The comprehensive US-Iran rivalry and the Islamabad talks have solved the mystery of stagnant gold prices.
2026-04-24 21:45:15
On Friday (April 24), during the Asian and European sessions, spot gold experienced a surge followed by a pullback and then a rebound. Israel and the United States conveyed narratives of internal divisions within Iran and the resignation of the foreign minister from the negotiating team. Iran quickly denied these rumors, boosting gold prices at the open. Later, the escalation of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and market concerns about inflation caused gold to retreat again. Then, in the evening, renewed news of weekend peace talks led to another rebound in gold prices.
Spot gold is currently trading around 4715, up slightly by 0.09%. Although negotiations may be finalized, the current situation remains very tense.
Currently, the world's attention is focused on Pakistan.
Diplomatic Updates: A high-level delegation led by Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad on the evening of April 24.
Although Iranian state media claimed the trip was "not a direct meeting" in an effort to maintain dignity, multiple sources confirmed that it was actually paving the way for a second round of secret negotiations between the US and Iran.
Atmosphere of peace talks: Under the mediation of Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Dar, both sides are trying to find a temporary "ceasefire fulcrum" amid the "smelling of gunpowder".
For Iran, this is a chance to catch its breath; for the United States, it is an opportunity to reveal its hand.
Just as diplomats were preparing to shake hands, U.S. Defense Secretary Hagersese sent the strongest possible signal at the Pentagon:
Absolute no-navigation order: Hagers announced that no Iranian vessel may cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission from the U.S. Navy.
He even went so far as to seize two “shadow fleet” ships in the Indo-Pacific region to demonstrate that the US blockade was no longer limited to the Middle East, but was a global effort.
Meanwhile, the statement claims an increase in military force: the second aircraft carrier is about to be ready, which is not only a military deployment but also psychological torture.
Hagers made it clear: "The blockade will continue until the goal is achieved." He wanted Iran to understand that every minute at the negotiating table was being drained of its national strength by this "ironclad" blockade.
The Trump administration may demonstrate tactical coordination in this round of power struggles:
Hagers (black face): In charge of "intimidation". He used the aesthetics of violence to draw a line, making Iran feel a sense of existential crisis and shattering its strategic illusions.
Vance (red face): Responsible for "inducement". Vance, in his capacity as vice president, released a signal of "unwillingness to get involved in war", providing Iran with a "diplomatic window" to breathe.
Trump (the mastermind behind the scenes): He wants the “greatest deal in history” as a political achievement, while also using the tough stance of Hagers to send a message to allies (Eurasia): security is not free, you must participate in the blockade, or don’t expect American protection.
However, it's hard to say whether it will be effective against the mysterious Persian people.
Despite the powerful rhetoric of the Hedges movement, deep divisions and fears exist within the US government:
"Reagan's Shadow": Trump is well aware that with the election approaching, he cannot afford the political cost of U.S. military pilots being captured or aircraft carriers being damaged. Reagan suffered greatly from his handling of hostage issues.
Strategic Extrication: Trump's initial intention was to extricate the United States from the quagmire in the Middle East, not to start World War III.
Hagers's relentless pressure was essentially an attempt to use "one-off, extremely high pressure" to obtain an agreement that would allow the United States to withdraw.
Life or death vs. political achievements: For Iran, this is a battle for survival, and they have great patience to engage in a "long-term confrontation".
For Trump, this is a bargaining chip in the election campaign. His window of opportunity is actually very tight. This unequal patience indicates that the United States will not be able to achieve a quick victory in negotiations without making sufficient concessions.
This back-and-forth "fighting while negotiating" situation has brought continuous inflationary pressure to the world.
While gold is currently performing strongly due to "optimistic expectations" of peace talks, under the extreme military adventurism of Hagersey, market optimism could quickly reverse if negotiations stall or friction arises.
Although gold has strengthened, its upside potential has been partially exhausted by the extremely high geopolitical uncertainty in the absence of a substantial ceasefire agreement.
The market is increasingly realizing that whether or not to negotiate, when to negotiate, and whether or not to close or open the strait can all be changed overnight. However, the only things that will not change are the ever-rising oil prices and the reality of further global inflation. When the inflation outlook changes fundamentally, it will ruthlessly suppress the rebound of gold.
From a technical perspective, spot gold has returned to the lower channel line. Touching the lower channel line three times in a row is not a good sign. If it cannot rise quickly tonight, the lower channel line will definitely be broken. The current support is at the 4500 psychological level, and the resistance level is around 4750.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: EasyForex subsidiary)
At 21:41 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,706 per ounce.
This iron-fisted logic stems from Hergé's life, which is marked by stark "class contrasts."
Although he graduated from Princeton and Harvard, two top Ivy League schools, he openly opposed what he saw as "hypocritical elitism" as the editor of a conservative publication during his student days.
This experience of "growing up in the enemy camp" made him extremely averse to the diplomatic rhetoric of the establishment.
His subsequent career completely shaped him into a "trench fighter": he served in Guantanamo, Iraq and Afghanistan, and behind his two bronze star medals was his extreme anger at the U.S. military being constrained by "political correctness".
During his ten years as a host on Fox News, he learned to deconstruct complex military stalemates using the most straightforward television narratives.
It is this combination of "Ivy League brain, veteran's courage, and media personality's mouth" that has led to his current "bulldozer-like" governing style.
The reason he supported Vance's negotiations while he himself imposed a blockade on the Persian Gulf was because he fundamentally believed that so-called "diplomacy" was merely a way out for the weak, and that true order existed only within the range of naval gunfire.
He wasn't dealing with diplomacy; he was attempting to completely shatter Iran's strategic resolve with a "globally televised blockade."
