April 30th Financial Breakfast: The Federal Reserve experiences its biggest internal disagreement in 34 years; gold prices fall to a one-month low; inventories decline more than expected; oil prices surge nearly 9%.
2026-04-30 07:28:52
On Thursday (April 30, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,552 per ounce. Gold prices touched a one-month low of $4,510.21 per ounce on Wednesday, pressured by the Federal Reserve maintaining its interest rate unchanged, internal divisions (the most severe in 34 years), and concerns about inflation triggered by the Middle East war. The Fed's statement, in which three officials expressed a desire to eliminate dovish tendencies, put pressure on gold prices. Oil prices rose nearly 9% on Wednesday, with WTI crude currently trading around $108.40 per barrel. As US-Iran negotiations stalled, market concerns about long-term supply disruptions in the Middle East intensified, while a larger-than-expected decline in EIA inventories boosted oil prices.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday in volatile trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.57%, the S&P 500 down slightly by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq Composite up a modest 0.04%. Investors were simultaneously dealing with soaring oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve interest rate decision (keeping the key rate unchanged, marking Powell's last meeting as president), and post-market earnings reports from tech giants such as Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft.
Oil prices rose amid reports that the White House was considering a long-term blockade of Iranian ports, fueling inflation concerns and driving energy stocks higher, while utilities and materials stocks saw the biggest declines.
In after-hours trading, Alphabet rose over 3%, while Amazon and Microsoft fell over 3%, and Meta fell over 6%. Other individual stocks saw gains: Seagate's optimistic outlook boosted data storage stocks; Starbucks rose 8.5% after raising its earnings forecast, Visa rose 8.3%, NXP Semiconductors rose 25.5%, and Robinhood fell 13.2% due to weaker-than-expected earnings.
On both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, the number of declining stocks significantly exceeded the number of advancing stocks, and trading volume was below the 20-day average.
Gold prices extended their losses on Wednesday, hitting a one-month low. Spot gold fell 1.4% to $4,528.17 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled down 1% at $4,561.50. The decline was pressured by the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged amid deep internal divisions (the largest since 1992) and concerns about inflation triggered by the Middle East wars. The Fed's statement, which included three officials expressing a desire to reduce dovish sentiment, further weighed on gold prices.
Traders expect no interest rate cuts for a long time this year and into next, as the US-backed war with Iran pushes global oil prices above $100 a barrel, exacerbating inflation concerns.
Analysts say the outlook for gold is currently not optimistic. However, the World Gold Council says global gold demand grew 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with purchases of gold bars and coins and central bank gold purchases (up 3%) offsetting a 23% decline in jewelry demand.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell 2.7% to $71.08, platinum fell 3% to $1881.21, and palladium fell 0.4% to $1454.52.
Oil prices surged more than 6% on Wednesday, with Brent crude futures settling at $118.03 a barrel (having touched $120 during the session) and WTI crude futures at $106.88 a barrel, both hitting multi-week highs. This was mainly due to the stalled negotiations between the US and Iran, which exacerbated market concerns about a prolonged supply disruption in the Middle East.
White House officials say President Trump has consulted with U.S. oil companies on how to deal with a potential months-long blockade of Iranian ports, further fueling supply concerns. It is estimated that the global oil supply has been lost by more than $50 billion since the start of the conflict with Iran.
Meanwhile, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that crude oil inventories fell by more than 6 million barrels last week (far exceeding the expected 200,000 barrels), and gasoline and distillate fuel inventories also fell more than expected, raising concerns about fuel shortages during the summer driving season.
Analysts at Haitong Futures stated that an extension of the blockade would further push up oil prices, while analysts at RBC Capital Markets also believe that demand growth and supply constraints will provide new support for oil prices. Furthermore, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has notified some customers that, due to the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, two grades of crude oil can be shipped from outside the Gulf next month.
The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, with the dollar index rising 0.35% to 98.938, driven by the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged amid deep internal divisions (an 8-4 vote, the largest since 1992). Powell stated that he did not believe the Fed would shift to a rate-raising stance, but the market expects new Chairman Warsh to face a hawkish challenge.
The euro fell 0.35% against the dollar to $1.16715, the pound fell 0.36% to $1.34705, and the dollar rose 0.23% against the Swiss franc to 0.7911 francs.
