April 27th Financial Breakfast: Iran's stance is tougher than in the first round of negotiations; the probability of a Fed rate hike this year is rising; gold prices test the $4650 mark; oil prices rise nearly 2%.
2026-04-27 07:11:38
On Monday (April 27, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold opened lower below $4,700 per ounce and may test the $4,650 per ounce level during the day, as Iran's stance became tougher than in the first round of negotiations, stating that it would not accept negotiations under pressure or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 100%, and the probability of a rate hike this year has increased. US crude oil rose nearly 2%, trading around $96.15 per barrel. US media reported that Israel is turning southern Lebanon into Gaza, and the chairman of the US Senate Armed Services Committee called for the termination of negotiations with Iran and the resumption of military strikes.
U.S. stocks, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, closed at record highs on Friday, boosted by optimism about potential peace talks between the U.S. and Iran and a surge in technology stocks such as Intel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16% to close at 49,230.71; the S&P 500 rose 0.80% to close at 7,165.08; and the Nasdaq rose 1.63% to close at 24,836.60. For the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.55% and 1.5% respectively, marking their fourth consecutive week of gains, while the Dow fell 0.44%.
Intel surged 23.65% to a record $82.57 after its second-quarter revenue outlook beat expectations, pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up for the 18th consecutive trading day. AMD and Arm both jumped about 14%, while Nvidia rose 4.32%, bringing its market capitalization close to $5 trillion.
Market focus is shifting to this week's Federal Reserve meeting, with traders currently pricing in a 39% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in December. A strong earnings season has also supported the market, with first-quarter earnings growth expectations revised upward to 16.1%. On both the NYSE and Nasdaq, advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks, while trading volume was slightly below the 20-day average.
Gold prices rose on Friday, with spot gold closing at $4,721.15 per ounce, up 0.6%, but still down more than 2% for the week, recording its first weekly decline in five weeks, as persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran situation kept markets on edge. US gold futures for June delivery rose 0.4% to settle at $4,740.90. Gold demand remained under pressure in March due to the US-Iran conflict boosting the dollar and inflation concerns; despite recent reductions in military strikes, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and investors are primarily driven by news headlines.
According to Pakistani government sources, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi arrived in Islamabad to discuss restarting peace talks, but will not meet with US negotiators; meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire agreement for three weeks.
A senior strategist at RJO Futures stated that the market currently views the prospect of a peace agreement as a net positive, and oil prices have also retreated. Last week, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose 1.5%, and the dollar saw its first weekly gain in three weeks, both increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
In other precious metals, spot silver rose 1.4% to $76.49, platinum rose 0.5% to $2015.98, and palladium rose 2.2% to $1499.75.
Oil prices closed mixed on Friday amid wild swings, with Brent crude futures rising 0.3% to $105.33 a barrel and WTI crude futures falling 1.5% to $94.40 a barrel. However, both benchmark contracts recorded significant gains last week due to concerns about supply disruptions, with Brent crude rising about 16% and WTI crude rising nearly 13%. Oil brokers said traders were rushing to close out long positions before an unusually unpredictable weekend and would readjust their positions based on how the situation develops.
According to The Wall Street Journal, a senior Iranian diplomat said that Iran is open to negotiations with the United States but will not abandon its uranium enrichment activities. A Pakistani official source said on the 25th that Iran has adopted a tougher stance compared to the first round of negotiations, emphasizing that any solution to end the war must be implemented on Iran's terms, not those proposed by US President Trump.
The dollar index fell 0.28% to 98.55 on Friday, influenced by the U.S. Department of Justice ending its investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, clearing the way for the more dovish Walsh to become the new Fed chairman, and market optimism about the prospects for U.S.-Iran peace talks.
The euro rose 0.27% against the dollar to $1.1714, while the dollar fell 0.21% against the yen to 159.40 yen. Federal funds futures traders raised their estimate of the probability of a rate cut before the end of the year from 23% to 38%. Iran's foreign minister arrived in Pakistan to discuss restarting peace talks, but details of the meeting remained unclear, keeping traders cautious.
