran, with the situation extremely dangerous.
On April 23, Iranian Justice Chief Justice Ejai declared forcefully that "the United States dares not approach the Strait of Hormuz," and that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' "swarm" fleet was on high alert, ready to destroy US defenses with a "saturation" attack. He added that the strength displayed by the Iranian armed forces in the strait was a source of pride, having previously seized three vessels for violations, and that two advanced US destroyers had been forced to retreat after approaching.
Iran's Press TV reported on the 12th that the US Navy destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy were targeted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy when attempting to enter the Persian Gulf. The US ships were forced to retreat "minutes away from being completely destroyed." Although the US Central Command claimed that the two destroyers successfully transited the strait and created conditions for minesweeping, Iran's military intimidation has forced the US to act with extreme caution, and the risk to navigation in the strait has increased dramatically.
Energy markets experience dramatic volatility: Tensions push up oil prices
The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have directly impacted the global energy market, with international oil prices rising as the conflict escalates, making it a direct "barometer" of geopolitical risks.
The strait's restricted navigation and the escalating regional military conflict have directly triggered strong market concerns about potential oil supply disruptions. Currently, Brent crude futures prices have surged from around $80 per barrel before the conflict to over $95 per barrel. If the strait blockade continues or military conflict erupts, oil prices are highly likely to break through $110 per barrel, and could even reach a high of $150 per barrel.
Soaring energy prices will directly impact the global economy, exacerbate inflationary pressures, and increase production costs for businesses and the burden on residents. For regions such as Asia and Europe that are highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil imports, tight energy supplies and high prices will become significant factors constraining economic recovery, and the uncertainty facing the global economy will continue to increase.
Currently, the situation in the Middle East has reached a critical point: hardliners have gained full control within Iran, Israel is poised for action, the United States is caught in a dilemma, the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is escalating, and oil prices continue to soar. Amidst this complex interplay, any unexpected friction could ignite a full-blown war. Once war breaks out, it will not only destroy the Iranian economy but also trigger a global energy crisis and disrupt the world economic order.
At 01:51 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was trading at $97.58 per barrel, up 4.97%. Brent crude oil was trading at $106.42 per barrel, up 4.58%.
Key figures in Iran's negotiating camp have withdrawn, and the Revolutionary Guard is taking the lead in adopting a hardline approach.
According to Israeli news outlet N12, Iranian parliamentary spokesman Ghalibaf has officially withdrawn from the Tehran negotiating team, marking a key shift in Iran's negotiating stance with the United States.
Ghalibaf recently stated publicly that "in Iran, there are no radicals or moderates; everyone is an 'Iranian' and a 'revolutionary,'" directly pointing to the disintegration of traditional reformists and moderates within Iran. According to sources, Ghalibaf was forced to resign from his negotiating post due to the direct intervention of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, signifying the complete marginalization of forces within Iran advocating for crisis mitigation through diplomatic mediation.
Meanwhile, Iranian news agency Noor reported that air defense systems had been activated in parts of Tehran, though the reason was not disclosed. Combined with the departure of key figures from the negotiating team and the strong leadership of the Revolutionary Guard, Iran is completing a comprehensive "wartime" internal integration, completely abandoning any illusions of compromise with the US, and making all-round preparations to cope with external military strikes.
Israel issues ultimate threat: awaiting US "green light," aiming to destroy Iran's economic foundation.
Israel's ambitions for military action against Iran are now completely undisguised, and Defense Minister Israel Katz's remarks have escalated the confrontation to a new level.
On April 24, Katz issued a recorded statement after completing a situation assessment with senior officials at military headquarters in Tel Aviv, clearly stating that Israel was ready to escalate military action against Iran and was awaiting US approval. His remarks were highly provocative, declaring that "the primary task is to completely end the Khamenei dynasty and, by bombing its main energy and power facilities and destroying the country's economic infrastructure, to send Iran back to the Dark Ages and the Stone Age, which will cause its foundations to crumble."
