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2026-05-25 20:13:59
[US Treasury Pressure Rises, Eurozone Debt Risk Aversion Intensifies, Market Divergence Widens] ⑴ Natixis strategists point out that due to the relatively more resilient US economy, coupled with a structurally loose financial environment and a higher market tolerance for rising long-term yields, the medium-term upward pressure on US 10-year Treasury yields will significantly exceed that of similar Eurozone bonds. ⑵ In contrast, Eurozone economic growth is "more susceptible" to the impact of rising energy prices, which will largely limit the ECB's future interest rate hike space, making it difficult to reach the current market expectations. ⑶ Institutional data shows that the yield on German 10-year government bonds fell by more than 9 basis points on Tuesday, hitting a six-week low of 2.941%, reflecting a rising risk aversion to the Eurozone economic outlook. ⑷ From a trading psychology perspective, the market's pricing logic of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period" in the US economy continues to strengthen, while doubts about the resilience of Eurozone growth are driving funds to rotate from Eurozone bonds to safe-haven assets. This fundamental expectation gap is driving further divergence in yield trends across the transatlantic bond market.