Market focus is shifting to a divergence in global central bank policies: the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, the European Central Bank is expected to hold rates steady on April 30, but more than half of economists predict a rate hike in June, the Bank of England may keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, but the market has already priced in a rate hike before the end of the year, and the Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Tuesday, but may signal its readiness to tighten policy.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 100%, while the probability of a rate hike this year has slightly increased.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by June is 4.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95.3%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by December is 27.4% (34.4% last Friday), the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 64.4%, and the probability of raising rates by a cumulative 25 basis points is 8.2% (0.7% last Friday).
Iranian President: Will not accept negotiations under pressure or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
According to Iran's Press TV, Iranian President Pezechzian stated in a phone call with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif that Tehran will not participate in peace talks under pressure, threats, or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Pezechzian reiterated that Iran rejects joining negotiations under blockade or pressure. He suggested that the US remove all obstacles to resuming dialogue, including lifting the blockade of the Strait.
Iranian Deputy Speaker: Mojtaba orders the Strait of Hormuz not to return to pre-war status quo.
According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency on the 26th, Iranian Parliament Deputy Speaker Nikozadeh stated that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has explicitly ordered that the Strait of Hormuz must not return to its pre-war state. (Xinhua)
Iran claims to have successfully destroyed three US Massive Ordnance Penetrators.
On April 26 local time, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that its special forces had successfully destroyed three US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs and dismantled another one left in Iran's Zanjan province. The GBU-57 is a heavy bunker buster bomb developed by the United States. The US used this type of bomb in its military operation against Iranian nuclear facilities last year, and it has also been used extensively in the US-Iran conflict this year. (CCTV)
US media reports that Israel is turning southern Lebanon into Gaza.
According to US media reports on April 24, satellite images and videos show that Israel is carrying out systematic destruction in southern Lebanon, similar to its previous actions in the Gaza Strip. The reports state that Israel is not only causing large-scale damage to civilian infrastructure in southern Lebanon, but also imitating the "Gaza model" by establishing a so-called "yellow line" in Lebanon, where locals attempting to cross it to return home are shot dead. US media claims that Israel is "Gaza-izing" southern Lebanon. (CCTV International News)
Iran says it is open to negotiations with the US, but insists on its right to enrich uranium.
According to The Wall Street Journal, a senior Iranian diplomat stated that Iran is open to negotiations with the United States but will not abandon its uranium enrichment program. Iranian Ambassador to India, Mohammad Fatali, stated on social media, "Negotiations can only yield appropriate results when our adversaries recognize our right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy." The report notes that the United States is currently seeking a 20-year suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment program.
Sources: Iran's stance is tougher than during the first round of negotiations.
Pakistani official sources said on the 25th that Iran adopted a tougher stance compared to the first round of negotiations, emphasizing that any solution to ending the war must be implemented according to Iran's conditions, not those proposed by US President Trump. (Xinhua)
Following the security incident, Trump held a press conference to discuss the White House banquet hall construction project.
On the evening of the 25th local time, due to a security incident at the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner, US President Trump, his wife Melania, and a number of senior US officials attending the event were evacuated from the venue. Shortly after the incident, President Trump held a press conference in the White House Press Briefing Room. In addition to reporting some details about the security incident, Trump also linked the incident to the ongoing White House banquet hall project and emphasized the need for "an unprecedented level of security." Trump stated at the press conference that a man armed with multiple weapons attempted to force his way through security checkpoints that evening and was subsequently subdued by several Secret Service agents. One Secret Service agent was shot but survived because he was wearing a bulletproof vest. Prior to the press conference, Trump posted a photo on social media showing a man lying on the floor of the Washington Hilton Hotel. The man appeared to be the suspect. Trump also posted surveillance footage showing a man running through the Washington Hilton Hotel's security checkpoint. In the video, security personnel drew their guns and appeared to begin firing. At the press conference, Trump stated that he released the surveillance footage to "increase transparency" and demonstrate the speed of the security personnel's response to the gunman. Trump also addressed the White House banquet hall construction project. He stated that they reviewed the specific circumstances of the incident that night and that the building was not particularly robust in terms of security. Trump said he was reluctant to mention this, but it was precisely why they had to implement all the previously planned security upgrades at the White House. Trump stated that the White House banquet hall is much more spacious and has a much higher level of security. It is capable of withstanding drone attacks and has bulletproof glass. Trump stated that the Secret Service and the military need to use the White House banquet hall. Trump also emphasized that for the past 150 years, the Secret Service, the military, and others have wanted to use that banquet hall for various reasons. But the current situation is somewhat special because they need to achieve an unprecedented level of security. (CCTV News)
Trump repeatedly promoted US oil, and US crude oil and petroleum product exports reached record highs.