In fact, Israel's military preparations had already begun. When the US and Iran announced a ceasefire on April 8, Israeli military spokesman Effie Defflin declared that Israel had achieved, or even exceeded, all its objectives in Iran; he also issued a strong statement that if Iran launched an attack in response to Israel's actions in Lebanon, Israel would retaliate forcefully. Currently, the Israel Defense Forces have completed their defensive and offensive deployments, and all targets have been marked, awaiting only US approval.
The United States is caught in a strategic dilemma: it has no intention of starting a war, but negotiations are stalled.
As a key third party in the Middle East situation, the United States' attitude directly determines the course of the conflict, and the Trump administration is currently caught in a dilemma between "avoiding war" and "being forced to participate in war".
Israel's Channel 12, citing US officials, reported that Trump is not in a hurry to reignite the war, but "may have no other choice." This statement precisely exposes the strategic predicament of the United States: on the one hand, the US seeks to re-engage with Iran and reach an agreement to stabilize the situation in the Middle East and avoid getting bogged down in a protracted war; on the other hand, the dominance of hardliners within Iran and continued pressure from Israel have left the US with "no one to talk to," and the diplomatic solution is almost completely cut off.
Previously, the US had pushed for a ceasefire with Iran, attempting to exchange a "delay in strikes" for Iran's opening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, friction continued between the two sides during the ceasefire agreement's validity. Although a US delegation has arrived in Pakistan to prepare for a new round of talks on the Iranian issue, Iran has refused to participate in insincere negotiations, effectively closing the window for US-Iran dialogue. The Trump administration has been unable to persuade Israel to abandon military action, nor has it been able to force Iran to compromise or back down, resulting in a continuous shrinking of its strategic room for maneuver.
Strait of Hormuz becomes the front line of conflict: Iran on high alert
As the world's energy "main artery," the Strait of Hormuz carries nearly one-third of the world's oil shipments and has now become the front line of the confrontation between the United States and Iran, with the situation extremely dangerous.
On April 23, Iranian Justice Chief Justice Ejai declared forcefully that "the United States dares not approach the Strait of Hormuz," and that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' "swarm" fleet was on high alert, ready to destroy US defenses with a "saturation" attack. He added that the strength displayed by the Iranian armed forces in the strait was a source of pride, having previously seized three vessels for violations, and that two advanced US destroyers had been forced to retreat after approaching.
Iran's Press TV reported on the 12th that the US Navy destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy were targeted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy when attempting to enter the Persian Gulf. The US ships were forced to retreat "minutes away from being completely destroyed." Although the US Central Command claimed that the two destroyers successfully transited the strait and created conditions for minesweeping, Iran's military intimidation has forced the US to act with extreme caution, and the risk to navigation in the strait has increased dramatically.
Energy markets experience dramatic volatility: Tensions push up oil prices
The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have directly impacted the global energy market, with international oil prices rising as the conflict escalates, making it a direct "barometer" of geopolitical risks.
The strait's restricted navigation and the escalating regional military conflict have directly triggered strong market concerns about potential oil supply disruptions. Currently, Brent crude futures prices have surged from around $80 per barrel before the conflict to over $95 per barrel. If the strait blockade continues or military conflict erupts, oil prices are highly likely to break through $110 per barrel, and could even reach a high of $150 per barrel.
Soaring energy prices will directly impact the global economy, exacerbate inflationary pressures, and increase production costs for businesses and the burden on residents. For regions such as Asia and Europe that are highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil imports, tight energy supplies and high prices will become significant factors constraining economic recovery, and the uncertainty facing the global economy will continue to increase.
Currently, the situation in the Middle East has reached a critical point: hardliners have gained full control within Iran, Israel is poised for action, the United States is caught in a dilemma, the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is escalating, and oil prices continue to soar. Amidst this complex interplay, any unexpected friction could ignite a full-blown war. Once war breaks out, it will not only destroy the Iranian economy but also trigger a global energy crisis and disrupt the world economic order.
At 01:51 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was trading at $97.58 per barrel, up 4.97%. Brent crude oil was trading at $106.42 per barrel, up 4.58%.
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