US discussions about a long-term blockade of Iranian ports exacerbated supply concerns, while rising oil prices pushed up real interest rates and supported the dollar. The yen fell below 160 against the dollar to 160.40 yen, a drop of 0.49%. Despite the Bank of Japan's hints at a possible future interest rate hike, the yen remained under pressure due to Japan's sensitivity to energy imports. The trade-weighted yen has fallen to its lowest level since the early 1990s, and the market is wary of possible further intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. The yen also fell against the euro to 187.22.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year has largely diminished, while the probability of a rate hike has risen to 13.5%.
According to data from CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 85.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points has decreased to 1% (from about 20% the previous day), and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points has increased to 13.5% (from 0 the previous day).
Trump said negotiations with Iran are being conducted by phone.
US President Donald Trump said on the 29th that the United States and Iran are negotiating by telephone, while emphasizing that Iran must make a clear commitment to completely abandon its nuclear weapons. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump said that the US and Iran have been in dialogue, now communicating by telephone, "no longer like before, where every time I wanted to see a document, I had to fly 18 hours to attend a meeting." He said this method is very convenient, "I can make a phone call, or have someone make a call, and I'll know the answer within 15 minutes," but "I've always preferred face-to-face communication." Trump said that some progress has been made in the negotiations, but the problem is whether the concessions made by Iran meet the US's demands. "At this point, unless they make a clear commitment to completely abandon their nuclear weapons, there is absolutely no possibility of reaching any agreement." (Xinhua)
Iran says its negotiating team is making every effort to conduct diplomatic mediation in accordance with the instructions of the Supreme Leader.
On the 29th local time, the Council of Experts of Iran, the highest governing body responsible for electing, supervising, and removing Iran's Supreme Leader, stated that its negotiating team is working in accordance with the orders and instructions of the Supreme Leader and is making every effort to conduct diplomatic mediation. (CCTV News)
Iranian Parliament Speaker Responds to US "Oil Storage Explosion Theory": Oil Prices to Reach $140
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated that three days have passed and no oil wells have exploded. "We can extend it to 30 days and broadcast it live," he said. This is the garbage advice the US government received from figures like Bessant, who advocated blockade theories to push oil prices above $120. The next target is $140. The problem isn't the theory, but the way of thinking. (Previously, Trump threatened Iran, saying that Iran had about three days left to run out of oil storage space, and that its oil infrastructure would explode due to pressure.)
The Ministry of Defense urged defense companies to accelerate weapons production.
On April 29, local time, Amir Baram, Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Defense, stated at a meeting with heads of the country's major defense companies that Israel is in a "protracted state of emergency" and must accelerate weapons production to achieve greater self-sufficiency. The meeting, attended by heads of several major Israeli defense companies including Israel Aerospace Industries, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, and Elbit Systems, aimed to assess the company's ability to improve procurement capabilities and prepare for potential war scenarios. Baram urged companies to further increase weapons production and cited instructions from Defense Minister Katz to strengthen current readiness while promoting Israel's "long-term production independence." Baram also stated that the Ministry of Defense is working to reduce the outstanding debt of defense companies, which reportedly stems from insufficient budgets at the Ministry of Finance. (CCTV News)
The Federal Reserve's policy statement shows the biggest divergence in 34 years.
On the afternoon of April 29 local time (early morning of April 30 Beijing time), the Federal Reserve announced for the third consecutive day that it would maintain interest rates unchanged after a two-day policy meeting. This was in line with market expectations. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the core decision-making body responsible for monetary policy, saw its most serious division since 1992 regarding the policy statement released that day: 8 of the 12 committee members voted in favor and 4 voted against. Apart from Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan, who supported a 25 basis point rate cut, the presidents of the Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas Federal Reserve Banks, while supporting maintaining the policy rate in the current range of 3.50%-3.75%, "did not support including an accommodative bias in the policy statement at this time," and therefore voted against the policy statement. The Federal Reserve stated in its policy statement: "U.S. inflation is high, partly reflecting recent increases in global energy prices, and developments in the Middle East have created a high degree of uncertainty for the U.S. economic outlook."
Putin and Trump spoke for an hour and a half, covering a wide range of topics.
Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov reported on the evening of the 29th that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump held a telephone conversation that day, exchanging views on issues including the shooting incident at the White House Correspondents' Club dinner, the situation in Iran, and the Ukraine crisis. According to Ushakov, at the beginning of the call, Putin strongly condemned the attempted assassination attempt against Trump at the White House Correspondents' Club dinner and expressed his support for Trump. Putin briefed Trump on Russia's special military operations and stated that Russia was prepared to announce a ceasefire during Victory Day. Trump expressed his support for this. Putin said that since the beginning of 2025, Russia has transferred more than 20,000 bodies of fallen soldiers to Ukraine, but has only received more than 500 bodies from Ukraine. Putin also said that the established objectives of the special military operations would definitely be achieved, but Russia preferred to achieve these objectives through negotiations. He believed that Ukraine was artificially prolonging the conflict. According to Ushakov, Trump shared his views on the situation in the Middle East with Putin during the call. Putin believes that Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire on Iran and the surrounding region is correct and will help stabilize the situation. Putin also stated that the option of ground military action against Iran is completely unacceptable and extremely dangerous. Ushakov said the call was initiated by the Russian side, lasted for more than an hour and a half, and the dialogue was "frank and pragmatic." (Xinhua)
The U.S. military plans to advance the Dark Hawk hypersonic missile into the Middle East, targeting deep within Iranian territory.
According to foreign media reports, the U.S. Central Command has requested the Army to deploy the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Middle East in preparation for a potential strike against Iran. The Central Command seeks a longer-range system to strike ballistic missile launchers deep within Iranian territory. The request states that the deployment is due to Iranian launchers being beyond the range of "precision strike missiles."
Trump said he suggested to Putin that Russia and Ukraine implement a short-term ceasefire.
US President Donald Trump said on the 29th that he had suggested to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia and Ukraine implement a short-term ceasefire. Speaking to reporters at the White House during a meeting with astronauts on the US manned lunar mission, Trump said he had a "long talk" with Putin and suggested a short-term ceasefire, adding, "I think he might take that suggestion." Trump said his talk with Putin was "very pleasant," covering several topics, focusing on Ukraine and also "a little about Iran." He said Putin expressed a desire to participate in resolving the issue of Iran's uranium enrichment in order to push for an end to the war with Iran. "But I told him, I would rather see you focus your energy on ending the war in Ukraine." When asked which of the two wars, Ukraine and Iran, would end first, Trump said, "I don't know, maybe their timelines are about the same." Trump also stated that he supports the UAE's decision to withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). (Xinhua)
my country's mineral resource inventory reveals 31 world firsts.
On April 29, the Ministry of Natural Resources released my country's latest mineral resource inventory. my country ranks first in the world in reserves of 14 minerals, including rare earth, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, germanium, indium, fluorite, and graphite. By 2025, China will rank first in the world in the production of 17 minerals, including coal, vanadium, titanium, zinc, rare earth, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, indium, gold, and tellurium. Currently, my country's mineral production and smelting processing scale remains the world's largest, with the national mining output value reaching approximately 32.7 trillion yuan in 2025, accounting for over 23% of GDP. The significant increase in resource reserves has laid a solid foundation for resource self-sufficiency and control. (Xinhua News Agency)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday in volatile trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.57%, the S&P 500 down slightly by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq Composite up a modest 0.04%. Investors were simultaneously dealing with soaring oil prices, a deeply divided Federal Reserve interest rate decision (keeping the key rate unchanged, marking Powell's last meeting as president), and post-market earnings reports from tech giants such as Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft.
Oil prices rose amid reports that the White House was considering a long-term blockade of Iranian ports, fueling inflation concerns and driving energy stocks higher, while utilities and materials stocks saw the biggest declines.
In after-hours trading, Alphabet rose over 3%, while Amazon and Microsoft fell over 3%, and Meta fell over 6%. Other individual stocks saw gains: Seagate's optimistic outlook boosted data storage stocks; Starbucks rose 8.5% after raising its earnings forecast, Visa rose 8.3%, NXP Semiconductors rose 25.5%, and Robinhood fell 13.2% due to weaker-than-expected earnings.
On both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, the number of declining stocks significantly exceeded the number of advancing stocks, and trading volume was below the 20-day average.
Gold Market
Gold prices extended their losses on Wednesday, hitting a one-month low. Spot gold fell 1.4% to $4,528.17 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled down 1% at $4,561.50. The decline was pressured by the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged amid deep internal divisions (the largest since 1992) and concerns about inflation triggered by the Middle East wars. The Fed's statement, which included three officials expressing a desire to reduce dovish sentiment, further weighed on gold prices.
Traders expect no interest rate cuts for a long time this year and into next, as the US-backed war with Iran pushes global oil prices above $100 a barrel, exacerbating inflation concerns.