The latest data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that in the week ending the 17th, combined U.S. crude oil and petroleum product exports averaged approximately 12.9 million barrels per day, a record high. U.S. President Trump has repeatedly used the current Middle East conflict to "promote" U.S. oil. Recently, a large number of empty oil tankers have entered the Gulf of Mexico. Trump posted on social media that these tankers were ready to load "the world's finest, sweetest oil (and natural gas)." Experts warn that while increased U.S. crude oil exports have made energy companies very wealthy, the resulting surge in domestic oil prices will further exacerbate inflation risks. (CCTV Finance)
The chairman of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee called for an end to negotiations with Iran and a resumption of military strikes.
Senator Roger Wick, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, tweeted that "the era of negotiations with Iran is over," demanding an end to talks and a resumption of military strikes. Wick stated that Khamenei's successor would not keep any promises and called on the U.S. military to completely destroy Iran's conventional military forces and eradicate all remaining facilities of its nuclear program, stating that this is the only way to ensure lasting regional stability. On the same day, Trump stated that Iran was preparing to submit a negotiating proposal; a U.S. delegation led by Witkov and Kushner is expected to arrive in Islamabad, Pakistan, the following day.
Update! my country's No. 3 "super power bank" generator unit, boasting the largest single-unit capacity, has been successfully put into operation.
According to the Three Gorges Group, Unit 3 of the Zhejiang Tiantai Pumped Storage Power Station, my country's largest single-unit pumped storage power station, has been successfully put into operation, laying the foundation for the station to achieve full-capacity operation in June this year. The Zhejiang Tiantai Pumped Storage Power Station, with a total installed capacity of 1.7 million kilowatts, consists of an upper reservoir, a lower reservoir, a water conveyance system, and an underground powerhouse. The power station has four reversible pump-turbine generator units, each with a capacity of 425,000 kilowatts. Not only does its single-unit capacity rank first among similar projects under construction globally, but the fixed water level difference between the upper and lower reservoirs reaches 724 meters, which is also the highest among pumped storage power stations currently under construction. (CCTV)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, closed at record highs on Friday, boosted by optimism about potential peace talks between the U.S. and Iran and a surge in technology stocks such as Intel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16% to close at 49,230.71; the S&P 500 rose 0.80% to close at 7,165.08; and the Nasdaq rose 1.63% to close at 24,836.60. For the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.55% and 1.5% respectively, marking their fourth consecutive week of gains, while the Dow fell 0.44%.
Intel surged 23.65% to a record $82.57 after its second-quarter revenue outlook beat expectations, pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up for the 18th consecutive trading day. AMD and Arm both jumped about 14%, while Nvidia rose 4.32%, bringing its market capitalization close to $5 trillion.
Market focus is shifting to this week's Federal Reserve meeting, with traders currently pricing in a 39% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in December. A strong earnings season has also supported the market, with first-quarter earnings growth expectations revised upward to 16.1%. On both the NYSE and Nasdaq, advancing stocks outnumbered declining stocks, while trading volume was slightly below the 20-day average.
Gold Market
Gold prices rose on Friday, with spot gold closing at $4,721.15 per ounce, up 0.6%, but still down more than 2% for the week, recording its first weekly decline in five weeks, as persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran situation kept markets on edge. US gold futures for June delivery rose 0.4% to settle at $4,740.90. Gold demand remained under pressure in March due to the US-Iran conflict boosting the dollar and inflation concerns; despite recent reductions in military strikes, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and investors are primarily driven by news headlines.
According to Pakistani government sources, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi arrived in Islamabad to discuss restarting peace talks, but will not meet with US negotiators; meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire agreement for three weeks.
