As the conflict with Iran triggers a global energy shortage, the United States is playing a key role as a "swing supplier," helping to alleviate the global energy shortage by significantly increasing energy exports.

According to data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler, from January to April, total U.S. exports of crude oil, gasoline, liquefied natural gas, diesel, jet fuel, and ethane reached 153 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 20%. By early 2026, total U.S. petroleum and refined product exports are projected to reach 14.2 million barrels per day, a 33% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Gasoline exports increased by 27%, diesel by 23%, and liquefied natural gas by 26%. Jet fuel exports saw an even more dramatic year-on-year surge of 82%, driven by refineries rushing to fulfill panic orders from international buyers.

Increased exports partially offset the Middle East deficit, but domestic supply tightened.

U.S. exports increased by approximately 25 million tons of oil, fuels, and liquefied natural gas, partially offsetting the impact of a roughly 82 million-ton decrease in Middle Eastern exports since the outbreak of conflict in late February, helping to keep prices of these commodities within a relatively manageable range. However, the large-scale exports also exacerbated the tight energy supply situation in the United States, leading to gasoline price increases in all 50 states.

On Tuesday, a report released by GasBuddy, based on data from over 150,000 gas stations across the United States, showed that the national average gasoline price had risen to $4.54 per gallon . Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy's director of petroleum analysis, stated, "Gasoline prices rose in every state last week, with the Great Lakes region experiencing the most significant and rapid increases. Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois saw substantial price spikes, while Wisconsin saw relatively modest increases."

Current gasoline prices in the United States are approaching levels seen in mid-2022, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered a global energy crisis. The soaring oil prices have also unsettled US lawmakers, with some proposing bills to restrict or suspend gasoline exports.

The proposed export ban sparked controversy.

Last week, U.S. Representative Ro Khanna reintroduced the "Gasoline Export Ban Act of 2026," aimed at prohibiting gasoline exports. The proposal stipulates that the ban will automatically activate if the national average gasoline price exceeds $3.12 per gallon for seven consecutive days. If passed, the bill would prevent oil companies from prioritizing exports, thereby increasing domestic supply and reducing costs for American consumers during peak price periods.

However, the proposal has met with strong opposition. Opponents argue that such export restrictions could disrupt global markets, damage long-standing U.S. business relationships, and potentially harm the domestic refining industry due to supply and demand imbalances.

The export ban will lead to a surplus of light sweet crude oil in the U.S., while simultaneously creating a shortage of heavy complex crude oil needed by refineries. This structural mismatch could force refineries to reduce processing volumes, resulting in up to 1.3 million barrels per day of idle refining capacity, which could in turn push up domestic fuel prices. Furthermore, restricting energy exports would make the U.S. an unreliable supplier in the eyes of key allies in Europe, Asia, and Latin America, regions heavily reliant on U.S. crude oil and refined products.

The Trump administration has no plans for an export ban, and peace negotiations are showing signs of progress.

Despite political pressure, the Trump administration has previously stated that it is not currently considering an energy export ban, focusing instead on maintaining the flow of U.S. energy to global markets while managing domestic repercussions. However, it remains to be seen whether the government's stance will change if the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to gasoline prices climbing further to $6 or even $7 per gallon .

Encouragingly, according to the latest reports, the United States and Iran are close to reaching a one-page, 14-point memorandum to end the conflict in the Gulf region. Pakistan has played a major role in mediating the negotiations, which are now in their most optimistic phase since the conflict began, with Tehran expected to issue a formal response within 48 hours.

The memorandum will formally announce the end of the conflict and launch 30 days of detailed negotiations to reach a permanent security and economic arrangement. Both sides will agree to a nuclear abrogation, with Iran pledging to suspend uranium enrichment activities. The United States will gradually lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, while also gradually lifting shipping restrictions and the U.S. naval blockade to restore global oil flows.

Overall , while the United States, as a global energy "swing supplier," has played a significant role in alleviating international shortages, its high domestic oil prices have triggered substantial political and social pressure. The eventual resolution of the Middle East conflict will be crucial to easing global and domestic energy tensions in the United States.