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May 21st Financial Breakfast: The Federal Reserve begins discussing the possibility of interest rate hikes; gold prices hit a more than seven-week low; the US-Iran agreement enters its final polishing stage; oil prices plunge nearly 5%.

2026-05-21 06:29:12

On Thursday (May 21, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,540 per ounce. Gold prices touched a more than seven-week low of $4,453.60 per ounce on Wednesday, as more Federal Reserve policymakers became more open to raising interest rates, slightly reducing the probability of a rate hike this year to 53%. US crude oil was trading around $98.87 per barrel, after falling nearly 5% on Wednesday. US President Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations had entered the "final stage," and reports indicated that the text of the US-Iran agreement was in its final polishing stage and could be released within hours.

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Key Focus Today



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stock market


Driven by a renewed surge in AI interest, U.S. stocks rebounded sharply on Wednesday, with all three major indexes rising by more than 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.31% to 50,009.35 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.08% to 7,432.97 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.55% to 26,270.36 points.

Chip stocks led the gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging 4.5%. Nvidia closed 1.3% higher after announcing better-than-expected second-quarter revenue forecasts and an $80 billion share buyback program. Astera Labs and Arm's U.S.-listed shares jumped 17.7% and 15%, respectively.

After three consecutive days of decline, the market has refocused on AI-related themes. Despite previous tensions in the Middle East caused by the US-Israeli attack on Iran, high oil prices, and inflation concerns, Iran and the US have maintained information exchange, with Trump indicating a willingness to wait a few days. Meanwhile, the decline in 10-year US Treasury yields has provided support for the stock market.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's April meeting showed that more officials believed that groundwork should be laid for a possible rate hike, but market bets on a December rate hike fluctuated to 36.8%. Eight of the eleven sectors in the S&P 500 rose, with consumer discretionary and technology sectors both up 2.5%, energy down 2.6%, and consumer staples down nearly 1% due to Target's drag. Meanwhile, falling oil prices boosted airline stocks by 6%-10%, and cruise lines Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line rose more than 8%.

Gold Market


Gold prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday, with spot gold at $4,543.53 per ounce. The price touched a more than seven-week low earlier in the session, dragged down by expectations of a potential resolution to the Iranian conflict, which weighed on oil prices and pushed down US Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has retreated slightly from its highest level since January 2025, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. A trading director noted that regardless of how the war is resolved, market expectations of lower interest rates will support gold prices.

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The minutes of the Federal Reserve's April meeting showed that policymakers warned that a war with Iran could push up inflation, and most officials believed that if inflation remained above 2%, interest rates might need to be raised. The market currently expects a 48.6% probability of a rate hike in December, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged in June is 89.6%. Citigroup is cautious about gold in the short term, with a 0-3 month target price of $4,300.

In other precious metals, spot silver rose 3.1% to $76.06, platinum rose 1.6% to $1952.30, and palladium rose 1.5% to $1373.62.

oil market


Oil prices fell nearly 5% on Wednesday, with Brent crude down 4.95% to $105.46 a barrel and WTI crude down 4.76% to $99.08 a barrel, influenced by US President Trump's statement that US-Iran negotiations had entered the "final stage".

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Trump warned that Iran would face further attacks unless it agreed to a deal. Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded that it was prepared to work with other coastal states to develop a safe shipping agreement. However, some market participants remain cautious about the outcome of the negotiations, worried that even if an agreement is reached, the global supply shortage may continue.

Citigroup predicts Brent crude will rise to $120 in the short term, believing the market is underestimating the risk of supply disruptions. Wood Mackenzie estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked until the end of the year, oil prices could approach $200. The premium of the Brent near-month contract over the six-month contract is about $20 per barrel, down from the previous month's high of $35. Meanwhile, three supertankers are transiting the Strait of Hormuz to transport Middle Eastern crude oil, but the number of ships transiting is still far below the pre-war level of about 130 ships per day. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.9 million barrels to 445 million barrels in the week ending May 15, a drop far exceeding analysts' expectations of 2.9 million barrels.

Foreign exchange market


The dollar retreated from a six-week high on Wednesday as market expectations for a nuclear deal between the US and Iran rose. A sharp drop in US Treasury yields also weighed on the dollar. The dollar index fell 0.21% to 99.10, the euro rose 0.21% to $1.1628, the pound strengthened 0.37% to $1.3442, and the Australian dollar rose 0.63% to $0.5871.

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The minutes of the Fed’s April meeting showed that more and more officials supported paving the way for a possible rate hike, and federal funds futures pricing indicated a 50% probability of a rate hike before January next year, a sharp reversal from the expectation of two rate cuts in late February.