Analysts say the outlook for gold is currently not optimistic. However, the World Gold Council says global gold demand grew 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with purchases of gold bars and coins and central bank gold purchases (up 3%) offsetting a 23% decline in jewelry demand.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell 2.7% to $71.08, platinum fell 3% to $1881.21, and palladium fell 0.4% to $1454.52.
oil market
Oil prices surged more than 6% on Wednesday, with Brent crude futures settling at $118.03 a barrel (having touched $120 during the session) and WTI crude futures at $106.88 a barrel, both hitting multi-week highs. This was mainly due to the stalled negotiations between the US and Iran, which exacerbated market concerns about a prolonged supply disruption in the Middle East.
White House officials say President Trump has consulted with U.S. oil companies on how to deal with a potential months-long blockade of Iranian ports, further fueling supply concerns. It is estimated that the global oil supply has been lost by more than $50 billion since the start of the conflict with Iran.
Meanwhile, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that crude oil inventories fell by more than 6 million barrels last week (far exceeding the expected 200,000 barrels), and gasoline and distillate fuel inventories also fell more than expected, raising concerns about fuel shortages during the summer driving season.
Analysts at Haitong Futures stated that an extension of the blockade would further push up oil prices, while analysts at RBC Capital Markets also believe that demand growth and supply constraints will provide new support for oil prices. Furthermore, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has notified some customers that, due to the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, two grades of crude oil can be shipped from outside the Gulf next month.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, with the dollar index rising 0.35% to 98.938, driven by the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged amid deep internal divisions (an 8-4 vote, the largest since 1992). Powell stated that he did not believe the Fed would shift to a rate-raising stance, but the market expects new Chairman Warsh to face a hawkish challenge.
The euro fell 0.35% against the dollar to $1.16715, the pound fell 0.36% to $1.34705, and the dollar rose 0.23% against the Swiss franc to 0.7911 francs.
US discussions about a long-term blockade of Iranian ports exacerbated supply concerns, while rising oil prices pushed up real interest rates and supported the dollar. The yen fell below 160 against the dollar to 160.40 yen, a drop of 0.49%. Despite the Bank of Japan's hints at a possible future interest rate hike, the yen remained under pressure due to Japan's sensitivity to energy imports. The trade-weighted yen has fallen to its lowest level since the early 1990s, and the market is wary of possible further intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. The yen also fell against the euro to 187.22.
International News
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year has largely diminished, while the probability of a rate hike has risen to 13.5%.
According to data from CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 85.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points has decreased to 1% (from about 20% the previous day), and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points has increased to 13.5% (from 0 the previous day).
Trump said negotiations with Iran are being conducted by phone.
US President Donald Trump said on the 29th that the United States and Iran are negotiating by telephone, while emphasizing that Iran must make a clear commitment to completely abandon its nuclear weapons. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump said that the US and Iran have been in dialogue, now communicating by telephone, "no longer like before, where every time I wanted to see a document, I had to fly 18 hours to attend a meeting." He said this method is very convenient, "I can make a phone call, or have someone make a call, and I'll know the answer within 15 minutes," but "I've always preferred face-to-face communication." Trump said that some progress has been made in the negotiations, but the problem is whether the concessions made by Iran meet the US's demands. "At this point, unless they make a clear commitment to completely abandon their nuclear weapons, there is absolutely no possibility of reaching any agreement." (Xinhua)
Iran says its negotiating team is making every effort to conduct diplomatic mediation in accordance with the instructions of the Supreme Leader.
On the 29th local time, the Council of Experts of Iran, the highest governing body responsible for electing, supervising, and removing Iran's Supreme Leader, stated that its negotiating team is working in accordance with the orders and instructions of the Supreme Leader and is making every effort to conduct diplomatic mediation. (CCTV News)
Iranian Parliament Speaker Responds to US "Oil Storage Explosion Theory": Oil Prices to Reach $140
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated that three days have passed and no oil wells have exploded. "We can extend it to 30 days and broadcast it live," he said. This is the garbage advice the US government received from figures like Bessant, who advocated blockade theories to push oil prices above $120. The next target is $140. The problem isn't the theory, but the way of thinking. (Previously, Trump threatened Iran, saying that Iran had about three days left to run out of oil storage space, and that its oil infrastructure would explode due to pressure.)
The Ministry of Defense urged defense companies to accelerate weapons production.
On April 29, local time, Amir Baram, Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Defense, stated at a meeting with heads of the country's major defense companies that Israel is in a "protracted state of emergency" and must accelerate weapons production to achieve greater self-sufficiency. The meeting, attended by heads of several major Israeli defense companies including Israel Aerospace Industries, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, and Elbit Systems, aimed to assess the company's ability to improve procurement capabilities and prepare for potential war scenarios. Baram urged companies to further increase weapons production and cited instructions from Defense Minister Katz to strengthen current readiness while promoting Israel's "long-term production independence." Baram also stated that the Ministry of Defense is working to reduce the outstanding debt of defense companies, which reportedly stems from insufficient budgets at the Ministry of Finance. (CCTV News)
The Federal Reserve's policy statement shows the biggest divergence in 34 years.
