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2026-05-26 11:30:54
[Investment Banks Warn: Even if the Iran War Ends, the Rise in US Treasury Yields May Be Difficult to Reverse] 1. Strategists at Goldman Sachs and Barclays agree that even if the Iran war ends and inflationary pressures ease, the upward trend in US Treasury yields is unlikely to reverse completely in the short term. 2. Jonathan Hill, head of US inflation strategy at Barclays, points out that the real drivers of rising real interest rates are likely the continued expansion of debt, rising neutral interest rates, and the multiple interactions brought about by the development of artificial intelligence technology. 3. Phillip Lee, head of real money rate sales at Goldman Sachs, says that persistent fiscal deficits, increasing Treasury bond issuance, and market concerns about debt sustainability are increasingly becoming key factors explaining why investors demand higher returns to hold long-term bonds. He expects interest rates to continue rising. 4. Analysts point out that even if the Middle East conflict ends, market borrowing costs may remain near multi-year highs, continuing to put pressure on government finances and the overall economy.