The Japanese yen has become the focus of the market, with the USD/JPY pair rising for the seventh consecutive trading day, approaching the 160 mark. It was last quoted at 158.82 yen, which is the trigger point for Japanese officials' first foreign exchange intervention in nearly two years last month. Sources said that Tokyo had intervened several times in late April and early May to curb the yen's decline, but the effect was short-lived. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter expressed his hope that the Bank of Japan would further raise interest rates. Analysts pointed out that the risk of intervention will make the market more cautious when chasing the USD/JPY pair higher. However, unless the US Treasury yield and the dollar index weaken overall, official actions may only temporarily slow down rather than reverse this trend.

International News


Report: The text of the US-Iran agreement is in its final polishing stage and is expected to be released within hours.

According to Al Jazeera, sources indicate that all parties are working diligently to finalize the text of the agreement between Washington and Tehran. The Pakistani Army Chief of Staff may visit Iran tomorrow to announce the completion of the final version of the agreement. If the Pakistani Army Chief of Staff does not travel to Iran, the final version of the agreement could be announced within hours. The next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after the Hajj season.

Report: Trump says US-Iran negotiations have entered the final stage

According to a White House press clerk, President Trump stated that negotiations between the United States and Iran are in their final stages. The report cited Trump's earlier remarks to reporters at Joint Base Andrews. Trump commented on the US-Iran situation, saying "the future remains to be seen," and indicated that either an agreement would be reached or the US would take some tough measures, but he hoped the situation would not escalate to that point.

Trump said he was willing to wait a few more days for news from Iran.

US President Donald Trump said on the 20th that he was willing to wait a few more days for news from Iran if the US and Iran could reach an agreement. Speaking to reporters at the airport after returning to Washington, D.C. from Connecticut, Trump said things could progress very quickly, or it could take several days, and he hoped Iranian leaders could broker an agreement beneficial to all parties. He stated, "If simply waiting a few more days can prevent a war… then I think that's an extremely meaningful thing." (Xinhua)

The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that more policymakers were open to raising interest rates.

Last month, concerns intensified among Federal Reserve officials about the potential for inflation driven by the Iran war, with a growing number accepting the possibility of a possible interest rate hike. This suggests that incoming Chairman Warsh will be taking over an increasingly hawkish team of central bank officials. Minutes released Wednesday showed that at the April 28-29 meeting, a majority of Fed policymakers believed that if inflation persisted above the central bank's 2% target, "some policy tightening measures might become appropriate." The minutes stated, "In response to this possibility, many participants indicated they would prefer the removal from the post-meeting statement any wording that suggested the Committee's future interest rate decisions might lean towards easing." While "many" in the Fed's strict terminology doesn't meet the standard of "majority," it suggests that the three Fed presidents who voted against maintaining the statement unchanged received at least an equal number of support from non-voting members. Modifying the statement could be seen as a constraint on the new Fed chairman, who had previously expressed support for rate cuts, at least before the Iran war.

The Federal Reserve introduces a new clearing and settlement payment account scheme.

The Federal Reserve has released a proposal to establish a new type of payment account for select financial institutions to use for fund clearing and settlement. In a statement released Wednesday, the Fed said the new account proposal is currently open for public comment and aims to meet the needs of industry innovation while effectively reducing significant risks to the Federal Reserve Bank and the payment system. The Fed clarified that users of such accounts will not have access to intraday credit and discount window funding, account balances held at the Reserve Bank will not accrue interest, and access will be limited to payment services equipped with automatic overdraft prevention mechanisms.

"The Fed's mouthpiece": Discussions on interest rate cuts are nearly over; the Fed is now seriously discussing the possibility of interest rate hikes.

According to Nick Timiraos, a vocal advocate for the Federal Reserve, Fed officials have largely stopped discussing the issue that dominated the policy debate for the past two years—whether to cut interest rates—and instead began to seriously consider the opposite direction at last month's meeting: whether to raise rates. The minutes of the April policy meeting showed that "most participants stressed that if inflation continues to rise persistently above 2 percent, further tightening of policy may become appropriate." The April meeting was Powell's last as Fed chairman, and its minutes highlight how the Middle East conflict has reshaped the outlook for the interest rate decision-making committee. Warsh will take over the committee after being sworn in at the White House on Friday.

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year has slightly decreased to 53%, compared to approximately 61.3% the previous day.

