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2026-05-26 18:03:34
[UK CBI Retail Sales Balance Rises to -46, Still at a Historical Low; Weak Demand Suppresses Business Pricing] ⑴ Data released by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) on Tuesday showed that the retail sales balance rose to -46 in May from -68 in April, a three-month high. However, the April figure was the lowest since the survey began in 1983, and the May rebound only indicates a slowdown in the decline. ⑵ The June sales expectations balance rose to -36 from -60 in May, with retailers' assessment of their sales for the month falling to -35, the lowest since June 2025. On the orders side, the supplier orders balance was -39 in May, higher than -46 in April. ⑶ The quarterly business conditions balance rose to -15 from -34 in February, the highest since August 2025. However, the CBI's economic survey manager stated that retailers' sentiment has been negative for two consecutive years, and businesses plan to further cut investment and continue to reduce staff. (4) Retailers raised prices in May at the smallest pace since February 2025, which the Confederation of British Industry attributed to weak demand. Although official April retail sales figures showed sales excluding fuel were 1.1% higher year-on-year, businesses remained concerned that soaring energy prices due to the Iran war would squeeze household disposable income and drive up their own costs. (5) From a psychological perspective, UK consumer demand remains fragile, and retailers lack the ability to raise prices, which helps alleviate inflationary pressures on the Bank of England. However, if energy costs continue to be passed on, the central bank will still need to weigh whether to raise interest rates this year to address the inflationary shock. The market will continue to focus on the guidance of subsequent employment and inflation data for the path of monetary policy.