Spot gold is currently trading around 4715, up slightly by 0.09%. Although negotiations may be finalized, the current situation remains very tense.
A tentative probe before dawn: A "weekend appointment" in Islamabad.
Currently, the world's attention is focused on Pakistan.
Diplomatic Updates: A high-level delegation led by Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad on the evening of April 24.
Although Iranian state media claimed the trip was "not a direct meeting" in an effort to maintain dignity, multiple sources confirmed that it was actually paving the way for a second round of secret negotiations between the US and Iran.
Atmosphere of peace talks: Under the mediation of Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Dar, both sides are trying to find a temporary "ceasefire fulcrum" amid the "smelling of gunpowder".
For Iran, this is a chance to catch its breath; for the United States, it is an opportunity to reveal its hand.
Hedges' Roar: The "Iron Barrel Blockade" of Globalization
Just as diplomats were preparing to shake hands, U.S. Defense Secretary Hagersese sent the strongest possible signal at the Pentagon:
Absolute no-navigation order: Hagers announced that no Iranian vessel may cross the Strait of Hormuz without permission from the U.S. Navy.
He even went so far as to seize two “shadow fleet” ships in the Indo-Pacific region to demonstrate that the US blockade was no longer limited to the Middle East, but was a global effort.
Meanwhile, the statement claims an increase in military force: the second aircraft carrier is about to be ready, which is not only a military deployment but also psychological torture.
Hagers made it clear: "The blockade will continue until the goal is achieved." He wanted Iran to understand that every minute at the negotiating table was being drained of its national strength by this "ironclad" blockade.
The Power Triangle: Trump, Vance, and Hagersese – The "Good Cop, Bad Cop" Role
The Trump administration may demonstrate tactical coordination in this round of power struggles:
Hagers (black face): In charge of "intimidation". He used the aesthetics of violence to draw a line, making Iran feel a sense of existential crisis and shattering its strategic illusions.
Vance (red face): Responsible for "inducement". Vance, in his capacity as vice president, released a signal of "unwillingness to get involved in war", providing Iran with a "diplomatic window" to breathe.
Trump (the mastermind behind the scenes): He wants the “greatest deal in history” as a political achievement, while also using the tough stance of Hagers to send a message to allies (Eurasia): security is not free, you must participate in the blockade, or don’t expect American protection.
However, it's hard to say whether it will be effective against the mysterious Persian people.
America's dilemma: It wants to deter, but fears "breaking its wings."
Despite the powerful rhetoric of the Hedges movement, deep divisions and fears exist within the US government:
"Reagan's Shadow": Trump is well aware that with the election approaching, he cannot afford the political cost of U.S. military pilots being captured or aircraft carriers being damaged. Reagan suffered greatly from his handling of hostage issues.
Strategic Extrication: Trump's initial intention was to extricate the United States from the quagmire in the Middle East, not to start World War III.
Hagers's relentless pressure was essentially an attempt to use "one-off, extremely high pressure" to obtain an agreement that would allow the United States to withdraw.
A battle of strategic patience: The game between gold and inflation
Life or death vs. political achievements: For Iran, this is a battle for survival, and they have great patience to engage in a "long-term confrontation".
For Trump, this is a bargaining chip in the election campaign. His window of opportunity is actually very tight. This unequal patience indicates that the United States will not be able to achieve a quick victory in negotiations without making sufficient concessions.
Summary and Technical Analysis:
This back-and-forth "fighting while negotiating" situation has brought continuous inflationary pressure to the world.
While gold is currently performing strongly due to "optimistic expectations" of peace talks, under the extreme military adventurism of Hagersey, market optimism could quickly reverse if negotiations stall or friction arises.
Although gold has strengthened, its upside potential has been partially exhausted by the extremely high geopolitical uncertainty in the absence of a substantial ceasefire agreement.
The market is increasingly realizing that whether or not to negotiate, when to negotiate, and whether or not to close or open the strait can all be changed overnight. However, the only things that will not change are the ever-rising oil prices and the reality of further global inflation. When the inflation outlook changes fundamentally, it will ruthlessly suppress the rebound of gold.
From a technical perspective, spot gold has returned to the lower channel line. Touching the lower channel line three times in a row is not a good sign. If it cannot rise quickly tonight, the lower channel line will definitely be broken. The current support is at the 4500 psychological level, and the resistance level is around 4750.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: EasyForex subsidiary)
At 21:41 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,706 per ounce.
Appendix: Biography of Hercules, and the reasons for his Rayleigh-like style of work:
This iron-fisted logic stems from Hergé's life, which is marked by stark "class contrasts."
Although he graduated from Princeton and Harvard, two top Ivy League schools, he openly opposed what he saw as "hypocritical elitism" as the editor of a conservative publication during his student days.
This experience of "growing up in the enemy camp" made him extremely averse to the diplomatic rhetoric of the establishment.
His subsequent career completely shaped him into a "trench fighter": he served in Guantanamo, Iraq and Afghanistan, and behind his two bronze star medals was his extreme anger at the U.S. military being constrained by "political correctness".
During his ten years as a host on Fox News, he learned to deconstruct complex military stalemates using the most straightforward television narratives.
It is this combination of "Ivy League brain, veteran's courage, and media personality's mouth" that has led to his current "bulldozer-like" governing style.
The reason he supported Vance's negotiations while he himself imposed a blockade on the Persian Gulf was because he fundamentally believed that so-called "diplomacy" was merely a way out for the weak, and that true order existed only within the range of naval gunfire.
He wasn't dealing with diplomacy; he was attempting to completely shatter Iran's strategic resolve with a "globally televised blockade."
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