Silver suddenly surged! Can the US-Iran agreement push silver prices to $80?
2026-05-07 12:12:45
Boosted by expectations of a deal between the US and Iran, spot silver prices (XAG/USD) rose for the second consecutive trading day, climbing as much as 1.2% to $78.26 per ounce during Asian trading hours on Thursday (May 7), and are currently trading around $77.50 per ounce.
Silver, as a non-interest-bearing asset, has recently gained upward momentum, mainly due to market optimism regarding a potential US-Iran agreement. This expectation triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, thereby easing inflation concerns and weakening market expectations that major central banks will maintain a hawkish policy stance in the long term.
However, Chicago Fed President Goolsby warned that since the outbreak of the conflict, inflation has not continued to fall back toward the Fed's 2% target, but has instead accelerated, adding uncertainty to the outlook for silver prices.
Iran said a U.S.-proposed solution to end the conflict is "still under consideration," the BBC reported on Wednesday, despite earlier reports that the two sides might be close to reaching an agreement. The U.S. reportedly submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran proposing a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an easing of U.S. blockades on Iranian ports. Discussions on Iran's nuclear program will take place in later stages, and no final agreement has yet been reached.
Meanwhile, CNBC reported that US President Trump warned of “higher-level” bombing if Iran refuses to agree to a peace agreement. Trump posted on Truth Social that the military offensive, codenamed “Operation Fury,” would “be over” if Iran “agrees to the terms of the agreement.”
Overall, the prospects for US-Iran peace talks remain a key variable influencing the short-term trend of silver. If a substantial agreement is reached and inflationary pressures ease further, silver prices may continue to be supported; conversely, if negotiations break down and geopolitical tensions escalate again, safe-haven demand for silver could reignite. Investors are also focused on Friday's US non-farm payroll report, which may influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and consequently affect silver prices.
Institutions generally believe that the medium- to long-term upward trend of gold provides an "important anchor" for silver. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of $5,400/ounce for gold by the end of 2026, while Bank of America has raised its average gold price forecast for 2026 to $5,093. The gold-silver ratio is currently at a historically high level, and if gold continues to rise, silver has the potential to catch up.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 12:11 Beijing time, spot silver was trading at $77.54 per ounce.
US-Iran peace talks expected to ease inflation concerns
Silver, as a non-interest-bearing asset, has recently gained upward momentum, mainly due to market optimism regarding a potential US-Iran agreement. This expectation triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, thereby easing inflation concerns and weakening market expectations that major central banks will maintain a hawkish policy stance in the long term.
However, Chicago Fed President Goolsby warned that since the outbreak of the conflict, inflation has not continued to fall back toward the Fed's 2% target, but has instead accelerated, adding uncertainty to the outlook for silver prices.
US-Iran negotiations: progress and differences coexist
Iran said a U.S.-proposed solution to end the conflict is "still under consideration," the BBC reported on Wednesday, despite earlier reports that the two sides might be close to reaching an agreement. The U.S. reportedly submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran proposing a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an easing of U.S. blockades on Iranian ports. Discussions on Iran's nuclear program will take place in later stages, and no final agreement has yet been reached.
Trump issues threats, but the situation remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, CNBC reported that US President Trump warned of “higher-level” bombing if Iran refuses to agree to a peace agreement. Trump posted on Truth Social that the military offensive, codenamed “Operation Fury,” would “be over” if Iran “agrees to the terms of the agreement.”
Overall, the prospects for US-Iran peace talks remain a key variable influencing the short-term trend of silver. If a substantial agreement is reached and inflationary pressures ease further, silver prices may continue to be supported; conversely, if negotiations break down and geopolitical tensions escalate again, safe-haven demand for silver could reignite. Investors are also focused on Friday's US non-farm payroll report, which may influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and consequently affect silver prices.
Gold provides bottom support
Institutions generally believe that the medium- to long-term upward trend of gold provides an "important anchor" for silver. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of $5,400/ounce for gold by the end of 2026, while Bank of America has raised its average gold price forecast for 2026 to $5,093. The gold-silver ratio is currently at a historically high level, and if gold continues to rise, silver has the potential to catch up.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 12:11 Beijing time, spot silver was trading at $77.54 per ounce.
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