Peace expectations ignited global markets overnight: oil prices collapsed and stock markets rose, but did the US and Iran really reach an agreement?
2026-05-07 14:41:15
US President Trump predicted on Wednesday (May 6) that the US-Iran war would "end soon," saying that the two sides had had "very good consultations" over the past 24 hours. However, Iran's response to this peace proposal was much more lukewarm—the Foreign Ministry said it was under consideration, while a lawmaker bluntly stated that the proposal was "less of a reality than a wish list for the United States." Driven by expectations of peace talks, international oil prices plunged by about 12% to $97 per barrel on Wednesday before recovering to above $100, and global stock markets generally rose.
I. A One-Page Memorandum: End the War and Initiate Follow-up Negotiations
According to Pakistani sources and another person familiar with the mediation, the US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement on a one-page memorandum to formally end the conflict. This memorandum would initiate follow-up discussions on clearing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting US sanctions against Iran, and limiting Iran's nuclear program. However, sources indicate that the memorandum still fails to address a key US demand—that Iran suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait.
II. Iranian Official Statements: Cold Treatment and Ridicule
A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, through the Students' News Agency, stated that Tehran would convey its response. Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in English, seemingly mocking reports of a close agreement: "Believe me, brother, the operation has failed." He called such reports mere propaganda by the United States after its failure to open the Strait of Hormuz. Parliamentarian Ebrahim Rezaei went even further, stating that the proposal was "less a reality than a wish list from the United States."
III. Trump: Optimistic but without details
In stark contrast to Iran's calm, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, "They want a deal... there's a good chance of a deal." He added, "It will be over soon." However, he offered no substantive details to support this optimistic prediction.
IV. The Saudi Factor: Trump's Sudden Suspension of Action Has Other Hidden Reasons
On Tuesday, Trump suspended naval operations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress in peace talks. However, according to NBC News, citing two U.S. officials, this abrupt shift occurred after Saudi Arabia suspended U.S. military use of one of its bases. The report stated that Saudi officials were "surprised and angry" by Trump's announcement that the U.S. would assist in escorting ships through the Strait, and therefore informed Washington that they would refuse to allow U.S. military aircraft to take off from Saudi bases or cross Saudi airspace. The White House has not yet commented on this.
V. The war continues: US forces are still firing.
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, military operations have not ceased. U.S. Central Command stated that on Wednesday, U.S. forces opened fire on an unloaded Iranian-flagged oil tanker that attempted to breach a blockade and head towards an Iranian port; the ship was struck and rendered inoperable.
In summary, the US-Iran situation presents a stark contrast: Trump's high-profile prediction of an impending end to the war elicited a market response of plummeting oil prices and soaring stock markets; while Iran has adopted a cold stance, even mocking the proposal, calling it merely an "American wish list." Adding complexity, the sudden suspension of naval operations by Trump is subtly linked to Saudi Arabia's "suspension" of access to US military bases, further complicating the situation.
Takamasa Ikeda, senior portfolio manager at GCI Asset Management, commented, "The US-Iran peace proposal is quite limited, but the market expects no further military action." This perhaps reflects the current market sentiment—not expecting a single document to solve all problems, but at least seeing a glimmer of hope that the conflict will not escalate further. However, as long as actual passage through the Strait of Hormuz has not been restored, US sanctions have not been lifted, and negotiations on Iran's nuclear program have not begun, the dramatic fluctuations in oil prices are far from over.
Details of the peace proposal have been revealed, revealing both disagreements and ridicule.
I. A One-Page Memorandum: End the War and Initiate Follow-up Negotiations
According to Pakistani sources and another person familiar with the mediation, the US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement on a one-page memorandum to formally end the conflict. This memorandum would initiate follow-up discussions on clearing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting US sanctions against Iran, and limiting Iran's nuclear program. However, sources indicate that the memorandum still fails to address a key US demand—that Iran suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait.
II. Iranian Official Statements: Cold Treatment and Ridicule
A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, through the Students' News Agency, stated that Tehran would convey its response. Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in English, seemingly mocking reports of a close agreement: "Believe me, brother, the operation has failed." He called such reports mere propaganda by the United States after its failure to open the Strait of Hormuz. Parliamentarian Ebrahim Rezaei went even further, stating that the proposal was "less a reality than a wish list from the United States."
III. Trump: Optimistic but without details
In stark contrast to Iran's calm, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, "They want a deal... there's a good chance of a deal." He added, "It will be over soon." However, he offered no substantive details to support this optimistic prediction.
IV. The Saudi Factor: Trump's Sudden Suspension of Action Has Other Hidden Reasons
On Tuesday, Trump suspended naval operations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress in peace talks. However, according to NBC News, citing two U.S. officials, this abrupt shift occurred after Saudi Arabia suspended U.S. military use of one of its bases. The report stated that Saudi officials were "surprised and angry" by Trump's announcement that the U.S. would assist in escorting ships through the Strait, and therefore informed Washington that they would refuse to allow U.S. military aircraft to take off from Saudi bases or cross Saudi airspace. The White House has not yet commented on this.
V. The war continues: US forces are still firing.
Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, military operations have not ceased. U.S. Central Command stated that on Wednesday, U.S. forces opened fire on an unloaded Iranian-flagged oil tanker that attempted to breach a blockade and head towards an Iranian port; the ship was struck and rendered inoperable.
The coexistence of hopes for peace talks and real-world disagreements suggests that market volatility is likely to continue.
In summary, the US-Iran situation presents a stark contrast: Trump's high-profile prediction of an impending end to the war elicited a market response of plummeting oil prices and soaring stock markets; while Iran has adopted a cold stance, even mocking the proposal, calling it merely an "American wish list." Adding complexity, the sudden suspension of naval operations by Trump is subtly linked to Saudi Arabia's "suspension" of access to US military bases, further complicating the situation.
Takamasa Ikeda, senior portfolio manager at GCI Asset Management, commented, "The US-Iran peace proposal is quite limited, but the market expects no further military action." This perhaps reflects the current market sentiment—not expecting a single document to solve all problems, but at least seeing a glimmer of hope that the conflict will not escalate further. However, as long as actual passage through the Strait of Hormuz has not been restored, US sanctions have not been lifted, and negotiations on Iran's nuclear program have not begun, the dramatic fluctuations in oil prices are far from over.
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