Silver prices traded with a slight downward bias during Friday's Asian session, hovering around $75, near recent lows. Overall market sentiment was cautious, and price action indicated a significant lack of upward momentum in the short term. In the current macroeconomic environment, silver's price movements are more influenced by both energy prices and interest rate expectations.

The ongoing tensions in the Middle East pose a risk of supply disruptions to the global energy market, particularly the restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which directly impacts global energy transportation. This passage carries approximately 20% of global energy shipments, and its obstruction has significantly pushed up oil prices. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices remain around $96, a one-week high, indicating that market pricing in tight supply conditions continues.

Rising oil prices are putting downward pressure on silver through inflation. Increased energy prices are pushing up overall price levels, strengthening market expectations of a global inflation rebound. Against this backdrop, central banks are more inclined to maintain a tight or neutral-to-tight policy stance, thus reducing the attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets. As a typical non-yielding asset, silver faces capital outflow pressure in a high-interest-rate environment, which is a significant reason for its recent price weakness.

From a policy perspective, the market is closely watching the moves of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. Currently, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range and continue to emphasize its vigilance regarding upside risks to inflation. This policy expectation reinforces the market consensus of maintaining high interest rates, thus putting sustained pressure on silver prices.

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, silver has broken below the key support of an ascending triangle pattern, indicating that the previous bullish structure has been disrupted and the trend has turned bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 45, below the midline but not yet in oversold territory, suggesting that downward momentum still has room to dissipate. The current key support level is at $72.61; a break below this level could lead to a further decline to the $68.28 area. On the upside, the first resistance level to watch is $79.30, which is the previous trendline resistance; failure to break through this level would limit the upside potential. Further resistance lies around $83.35.

Overall, the short-term trend of silver is still dominated by macroeconomic factors, especially the linkage between oil prices and interest rate expectations. Before inflation and tightening expectations ease significantly, prices may maintain a weak and volatile pattern.

Editor's Summary : The silver market is currently in a typical macro-driven phase. Rising oil prices and inflationary pressures, coupled with a high-interest-rate environment, are exerting downward pressure on precious metals as a whole. Technical breakdowns have further strengthened bearish sentiment, indicating a weak short-term trend. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, if geopolitical risks escalate further or monetary policy shifts, silver still has the potential for a rebound. Investors should pay close attention to changes in the energy market and central bank policy signals to grasp price movements.