May 13th Financial Breakfast: The probability of a Fed rate hike this year rises, putting pressure on gold prices; Iran warns of increasing uranium enrichment to 90%, causing oil prices to surge nearly 4%.
2026-05-13 07:23:05

Key Focus Today

stock market
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, down 0.16% and 0.71% respectively, retreating from record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.11%. Higher-than-expected increases in the April consumer price index, coupled with the increasingly fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement due to the situation in Iran, led investors to take profits as earnings season neared its end.
Technology stocks dragged down the Nasdaq, while healthcare stocks led the Dow Jones higher. Inflation data was affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war, and market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year have been almost dashed, increasing the probability of a rate hike. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 30.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December.
In terms of individual stocks, Zebra Technologies surged 11.4% after raising its annual sales growth forecast; Humana rose 7.7% after raising its target price by 36%; GameStop fell 3.5% after eBay rejected its acquisition offer; Hims & Hers Health plummeted 14.1% due to lower-than-expected revenue and unexpected losses; and Venture Global surged 14.2% after raising its core profit forecast.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell on Tuesday, with spot gold down 0.41% to $4,715.07 an ounce, mainly as dashed hopes for an Iranian peace deal pushed up oil prices and exacerbated market concerns about inflation and potential rises in global interest rates.

TD Securities strategists said that rising oil prices increase the risk that central banks such as the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates to combat stagflation, thus putting pressure on gold.
U.S. consumer prices rose for the second consecutive month in April, with the year-on-year increase being the largest in nearly three years, reinforcing market expectations that interest rates will remain high. Although gold is considered an inflation hedge, rising interest rates will put downward pressure on non-interest-bearing assets. Furthermore, Indian banks resumed gold imports after a one-month suspension, and the market is also focused on Wednesday's U.S. PPI data and the meeting between the leaders of the two largest economies. Spot silver fell 1.1% to $85.12, while platinum and palladium fell 1.5% and 2%, respectively.
oil market
Oil prices rose for the third straight session on Tuesday, with Brent crude up 3.01% to $107.41 a barrel and WTI crude up 3.87% to $102.05, mainly due to significant differences between the U.S. and Iran over proposals to end the Middle East war, with ceasefire negotiations "on the verge of collapse" and Iran emphasizing its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that the Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain effectively closed until late May, with Middle Eastern oil and gas supply losses far exceeding previous forecasts. Even if navigation resumes, oil production and trade patterns are not expected to return to pre-conflict levels until at least the end of 2026 or early 2027. The prolonged supply disruption is forcing global inventories to deplete, with the EIA projecting a decrease of approximately 2.6 million barrels per day in global oil inventories this year, significantly higher than the previous forecast of 300,000 barrels per day.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, with the dollar index gaining 0.4% to 98.36. This was primarily driven by the US April CPI rising 3.8% year-on-year, the largest increase since May 2023 and slightly exceeding expectations. Furthermore, doubts about the stability of the Iran ceasefire agreement boosted demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. The market has largely ruled out a Fed rate cut this year, with expectations for at least a 25 basis point rate hike in December rising to 36%.