A senior strategist at RJO Futures stated that the market currently views the prospect of a peace agreement as a net positive, and oil prices have also retreated. Last week, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose 1.5%, and the dollar saw its first weekly gain in three weeks, both increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
In other precious metals, spot silver rose 1.4% to $76.49, platinum rose 0.5% to $2015.98, and palladium rose 2.2% to $1499.75.
oil market
Oil prices closed mixed on Friday amid wild swings, with Brent crude futures rising 0.3% to $105.33 a barrel and WTI crude futures falling 1.5% to $94.40 a barrel. However, both benchmark contracts recorded significant gains last week due to concerns about supply disruptions, with Brent crude rising about 16% and WTI crude rising nearly 13%. Oil brokers said traders were rushing to close out long positions before an unusually unpredictable weekend and would readjust their positions based on how the situation develops.
According to The Wall Street Journal, a senior Iranian diplomat said that Iran is open to negotiations with the United States but will not abandon its uranium enrichment activities. A Pakistani official source said on the 25th that Iran has adopted a tougher stance compared to the first round of negotiations, emphasizing that any solution to end the war must be implemented on Iran's terms, not those proposed by US President Trump.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar index fell 0.28% to 98.55 on Friday, influenced by the U.S. Department of Justice ending its investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, clearing the way for the more dovish Walsh to become the new Fed chairman, and market optimism about the prospects for U.S.-Iran peace talks.
The euro rose 0.27% against the dollar to $1.1714, while the dollar fell 0.21% against the yen to 159.40 yen. Federal funds futures traders raised their estimate of the probability of a rate cut before the end of the year from 23% to 38%. Iran's foreign minister arrived in Pakistan to discuss restarting peace talks, but details of the meeting remained unclear, keeping traders cautious.
Market focus is shifting to a divergence in global central bank policies: the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, the European Central Bank is expected to hold rates steady on April 30, but more than half of economists predict a rate hike in June, the Bank of England may keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, but the market has already priced in a rate hike before the end of the year, and the Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Tuesday, but may signal its readiness to tighten policy.
International News
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 100%, while the probability of a rate hike this year has slightly increased.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by June is 4.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95.3%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by December is 27.4% (34.4% last Friday), the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 64.4%, and the probability of raising rates by a cumulative 25 basis points is 8.2% (0.7% last Friday).
Iranian President: Will not accept negotiations under pressure or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
According to Iran's Press TV, Iranian President Pezechzian stated in a phone call with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif that Tehran will not participate in peace talks under pressure, threats, or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Pezechzian reiterated that Iran rejects joining negotiations under blockade or pressure. He suggested that the US remove all obstacles to resuming dialogue, including lifting the blockade of the Strait.
Iranian Deputy Speaker: Mojtaba orders the Strait of Hormuz not to return to pre-war status quo.
According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency on the 26th, Iranian Parliament Deputy Speaker Nikozadeh stated that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has explicitly ordered that the Strait of Hormuz must not return to its pre-war state. (Xinhua)
Iran claims to have successfully destroyed three US Massive Ordnance Penetrators.
On April 26 local time, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that its special forces had successfully destroyed three US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs and dismantled another one left in Iran's Zanjan province. The GBU-57 is a heavy bunker buster bomb developed by the United States. The US used this type of bomb in its military operation against Iranian nuclear facilities last year, and it has also been used extensively in the US-Iran conflict this year. (CCTV)
US media reports that Israel is turning southern Lebanon into Gaza.
According to US media reports on April 24, satellite images and videos show that Israel is carrying out systematic destruction in southern Lebanon, similar to its previous actions in the Gaza Strip. The reports state that Israel is not only causing large-scale damage to civilian infrastructure in southern Lebanon, but also imitating the "Gaza model" by establishing a so-called "yellow line" in Lebanon, where locals attempting to cross it to return home are shot dead. US media claims that Israel is "Gaza-izing" southern Lebanon. (CCTV International News)
Iran says it is open to negotiations with the US, but insists on its right to enrich uranium.
According to The Wall Street Journal, a senior Iranian diplomat stated that Iran is open to negotiations with the United States but will not abandon its uranium enrichment program. Iranian Ambassador to India, Mohammad Fatali, stated on social media, "Negotiations can only yield appropriate results when our adversaries recognize our right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy." The report notes that the United States is currently seeking a 20-year suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment program.