On the afternoon of April 29 local time (early morning of April 30 Beijing time), the Federal Reserve announced for the third consecutive day that it would maintain interest rates unchanged after a two-day policy meeting. This was in line with market expectations. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the core decision-making body responsible for monetary policy, saw its most serious division since 1992 regarding the policy statement released that day: 8 of the 12 committee members voted in favor and 4 voted against. Apart from Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan, who supported a 25 basis point rate cut, the presidents of the Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas Federal Reserve Banks, while supporting maintaining the policy rate in the current range of 3.50%-3.75%, "did not support including an accommodative bias in the policy statement at this time," and therefore voted against the policy statement. The Federal Reserve stated in its policy statement: "U.S. inflation is high, partly reflecting recent increases in global energy prices, and developments in the Middle East have created a high degree of uncertainty for the U.S. economic outlook."
Putin and Trump spoke for an hour and a half, covering a wide range of topics.
Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov reported on the evening of the 29th that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump held a telephone conversation that day, exchanging views on issues including the shooting incident at the White House Correspondents' Club dinner, the situation in Iran, and the Ukraine crisis. According to Ushakov, at the beginning of the call, Putin strongly condemned the attempted assassination attempt against Trump at the White House Correspondents' Club dinner and expressed his support for Trump. Putin briefed Trump on Russia's special military operations and stated that Russia was prepared to announce a ceasefire during Victory Day. Trump expressed his support for this. Putin said that since the beginning of 2025, Russia has transferred more than 20,000 bodies of fallen soldiers to Ukraine, but has only received more than 500 bodies from Ukraine. Putin also said that the established objectives of the special military operations would definitely be achieved, but Russia preferred to achieve these objectives through negotiations. He believed that Ukraine was artificially prolonging the conflict. According to Ushakov, Trump shared his views on the situation in the Middle East with Putin during the call. Putin believes that Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire on Iran and the surrounding region is correct and will help stabilize the situation. Putin also stated that the option of ground military action against Iran is completely unacceptable and extremely dangerous. Ushakov said the call was initiated by the Russian side, lasted for more than an hour and a half, and the dialogue was "frank and pragmatic." (Xinhua)
The U.S. military plans to advance the Dark Hawk hypersonic missile into the Middle East, targeting deep within Iranian territory.
According to foreign media reports, the U.S. Central Command has requested the Army to deploy the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Middle East in preparation for a potential strike against Iran. The Central Command seeks a longer-range system to strike ballistic missile launchers deep within Iranian territory. The request states that the deployment is due to Iranian launchers being beyond the range of "precision strike missiles."
Trump said he suggested to Putin that Russia and Ukraine implement a short-term ceasefire.
US President Donald Trump said on the 29th that he had suggested to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russia and Ukraine implement a short-term ceasefire. Speaking to reporters at the White House during a meeting with astronauts on the US manned lunar mission, Trump said he had a "long talk" with Putin and suggested a short-term ceasefire, adding, "I think he might take that suggestion." Trump said his talk with Putin was "very pleasant," covering several topics, focusing on Ukraine and also "a little about Iran." He said Putin expressed a desire to participate in resolving the issue of Iran's uranium enrichment in order to push for an end to the war with Iran. "But I told him, I would rather see you focus your energy on ending the war in Ukraine." When asked which of the two wars, Ukraine and Iran, would end first, Trump said, "I don't know, maybe their timelines are about the same." Trump also stated that he supports the UAE's decision to withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). (Xinhua)
Domestic News
my country's mineral resource inventory reveals 31 world firsts.
On April 29, the Ministry of Natural Resources released my country's latest mineral resource inventory. my country ranks first in the world in reserves of 14 minerals, including rare earth, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, germanium, indium, fluorite, and graphite. By 2025, China will rank first in the world in the production of 17 minerals, including coal, vanadium, titanium, zinc, rare earth, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, indium, gold, and tellurium. Currently, my country's mineral production and smelting processing scale remains the world's largest, with the national mining output value reaching approximately 32.7 trillion yuan in 2025, accounting for over 23% of GDP. The significant increase in resource reserves has laid a solid foundation for resource self-sufficiency and control. (Xinhua News Agency)
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