Warsh, Trump's nominee for the next Federal Reserve chairman, has been confirmed by the Senate to serve on the board of governors, and a vote on his appointment as chairman could take place as early as Wednesday.
In the foreign exchange market, the euro fell 0.42% to $1.1732; the dollar rose 0.33% against the yen to 157.66. The yen's sudden jump in early trading on Tuesday sparked speculation of a "currency inquiry," and US Treasury Secretary Bessant stated that both the US and Japan considered excessive currency volatility unfavorable, which was seen as support for Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market. The pound fell 0.62% to $1.3523, hitting a new low since April 30th, as British Prime Minister Starmer faced calls to resign but remained in power. Rising oil prices after hopes for an Iranian peace deal dashed also exacerbated market concerns about inflation and interest rate prospects.
International News
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year has risen to 34.7%, up from 26.3% the previous day.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 97.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2.9%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 96%, and the probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points is 4%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 62.8%, the probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points is 2.6%, and the probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points is 34.7% (26.3% the previous day).
Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi: Regulatory rules for the Strait of Hormuz are being drafted; the US lacks sincerity and is hindering a ceasefire.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that Iran, as a littoral state of the Strait of Hormuz, is consulting on arrangements related to the strait in accordance with international law and is working on drafting regulatory rules. Araqchi also pointed out that the arrogant behavior, threatening and provocative rhetoric, and lack of sincerity and untrustworthy attitude of the United States are the biggest obstacles to a complete end to the conflict and the achievement of a potential agreement.
The US-Iran standoff continues; Trump says he's "not in a hurry," while Iran sets a threshold for negotiations.
On March 12, local time, US President Trump stated that the conflict with Iran did not need to be resolved hastily and that he was confident he could prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The US Secretary of Defense stated that despite recent tensions and exchanges of fire, the ceasefire agreement with Iran remained in effect. Iran, however, stated that ending the conflict and lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were prerequisites for any negotiations with the United States. Some Iranian officials also stated that if Iran were attacked again, it might increase its uranium enrichment level to 90%. (CCTV)
Iran's Economy Minister: Plans are underway to shift some import routes to northern ports and land borders.
Iran's Economy Minister stated that Tehran is planning to shift some import routes to northern ports and land borders following delays caused by the US blockade of southern Iranian ports. Ali Madanizadeh told state television, "Given the slowdown in imports at our southern border and ports, shifting transport routes to northern ports and land borders has been put on the agenda." He added, "A national working group has been established to oversee the overall planning, and provincial working groups have also been set up in the border provinces. All obstacles related to the import, export, and transit of goods will be reviewed and resolved by these provincial working groups."
Iraq and Pakistan have reportedly signed separate agreements with Iran for the transportation of energy.
Iraq and Pakistan have signed separate agreements with Iran to transport oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf region. Under the agreements, Iraq ensured the safe passage of two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) that passed through the Strait of Hormuz on May 10, each carrying approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil. Meanwhile, under a separate bilateral agreement between Pakistan and Iran, two tankers carrying Qatari LNG are en route to Pakistan. Sources indicate that neither Iraq nor Pakistan has made any direct payments to Iran or its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding the transit arrangements. (CCTV News)
A U.S. appeals court has ordered a stay of enforcement of its ruling that Trump's 10% tariffs were illegal.
A U.S. federal appeals court has temporarily halted a ruling that Trump's global tariffs were illegal. The Trump administration is requesting permission to continue imposing tariffs while the legal dispute continues, and the judge is weighing that request. The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals issued a brief order Tuesday, a so-called "administrative stay," and set a fast-track timetable for both parties to submit written comments on the government's request to maintain the tariffs during the appeal process. Small businesses that filed the lawsuit and Democratic state officials must respond within a week. The "administrative stay" means that importers will still be required to pay the 10% tariffs imposed by Trump under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
The U.S. Senate voted to approve Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
On May 12 local time, the U.S. Senate voted to approve Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. The voting process is still ongoing. On January 30, Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed current Chairman Jerome Powell. (CCTV News)
British media: Two more British government officials have announced their resignations.
British media reported on the 12th that Jess Phillips, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Home Office, and Alex Davis-Jones, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Justice Department, both announced their resignations that day. In a letter published by Sky News, Phillips stated that she "did not see the changes that I and the country expected," and therefore could not continue in her position. Davis-Jones, in her resignation letter posted on social media that day, said she hoped Prime Minister Starmer would "put the national interest first" and propose a timetable for his resignation. Three British government officials had resigned on the 12th. Earlier that day, Miata Fainbra, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, announced her resignation, urging Starmer to "set an orderly transition timetable." Starmer is currently facing immense pressure to resign. According to multiple British media reports, several cabinet members have asked Starmer to propose a timetable for his resignation. (Xinhua)
Alaska is advancing legislation to formally recognize gold and silver as legal tender.
The Alaska Senate has passed legislation recognizing gold and silver as legal tender by a near unanimous vote. Supporters argue the bill will help protect financial freedom and give local precious metals traders a level playing field against tax-free online competitors. The proposal, dubbed the "Sound Money Act," passed the state Senate on May 11 with 19 votes in favor and 1 against, and is now before Governor Mike Dunleavy for final consideration. Previously, the bill passed the state assembly with a unanimous vote of 40. According to the bill, gold and silver coins, as well as gold and silver bars bearing official markings, will be officially recognized as legal tender to the fullest extent permitted by federal law. Crucially, the bill stipulates that transactions involving physical precious metals will not be considered taxable goods transactions at the local sales or use tax level. It should be noted that the bill does not mandate that any individual or business accept precious metals as payment. Its overall framework aims to formally grant gold and silver the status of legal financial instruments while maintaining the voluntary nature of monetary transactions.
Starmer faces sack crisis; Labour Party divided.
The Labour Party suffered a crushing defeat in the local elections, plunging its leader and Prime Minister Keir Starmer into a crisis of resignation. On the 12th, several Parliamentary Under-Secretaries threatened to resign, but several cabinet ministers expressed their support for Starmer to remain in office. According to British media reports, over 80 Labour MPs in the House of Commons have called for Starmer's resignation. Furthermore, more than 100 Labour MPs have signed a statement opposing a change of leadership at this time. The statement argues that the Labour Party's electoral losses demonstrate its urgent need to regain voters' trust, and that internal cooperation within the party is crucial; now is not the time to hold a leadership election. (Xinhua)
Domestic News
Chinese culture has won over the world.
In the past, when people mentioned "Made in China" and "Chinese brands," they mostly thought of automobiles, home appliances, and clothing. But today, original Chinese cultural products such as short dramas, movies, games, and trendy toys are creating a global cultural boom. In the first quarter of this year, my country's service exports reached 704.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%; among them, personal cultural and entertainment services saw the fastest growth, reaching 25.6%. What opportunities and development secrets lie behind this rise in soft power? According to international consulting firms, the global overseas short drama market is expected to exceed 120 billion yuan in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 53.9%, and Chinese companies are expected to account for 76% of the market share. AI has shortened the time required for scriptwriting (tens of thousands of words), multilingual translation, and editing of massive amounts of material from months to weeks, significantly reducing costs. Chinese game revenue in overseas markets has exceeded 100 billion yuan for six consecutive years. In 2026, the actual sales revenue of Chinese self-developed games in overseas markets reached 6.331 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 31.76%. In recent years, Chinese trendy toys have accelerated their overseas expansion, becoming a social currency for young people worldwide and attracting countless fans. The source of this cultural frenzy also lies in China. In 2025, a Chinese trendy toy company's overseas revenue reached 16.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 291.9%, accounting for 43.8% of its total revenue. Experts say that the overseas surge in interest in Chinese culture is an inevitable trend for Chinese brands moving from exporting products to building cultural confidence. (CCTV Finance)
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