Sources: Iran's stance is tougher than during the first round of negotiations.
Pakistani official sources said on the 25th that Iran adopted a tougher stance compared to the first round of negotiations, emphasizing that any solution to ending the war must be implemented according to Iran's conditions, not those proposed by US President Trump. (Xinhua)
Following the security incident, Trump held a press conference to discuss the White House banquet hall construction project.
On the evening of the 25th local time, due to a security incident at the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner, US President Trump, his wife Melania, and a number of senior US officials attending the event were evacuated from the venue. Shortly after the incident, President Trump held a press conference in the White House Press Briefing Room. In addition to reporting some details about the security incident, Trump also linked the incident to the ongoing White House banquet hall project and emphasized the need for "an unprecedented level of security." Trump stated at the press conference that a man armed with multiple weapons attempted to force his way through security checkpoints that evening and was subsequently subdued by several Secret Service agents. One Secret Service agent was shot but survived because he was wearing a bulletproof vest. Prior to the press conference, Trump posted a photo on social media showing a man lying on the floor of the Washington Hilton Hotel. The man appeared to be the suspect. Trump also posted surveillance footage showing a man running through the Washington Hilton Hotel's security checkpoint. In the video, security personnel drew their guns and appeared to begin firing. At the press conference, Trump stated that he released the surveillance footage to "increase transparency" and demonstrate the speed of the security personnel's response to the gunman. Trump also addressed the White House banquet hall construction project. He stated that they reviewed the specific circumstances of the incident that night and that the building was not particularly robust in terms of security. Trump said he was reluctant to mention this, but it was precisely why they had to implement all the previously planned security upgrades at the White House. Trump stated that the White House banquet hall is much more spacious and has a much higher level of security. It is capable of withstanding drone attacks and has bulletproof glass. Trump stated that the Secret Service and the military need to use the White House banquet hall. Trump also emphasized that for the past 150 years, the Secret Service, the military, and others have wanted to use that banquet hall for various reasons. But the current situation is somewhat special because they need to achieve an unprecedented level of security. (CCTV News)
Trump repeatedly promoted US oil, and US crude oil and petroleum product exports reached record highs.
The latest data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that in the week ending the 17th, combined U.S. crude oil and petroleum product exports averaged approximately 12.9 million barrels per day, a record high. U.S. President Trump has repeatedly used the current Middle East conflict to "promote" U.S. oil. Recently, a large number of empty oil tankers have entered the Gulf of Mexico. Trump posted on social media that these tankers were ready to load "the world's finest, sweetest oil (and natural gas)." Experts warn that while increased U.S. crude oil exports have made energy companies very wealthy, the resulting surge in domestic oil prices will further exacerbate inflation risks. (CCTV Finance)
The chairman of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee called for an end to negotiations with Iran and a resumption of military strikes.
Senator Roger Wick, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, tweeted that "the era of negotiations with Iran is over," demanding an end to talks and a resumption of military strikes. Wick stated that Khamenei's successor would not keep any promises and called on the U.S. military to completely destroy Iran's conventional military forces and eradicate all remaining facilities of its nuclear program, stating that this is the only way to ensure lasting regional stability. On the same day, Trump stated that Iran was preparing to submit a negotiating proposal; a U.S. delegation led by Witkov and Kushner is expected to arrive in Islamabad, Pakistan, the following day.
Domestic News
Update! my country's No. 3 "super power bank" generator unit, boasting the largest single-unit capacity, has been successfully put into operation.
According to the Three Gorges Group, Unit 3 of the Zhejiang Tiantai Pumped Storage Power Station, my country's largest single-unit pumped storage power station, has been successfully put into operation, laying the foundation for the station to achieve full-capacity operation in June this year. The Zhejiang Tiantai Pumped Storage Power Station, with a total installed capacity of 1.7 million kilowatts, consists of an upper reservoir, a lower reservoir, a water conveyance system, and an underground powerhouse. The power station has four reversible pump-turbine generator units, each with a capacity of 425,000 kilowatts. Not only does its single-unit capacity rank first among similar projects under construction globally, but the fixed water level difference between the upper and lower reservoirs reaches 724 meters, which is also the highest among pumped storage power stations currently under construction. (CCTV)
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