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 97.3%, with a 2.7% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 87.2%, with a 2.4% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points and a 10.4% probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 45.8%, with a 1.2% probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points and a 53% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike.

Iran proposes cooperation with Oman to establish a long-term security mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae said on the evening of the 20th local time that Iran is cooperating with Oman and coordinating with relevant international professional organizations to promote the development of a security mechanism to ensure the long-term stability and security of the Strait of Hormuz and prevent any actions that threaten national interests. He stated that Iran has always been a defender of safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and is willing to cooperate with other littoral states to develop relevant agreements and mechanisms to ensure the safe passage of international shipping. He also emphasized that the new security mechanism should not only address shipping safety issues but also consider the costs of maritime security and the severe environmental damage caused by the military operations of the United States and its allies in the Gulf region. (CCTV News)

Iran says it will continue negotiations despite "strong distrust of the United States".

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae stated on the evening of the 20th local time regarding the Iran-US situation, the security of the Strait of Hormuz, and US pressure on Iran. He emphasized that Iran will continue to advance negotiations despite "strong distrust of the United States," while resolutely safeguarding its national interests. Baghae stated that Iran is currently exchanging information with the United States through Pakistani intermediaries. Tehran's core demands include ending the regional conflict, unfreezing Iranian overseas assets, and ceasing "maritime plundering" of Iranian shipping. He said that although the US's actions over the past year and a half have left a negative record, Iran is still advancing the diplomatic process with a "serious and goodwill" attitude, but maintains "strong and reasonable distrust" of the United States. (CCTV News)

Israeli opposition demands the swift dissolution of parliament.

According to Israeli media reports, the Israeli opposition pressured the ruling coalition on the 20th to expedite the bill to dissolve parliament. If the bill passes, Israel may hold early parliamentary elections. According to The Times of Israel, Melaf Ben-Ali, a member of parliament from the main opposition party, the "Have the Future" party, sent a letter to ruling coalition leader Ofir Katz, demanding that a parliamentary committee convene immediately to expedite the dissolution bill, stating that "the dissolution of parliament should be achieved as soon as possible." Earlier that day, the Israeli parliament passed a bill to dissolve parliament supported by the ruling coalition in a preliminary vote. According to Israeli legislative procedures, the bill still needs further review and multiple rounds of voting before it can officially take effect. Several opposition leaders welcomed this, seeing it as an important step towards early elections. Benny Gantz, leader of the opposition Blue and White National Unity party, called on the speaker to suspend the advancement of controversial legislation concerning military service exemptions, media reform, and the division of the Attorney General's powers, stating that bills with broad influence but lacking consensus should not continue at this stage. Media analysis suggests that the ruling coalition is attempting to accelerate key legislative agendas before the potential dissolution of parliament and the initiation of snap elections, while the opposition seeks to use this political window to expedite government change. Current disagreements surrounding issues such as snap elections, judicial reform, and conscription are further intensifying political maneuvering within Israel. (Xinhua)

Domestic News


From "Building Computing Power" to "Weaving a Computing Network": China's Computing Power Construction is Entering a New Stage . As artificial intelligence drives scientific research and becomes a new commanding height in global technological competition, every breakthrough in scientific intelligence, from training models with hundreds of billions of parameters to weather forecasting and new material development, requires powerful computing support. As a crucial infrastructure for current scientific research investment, an intelligently scheduled computing network is under accelerated construction. The National Supercomputing Internet has already gathered more than 30 intelligent computing and supercomputing centers, forming a unified network. This includes more than 3 million CPU cores and 200,000 GPU cards. Currently, China has initially achieved a 20-millisecond latency circle for eight major national computing power hub nodes. This means that the latency from one hub to other nodes is less than one-tenth of the time it takes for a human to blink. The fastest latency from the Chengdu-Chongqing hub to all nodes within the national network is 12.4 milliseconds; some areas have a latency of only 1 millisecond, truly realizing computing power "nearby and instantly accessible." The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that my country is currently accelerating the construction of a three-tiered computing power node system (hub, region, and edge) and two supporting networks: communication networks and power grids. The "China Computing Power Platform" will fully realize automated monitoring of computing power data by the end of this year, and innovative businesses such as "computing power supermarkets" and "computing power banks" are systematically lowering the barriers to using computing power. (CCTV News)
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.

Real-Time Popular Commodities

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-0.76

(-0.02%)

XAG

75.510

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CONC

99.80

1.54

(1.57%)

OILC

106.28

0.82

(0.78%)

USD

99.156

0.022

(0.02%)

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1.1624

0.0001

(0.01%)

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-0.0003

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